Projecting the Red Sox

October Madness II

Last fall, I made two sets of predictions: first I tried to guess every matchup for the FBS bowl season. That went very poorly. Then I tried to predict the NCAA Men’s Tournament field in October. This went a little bit better, as I predicted 32 of the 65 teams in the field, and even nailed a handful of seeds exactly. While the football experiment went so badly that I decided not to punish you all with a repeat performance, I had fun picking the tournament field, and this year 68 teams get to go instead of 65 (thankfully not 96). My goal this year: 40 teams, 10 exact seeds. We’ll call it the 40-10 Challenge.

I’ve also decided, as a means to help aid my quest for the 40-10, that I will forgo tossing my personal affections into my picks. So Penn State, Hofstra, and Boston College will all not be found below. Sorry, locals; it hurts me too.

East Regional—Newark, NJ1.

Michigan State: My top overall seed. Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers, Korie Lucious…Tom Izzo made a wise choice returning to East Lansing; there’s more talent there than with the Cavs.

16.Sam Houston State vs. Quinnipiac: Two teams that almost qualified last year get rewarded with a battle to face Izzo’s Spartans.

9. San Diego State: Led by Kawhi Leonard, the Aztecs will have one of the country’s most experienced and dangerous front courts.

8. Maryland: The Terrapins are a bit of an unknown after losing three seniors that averaged double digits scoring, including emotional leader Greivis Vasquez, but Sean Mosley is a leader and Jordan Williams could be the Terps’ next star.

5. Texas: Rick Barnes lost three starters from last year’s underachieving squad, but stellar freshman Tristan Thompson should help soften the blow.

12. Play-in Game! Washington State vs. Indiana: The Cougars could be fighting for the Pac-10’s dignity as a major conference while Tom Crean could be on the verge of making the Hoosiers a March mainstay once more.

13. Akron: Zeke Marshall should develop in the middle and Brett McKnight provides veteran leadership to the MAC champs.

4. Syracuse: No Big East team lost more than the Orange, but with Rick Jackson, Kris Joseph, and Scoop Jardine still in the mix, they’ll find themselves near the top of the conference again. Look out for the latest Melo in upstate New York, freshman center Fab Melo.

3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes lose Evan Turner, but return everyone else, and add an awesome freshman class led by Jared Sullinger.

14. Western Kentucky: One of the most consistently dangerous mid-major programs, the Hilltoppers could make early noise this year in the Puerto Rico tip-off with UNC and Minnesota as possible opponents.

11. Seton Hall: I was wrong on the Pirates last year; so help me god, I won’t be wrong again. New coach Kevin Willard, former Louisville assistant under Pitino, has one of the best offensive teams in the country, and a wide open Big East.

6. Virginia Tech: The Hokies lost nobody from last year’s 25-9 squad and are led by phenomenal talent Malcolm Delaney. They shouldn’t be left sweating on Selections Sunday again.

7. Butler: Last year’s Final Four darlings shouldn’t fall too far back, but Gordan Heyward’s early escape to the NBA does hurt a bit. Detroit has the talent to challenge in the Horizon, but nobody in conference can match their depth.

10. Clemson: The Tigers lost their coach (Oliver Purnell) and star (Trevor Booker), but have everyone else back, including seniors Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant.

15. Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers just missed out on a trip to the NCAAs last year, but a pair of former Gamecocks, Chad Gray and Mike Holmes, should be more than enough to get them there this year.

2. Kansas State: Frank Martin is developing the Wildcats into a perennial powerhouse, and Jacob Pullen should compete for Big 12 Player of the Year.

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ALDS Preview: Tampa Bay vs. Texas

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…

No, seriously. October is my favorite month. The weather is just to my liking, there’s Octoberfest beer in the taps, the NFL and European soccer seasons are in full swing, and the NHL and NBA seasons are about to begin. And most importantly, it’s time for the MLB playoffs.

This year is a little bittersweet, as of course the Olde Towne Teame, the Red Sox, didn’t qualify for the postseason, due to some trickery or another. But even though my team didn’t make it, my second-favorite team—whoever’s playing the Yankees—is still alive. And playoff baseball is great no matter who’s playing. Let’s get on to the preview.

