World Series Preview

Welcome to my World Series preview. Since the Red Sox missed the playoffs for the first time in a few years I’ve had the chance to watch the playoffs as a slightly dispassionate fan; that is, I didn’t have a horse in the race. While I was rooting against the Yankees, I am far from a Rangers fan, and while Tim Lincecum is one of my favorite non-Red Sox players, and the Giants have a place in my heart, it’s tough to get excited about a team relying on Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell as their best hitters. So let’s get into the meat here.

I already covered the Rangers in my previous post, but something I’d like to point out is that their bullpen, which is being referred to as a weakness given its collapse in game one against NY, has actually been a strength so far. Going forward, it should be expected to perform even better in the World Series than it has previously in the playoffs. Here’s the postseason numbers:
v. TBR: 13 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 16 H, 5 BB, 15 K
v. NYY: 16 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 12 BB, 15 K
Total postseason: 3.64 ERA, 7.89 H/9, 5.16 BB/9, 9.1 K/9.

Hey, that’s pretty good. But it’s not as good as the regular season performance from the top of the pen (Feliz, Oliver, O’Day, and Ogando all had ERAs of 2.73 or lower, with good peripherals to support them). And it’s even better when you consider that four of those runs came from Darren Oliver, who is likely to fall out of favor as he’s not looked good, and three more of the runs came during Game 1 against New York, a game that was grossly mismanaged by Ron Washington.

What else do the Rangers have? Well, Josh Hamilton looks like he’s relatively healthy, which is a boon for Texas. The rest of the team is hitting too, with the notable exception of Vlad Guererro. And they have Cliff Lee, which makes up for their disadvantage at the back end of the rotation (Tommy Hunter having turned in an awful performance in Game 4). They made some glaring defensive mistakes against New York, but during the regular season were fifth in defensive efficiency, so I would expect their defense to be solid overall.

As for the Giants, they don’t have nearly the amount of offensive firepower that the Rangers have. Cody Ross is absolutely on fire, but no one else on the team had better than a .760 OPS in the Phillies series, and they only pushed across 19 runs in the six games. When you remove the Joe Blanton-started game, it’s even worse—just 13 runs in five games, or 2.6 per game. That won’t cut it against the Rangers, and while Lincecum and Cain are very good, the Rangers aren’t as lefty-heavy as the Phillies and it’s unlikely they’ll be stifled by Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner.

Nor is their bullpen particularly impressive. Brian Wilson is excellent, but Ramon Ramirez may have lost whatever was carrying him down the stretch, and while Javier Lopez pitched well, it’s tough to rely on him. Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla are good, but the bullpen isn’t quite a strength for San Francisco.

But the Giants have one of the best pitching rotations in the league. Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez are all capable of having no-hit stuff every night, and are very reliable. Madison Bumgarner is the best #4 starter in these playoffs, and I was surprised he was removed so quickly in his Game 4 start.

What I think this series will come down to are the two games that Cliff Lee starts. If the Giants can win one of them, whether by a fluke or by Lincecum pitching even better than Lee, then they are the favorite to win the series. But if Lee continues his seeming untouchability, it’s tough to pick against the Rangers, given their offensive and bullpen superiority. Since Lee hasn’t really shown anything in his postseason career that suggests he is vulnerable, I have to pick Texas in this one.

Rangers in 6, as Lee outduels Lincecum twice and then wins Game 6 in extra innings as their bullpen outperforms the Giants’.

ALDS Preview: Tampa Bay vs. Texas

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…

No, seriously. October is my favorite month. The weather is just to my liking, there’s Octoberfest beer in the taps, the NFL and European soccer seasons are in full swing, and the NHL and NBA seasons are about to begin. And most importantly, it’s time for the MLB playoffs.

This year is a little bittersweet, as of course the Olde Towne Teame, the Red Sox, didn’t qualify for the postseason, due to some trickery or another. But even though my team didn’t make it, my second-favorite team—whoever’s playing the Yankees—is still alive. And playoff baseball is great no matter who’s playing. Let’s get on to the preview.