Tampa Bay vs. Texas
It’s tough to figure out these two teams. The Rays seem to have a mediocre offense with several holes and a good, but not great pitching staff, but they led the AL East nearly wire-to-wire and were never in danger of falling out of a playoff spot. At the end of May I took a look at them and noted that their defense was performing at an exceptional, probably unsustainable level and their offense was showing an incredible prowess at hitting in high-leverage situations:

But with runners in scoring position, the Rays are hitting .287/.367/.451 for an OPS of .819—a huge increase over their .744 overall OPS. With men on any base they have an .809 OPS. In high leverage situations they have a .798 OPS. It’s not uncommon for an individual player to hit better than average in clutch situations over one or even a few seasons. David Ortiz did it from 2003-2007, for one. But for an entire team to do so is basically impossible.

State of Major High School Basketball

With prospects that arrive and depart from campus within a year, college hoops stars are often gone before we get to know them. Maybe it’s just me, but I’m always interested in where these guys came from as much as where they end up going. I decided to dig into three recent recruiting classes to see what the numbers tell us about where the future stars of the NCAA tourney and the NBA are coming from.

Son of a Beach!

9:09 PM EST, Thursday, July 8, 2010…doesn’t it feel like all of our sports lives are about to change as we know them? LeBron announced where he will be playing basketball for the next five years or so. As much as I’ve been smearing him for setting up this media carnival and showcase for his ego, I have to admit, I didn’t change the channel. Like it or not, whether LeBron ever wins a ring, the NBA next season is going to look vastly different than it did in ‘09-‘10, and LeBron is the at the center of this universe in flux. It fits in with the idea of LeBron the Global (Universal?) Icon, who over the past couple years seems much more determined perhaps than LeBron the player.

Granted, this is unfair: I’m torn on how to feel about LeBron’s considering fleeing the Cavs to get help to win his rings elsewhere. People are continuously saying “Jordan wouldn’t do that; Kobe wouldn’t do that,” but Jordan a) was unquestionably the best player who has ever lived and b) played in one of the worst eras talent-wise the NBA has seen. When Bird and Magic’s generation faded, teams could get by on one superstar being surrounded by marginal players, but even Jordan had Pippen, often overlooked and yet a member of the NBA’s silver anniversary team in his own right. Kobe almost left the Lakers after missing the playoffs, and the same people who are now chastising LeBron were the ones who were irate when the Lakers stole Pau Gasol from Memphis. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are playing during an extremely competitive time in the NBA. It takes six, seven, eight guys to win a title, not three.

Anyway, here is a key to what we’re learning about LeBron based on his decision:
Cleveland - Is loyal like a dog with a sick owner; admirable, but a poor professional decision.
Miami - He wants to win without the pressure of being “the man.”
Chicago - He wants to win with the pressure of being “the man” (in Jordan’s shadow no less).
New York - He wants to be a global icon.
New Jersey - I don’t know. It’s kind of crazy, but it’s kind of not. The icon level is low in Jersey, but when they move to Brooklyn? I don’t even know what I would make of this, but it’s not going to happen unless he has beer goggles that make Travis Outlaw look like David Thompson.
LA Clippers - He hates winning, money, and his ACLs and wants them to be shattered instantly.

Here is a breakdown of my thoughts as his infomercial unfolded on what it means for him, for the Eastern Conference, for the NBA over the next decade, and for us as human beings.

9:27 - Still waiting. I would like to note that I had the same beard as LeBron my senior year of college, but I don’t hear anyone calling him Abe Lincoln.

9:28 - So it’s Miami…Pat Riley, Bosh, Wade….uh…Beasley (for now)….umm…Chalmers? This is what we suspected for the past 24 hours, but now that it’s final, let’s quickly break down what it means for everyone involved.

First and foremost, the Heat. They now have three all-stars and two superstars to go with a handful of second-round picks and not much money to fill out the squad. The Celtics won a title with three just-past-their-prime guys in Pierce, Garnett, and Ray Allen, so there is some precedent for this, despite what everyone in the media wants you to think. However, these three are all younger and in their primes; that’s the difference here and why everyone wants to, to quote Denny Green, “crown they ass.” But let’s pump the breaks. The Heat have no money to invest elsewhere. They have no quality point guard and no depth. Let’s imagine that the Heat run into the Lakers in the finals next season. Personally, I take Gasol over Bosh, who has played 11 playoff games in seven years and never won a playoff series, and I think Kobe and Lebron cancel each other out. The Lakers would have no one left to equal Wade on their own, BUT a cast of five or six decent role players, all giving Gasol and Kobe rest while El Tres Grande can’t afford to come out? The Celtics were in a position to win because of the new big three, but they were the best team in 2008 because of guys like James Posey, Eddie House, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, and P.J. Brown. I don’t see how Miami could possibly fill out their roster with quality unless their three stars take less money (not likely, isn’t that what a large part of this was about?) One last thought on the Heat: LeBron was asked how he planned on sharing the spotlight in Miami and responded, “For me, it’s about everyone having their own spotlight and doing what’s best for the team.” What?

And then there is the poor Cavs. Jesus. “It’s not about leaving Cleveland…” is the equivalent of “It’s not you, it’s me.” They’re going to go from back-to-back top seeds in the East to out of competition for the next decade. Yes, it will be that drastic. Frankly, I think the Cavs should be shipped to Seattle. Seriously. Seattle should’ve never lost its team in the first place, they have a good fan base, and the city of Cleveland really just needs to be single for awhile and focus on itself. Five years from now, we’ll give them the Hornets or something. By the way, who is their best player now? The ghost of Antawn Jamison? Mo Williams? (Shuddering.)

9:49 - ESPN shows a burning LeBron jersey on a street in Cleveland. His response: “I can’t get involved in that.” No one has burned their home this badly since David Koresh.

Twenty-four hours ago, we thought the Knicks were going to obtain the services of the King, and being a Celtics fan, I said, “pretty please.” With LeBron and Amare, the Knicks become a 50-win team, fourth or fifth seed because there is again, no point guard, and Amare doesn’t play defense or rebound well for his size. Now with just Amare and no LeBron? We also just found out David Lee was signed and traded to Golden State, not for Monta Ellis as had been reported, but high upside risk Anthony Randolph and a couple of role players. I’m saying an eight seed and prompt first round exit. Sadly, the remaining Knick fans in the room are applauding that idea happily. I also predict that by the All-Star Break, Amare will be deeply regret underrating spending his entire career playing with Jason Kidd and Steve Nash and will be putting in calls to Tony Parker, Carmelo, and Chris Paul, pleading with them to join him on his 45-37 team.

The Eastern Conference as a whole has fluctuated a bit. The Cavs are annihilated from contention, and the 2001 All-NBA team…I mean, 2010 Boston Celtics and Orlando should still be among the elite contenders for a title. Whether the Celtics window just closed or has a year to go remains to be seen, but they are one DeJuan Blair away from having the All-Bad Knees team after signing Jermaine O’Neal, who, somehow, I think the Heat will miss. The Heat become a top three team unquestionably and where they fit among those other two teams depends on who else dons a Heat jersey this winter. The Bulls, Bucks, and Hawks are decent, but a definite level below the previous three teams. The biggest loser besides the Cavs (and new coach with an empty cupboard Byron Scott)? The Nets, who actually have a foursome of promising youngsters in Derrick Favors, Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, and Terence Williams, tons of spending cash, a rich new owner, future Brooklyn arena, and currently nothing to show for it. The worst thing they could do, however, is take that money and go hand out bad contracts to the leftover free agents still grubbing for fat deals.

The other big winners? Jarvis Varnardo, Da’Sean Butler, Dexter Pitman, and Latavious Williams. Not only did these second-round picks luck out by getting drafted, but they got drafted by a team that is a legit finals contender, AND has at least eight holes to fill in their lineup on the cheap. Williams spent last winter playing in the freakin’ D league after skipping college. Talk about lucking out.

Out west, I’d urge people not to overlook Lee going to the Warriors, where Randolph never got a legitimate chance to show his mettle. Lee’s a great scorer and rebounder, but his weakness is defense, and he just went to the one team in the NBA that doesn’t care whether you play defense or not. Look around the conference—Phoenix just got a lot weaker without Amare in the post, Dallas kept Dirk but overpayed Brendan Haywood (shades of Erick Dampier—some people never learn) and Utah lost Carlos Boozer. The West should be in flux too after free agency finishes up and may actually be weaker than the East for the first time in over a decade.