Tampa Bay vs. Texas
It’s tough to figure out these two teams. The Rays seem to have a mediocre offense with several holes and a good, but not great pitching staff, but they led the AL East nearly wire-to-wire and were never in danger of falling out of a playoff spot. At the end of May I took a look at them and noted that their defense was performing at an exceptional, probably unsustainable level and their offense was showing an incredible prowess at hitting in high-leverage situations:

But with runners in scoring position, the Rays are hitting .287/.367/.451 for an OPS of .819—a huge increase over their .744 overall OPS. With men on any base they have an .809 OPS. In high leverage situations they have a .798 OPS. It’s not uncommon for an individual player to hit better than average in clutch situations over one or even a few seasons. David Ortiz did it from 2003-2007, for one. But for an entire team to do so is basically impossible.

Let’s take a look at those numbers now:
Overall OPS: .736
RISP: .790
Men on: .783
High Leverage: .794

What the heck! These numbers didn’t regress to the mean at all. Players across the league do hit slightly better with runners on than with the bases empty, but not to this extent. And there’s essentially no difference between high, medium, or low leverage hitting across the league. So how did the Rays do it for a whole year?

Well, the answer now is still the same as it was in May: they got lucky. They had a great year hitting in big situations, and that allowed a mediocre offense to score about 50 more runs than they “should” have if their hits had been spread out normally (according to Baseball Prospectus’ UEQR numbers). And again, the projection for the future is the same: their great luck may or may not continue, but digging down statistically, this is a mediocre offense. They finished sixth in the league in OBP and eighth in slugging percentage (just where they were in May) and yet managed to be third in runs. Everyone chalks this up to their aggressive baserunning, which is part of it, but the main reason is their situational hitting. Since I can’t predict what luck they’ll have, we’ll say that the Rangers have a significant advantage in offense over Tampa.

The Rangers offense, while better than Tampa’s, has its own questions. They got poor production from several offensive positions, and the Ballpark at Arlington is an extreme hitters’ park, so they have questions about hitting on the road. Rangers catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and center-fielders all hit for below a .700 OPS this year, which is pretty lousy. While the main culprit at first base, Justin Smoak, went to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade, his replacement, Mitch Moreland, is a rookie with under 200 plate appearances in his career. Even among the bright spots there are questions: Josh Hamilton is recovering from a broken rib, Vlad Guerrero had just a .748 OPS in the second half, and Nelson Cruz had a huge home/road split (1.099 OPS at home, .805 on the road).

On the pitching side, both teams once again have plenty of talent but plenty of questions. Both teams have a strong ace with previous postseason success, but Cliff Lee took game one, and even before then had a stronger postseason record. David Price surpassed his previous year’s innings total by nearly 50, so maybe a poor performance could have been expected. Beyond game one, the Rays have more experience, but C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis have had very strong years while Shields and Garza have struggled somewhat. Still I can’t much separate the teams beyond their number one starters—which speaks to the struggles of Shields, as coming into the season the Rays would have had a clear edge.

Both bullpens are very strong. Both have a dominant closer, though Neftali Feliz is probably slightly more dominant than Rafael Soriano. But that’s like saying Black Sabbath rocks slightly more than Iron Maiden (though of course, reasonable minds may differ). Both have a setup guy with a minuscule ERA who kind of came out of nowhere (Joaquin Benoit and Alexi Ogando), and the remainder of each bullpen is strong. While relief pitching is of course volatile, none of the key relievers for either team seem to be getting by on smoke and mirrors: the Rangers have five of the top 28 AL relievers in FIP (which corrects for defensive performance and stranded runners) this season (minimum 30 IP), while the Rays aren’t quite as deep but have three of the top ten.

Both teams are very well matched, but the Rangers have the best starting pitcher and, in a short series, he can pitch two of the five games. Were Cliff Lee more mortal, I’d say the Rays win in five, but I think the Rangers will take this one. Texas in five.

National League Playoffs

Instead of doing a formal playoff preview, I’m going to make a list of reasons I might root for each National League team. There are a few reasons for this, the biggest being that I don’t know as much about the National League as I do about the American League. Also, because I don’t have a rooting interest in the NL, these things will make the NL playoffs more entertaining to watch. Let’s begin!

San Francisco Giants
- They’ve never won a World Series since they moved from New York to San Francisco.
- AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful stadiums around, and the more games shown there on national television the better.
- Tim Lincecum is all kinds of awesome. He’s even entertaining in a Snuggie.