Which brings me to my last point: A bold prediction. Jon Barry predicted two NBA titles for the Heat over the next five years. Michael Wilbon went three in four years. Me? I think Kevin Durant wins more rings over the next decade than this current Heat squad. Under the radar this week (the way it should be), the defending NBA scoring champ and 22-year-old wunderkind Durant signed a five-year extension to stay with Oklahoma City, a rising team that has surrounded Durant with young talent and smart management/coaching. As a player, one-on-one, Durant is not better than LeBron, but in regard to intangibles and how he goes about being a part of a team, I’d much prefer Durant over the next five years than LeBron. He pushed a top seeded Laker team to six games despite being outgunned by a superior squad, has the work ethic and developing game to continue growing as an elite player, and contrary to popular belief, he’s not just a scorer: this past season, there were dramatic spikes in his rebound, steal, block, and assist numbers. At only 22, those should continue to trend upwards. So you heard it here first: OKC is where the future of the NBA is at.

Okay, so maybe that wasn’t so brief. But on a night where everything has changed, it’s not so bad to simmer and dwell on the shifting battle lines of the NBA.

World Cup: Knockout Part 2, and, Well, the Refs

This hasn’t been a good tournament for referees. Most U.S. fans are familiar with the bad calls the national team faced in the group stages, but the two calls that affected games Sunday were even worse. First, a goal from a Frank Lampard shot that clearly went over the goal line, which would have tied their game with Germany, was disallowed, and then in the later game, the first Argentine goal was clearly offside. England played very poorly in the second half (and any time you give up four goals you can’t really blame a bad call), and Mexico was outplayed by Argentina, but regardless of their effect on the final result it’s disgraceful to have such poor refereeing.

Much of the discussion about “fixing” the officiating has centered around the use of instant replay. While I personally think replay on goals would be a good thing (or adding extra officials to serve as goal judges), I am surprised that the calls which seem obvious and are made correctly in most other games are being missed in this tournament, which is the biggest spectacle for the sport. I watch a decent amount of soccer, and the three worst-officiated games in my memory were all in the World Cup. While it’s possible I am remembering these games because they were more important than the English Premier League games I watch the rest of the year, I think it’s fair to question why the referees, who should be the best in the world, have made so many more blatant mistakes in the World Cup than in league games. I don’t pretend to know the answer, but it’s something I haven’t seen much discussion of.

On to the games:
Monday, June 28
10:00 AM: Netherlands v. Slovakia
One thing the World Cup tournament setup is pretty good at is separating the quality teams from the weaker ones for the early rounds and beginning of the knockout rounds. Unless a strong team suffers a surprise loss (like England did) or on the rare occasion two strong teams get put in one group (see Brazil and Portugal), most of the matchups in the round of 16 are one-sided. But, this is of course a good thing, as it makes the later matches more exciting.

This game is currently in halftime as I write this, and the Netherlands are leading 1-0 on a great Arjen Robben shot. With Robben back and close to 100% I don’t see the Netherlands losing this game, and I think they could present a strong challenge to Brazil (or certainly Chile if they can pull off an upset).

2:30 PM: Chile v. Brazil
Much has been made of Brazil’s “new style” of play, which is a more defensive, physical style rather than the stylish, flashy “joga bonita” they are famous for. This game today against Chile will be the first real test of this. While they did play Portugal, that game didn’t matter much for either team, so it’s tough to draw conclusions from it.

Have the South American teams really been dominant this World Cup? As it stands now, all five South American teams have advanced to at least the round of 16, with four of them winning their group. Brazil and Argentina are surely two of the best teams in the world; no one denies this. But only one of the South American teams in the knockout round had to defeat a strong team on the way there, and in that game Chile lost to Spain, but both advanced due to Switzerland’s draw with Honduras. Uruguay has looked good, but was in a weak group with Mexico, South Africa, and a French team that fell apart. Paraguay’s group included the other European team to underperform, Italy, along with Slovakia and the worst side in the tournament, New Zealand (with whom Paraguay tied). Even Argentina has yet to face a team stronger than Mexico, and looked vulnerable at times in that game until they scored an offsides goal.