- Pablo Sandoval is fat, jolly, and a really good baseball player. He likes cake. His nickname is Kung Fu Panda. So many reasons!

- Buster Posey isn’t just an incredibly talented rookie catcher, but he also has one of the best names in baseball.
- Brian Wilson (according to his shirt in this clip) is “RAD.”

- The Giants have one of the best uniforms in baseball.
- When they wear jerseys with the Spanish version of their team name, they actually translate the word to “Gigantes” instead of just slapping a “Los” in front of Giants.

Atlanta Braves
- Jason Heyward, y’alls.

- I wouldn’t mind seeing a rematch of the 1996 Braves/Yankees World Series, as long as the Braves win this time.

Philadelphia Phillies
- If you don’t like watching Roy Halladay pitch, either you’re not a baseball fan or he’s pitching against your team.
- Chase Utley is like the National League’s Dustin Pedroia, only with more hair and less moxie.
- Shane Victorino has some awesome nicknames: “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” and “Pineapple Express.”
- If the Phillies win the World Series, someone very close to me gets another World Series ring.

Cincinnati Reds
- The possibility of Arthur Rhodes’s earrings starting a baseball brawl is always fun.
- Bronson Arroyo and his guitar.
- Aroldis Chapman throws faster than Ricky Vaughn.
- I’m not gonna lie. It’s difficult to find any reason to root for the Reds.

Phillies and Yankees! World Series Preview (sort of)

So it’s come to this. A classic Fall Classic. A World Series for the ages. The Yankees’ captain, Derek Jeter, is going to bring his professionalism and always-classy demeanor to the shortstop position and take on the Phillies’ rag-tag bunch of misfits. Troubled superstar Alex Rodriguez, reborn by his post-season outburst and finally able to shake the clutch demons off his back, heads up the rest of the offense. Brett Favre is just going to have fun out there, like he did at the barbeque in his Mississippi backyard in his Wrangler jeans.

Now that I’m out of clichés, let’s talk about the World Series.

The keys to World Series success for the Phillies are two-fold. First, they must Work. The. Count. In the ALCS, the Yankees managed to give most of their innings to their four best pitchers: C. C. Sabathia, A. J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. While I projected Phil Hughes to be the key to the Yanks’ post-season, Girardi managed to limit his innings enough that even though he didn’t pitch well, he wasn’t allowed to do enough damage. The Yanks were also helped by the extended ALCS schedule, which allowed them to avoid using their fourth starter, Chad “Who dat” Gaudin. Mainly, though, they were helped by the aggressive Angels’ hitters consistently having quick, bad at-bats. The Angels’ leader in walks during the regular season, Chone Figgins, had an awful post-season (3-35 with four walks), and no one else on the team other than Abreu can take a pitch, so the “bridge to Rivera” became a non-issue. If the Phillies can work the count and force Girardi to use as much of his middle-relief as possible, they can steal a game or two.

The second key to the World Series is Cliff Lee. As it stands, Lee will be facing off against C. C. Sabathia in the first game tonight. If Lee can win, the Yankees’ home-field advantage is neutralized, and they will have to rely on A. J. Burnett, Pettitte, or Gaudin to win two games (and C. C. to win games four and seven on short rest). While the Phillies’ bullpen is exceedingly suspect, Brad Lidge has pitched well so far in the post-season, and beyond Rivera and David Robertson (who Girardi refuses to use for some reason) the Yankees’ pen hasn’t been great either. Both Pedro Martinez and Cole Hamels could pitch wonderfully or terribly, but the same could be said about A. J. Burnett, and the Phillies have a significant advantage at fourth starter -– who the Yankees will have to use unless they want all three of their pitchers going on short rest. Offensively, the Yankees are certainly better, especially against left-handers, but the Phillies can hang with them.

It should be a great series, and I’m looking forward to it more than any the Red Sox didn’t play in since 2001. I just hope it won’t be decided on an umpiring mistake or a managerial error.

Picks:

Ian:
Phillies in seven
Series MVP: Cliff Lee
Series scapegoat: Joe Girardi

Alex:
Yankees in six
Series MVP: Mark Teixeira
Series scapegoat: Ryan Madson

Patrick:
Phillies in six
Series MVP: Jimmy Rollins
Series scapegoat: Nick Swisher

*Photo courtesy of of dbking via Creative Commons License