Brazil and Argentina are likely to progress deep into the tournament, but the oft-repeated “South American dominance” idea is greatly overblown.

Tuesday, June 29
10:00 AM: Japan v. Paraguay
This will be the first test for Paraguay, and it’s not even a particularly big one. Japan does have strength and seems to work well as a team, though, so I like them in this game.

2:30 PM: Spain v. Portugal
Here’s the game I’m waiting for. Portugal has plenty of talent, but it’s tough to tell exactly how much since they are some of the worst divers and embellishers in the tournament. While this can be effective, it depends on getting calls from the refs, which doesn’t always happen. There’s also some element of “crying wolf” that may prevent Portugal from getting legitimate fouls called, which is fine in my opinion, since diving is essentially cheating.

Spain has played very well in all their games. Even in their loss to Switzerland they had many more good opportunities than the Swiss and far outplayed them, but just didn’t find the goal. They are great passers, and while their finishing at times can be suspect, they spend so much time with the ball that they usually only need one goal to win.

Optimism Reigns or Rain on Optimism?

Who is going to prolong Boston’s run of success?
Ahh, summer. If you’re not a baseball fan, it can be the slowest time of the year, the few month period where baseball is the only sport going on until NFL training camps convene and the season begins at the end of August. With the drafts now completed for the NBA and NHL, it is a time where fans who enjoy having three or four of their teams competing at the same time are forced to dwell on what could’ve been this past year and be optimistic about what is to come.

Boston fans still smarting from a Game 7 loss at the hands of the Lakers really have nothing to complain about. From 2001 to 2008, the city underwent an unprecedented run of success not just for Boston, but any sports city. We won six titles in eight finals appearances across three different teams. The Red Sox broke an 86-year string of disappointment only to repeat three years later, the Celtics won their first title since 1986, and the Patriots dynasty won the franchise’s first three Super Bowl titles. In the past decade, Boston teams have 25 combined playoff appearances, dominating other four-sport, four-team cities such as Phoenix/Arizona (13), Atlanta (13), and DC (10). Toronto has 14 and I even gave them the six postseason appearances of the Toronto Argonauts in the CFL.

These things go in cycles, of course. The nineties were a relatively down time in Boston sports with only the Bruins being a consistent playoff contender and never reaching the Stanley Cup. With the Celtics lost title, the Bruins historically embarrassing second round exit to the Flyers after being up three games to none, and the Patriots losing their first home playoff game of the Belichick/Brady era, there are ominous signs of lean years approaching. Both the Celtics and Patriots are led by aging veterans and the Bruins are starting to have the stench of perennial underachievers.

That being said, we still have a lot going for us, including four bonafide playoff teams, and as I said, ‘tis the off-season when optimism can reign supreme. The question is this: Whom am I most optimistic about for when the leaves turn orange and baseball goes into hibernation?

The case for the Patriots
First and foremost, we still have Brady and we still have Belichick. We also still have the veteran offensive line led by Logan Mankins, who may be the best interior lineman in the NFL, and rising tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Meriweather are Pro Bowl caliber defenders. Randy Moss is still “straight cash, homey” and the Patriots have gotten a much needed infusion of youth in the past two drafts that should hopefully start to pay dividends this season. Specifically, I’m excited about cornerback Darius Butler and rookie linebacker Brandon Spikes, who’s got the leadership and instincts reminiscent of former Pats stud Mike Vrabel.

The case against the Patriots
There have been reports that Tom Brady is no longer seeing eye to eye with the coaching staff and other veterans, causing fans to worry if he’s gone too “Hollywood” on us. Mankins has requested a trade (never a good sign), and you have to wonder when that offensive line will go from being “veteran” to “old.” We have no idea what, if anything, we’ll get from Wes Welker, and the options to replace him are the gritty but limited Julian Edelman, second-year man Brandon Tate, rookie deep threat Taylor Price, and Torry Holt, who is entering the “Babe Ruth with the Braves” portion of his career. The scheduling doesn’t do us any favors with non-division games against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Minnesota, San Diego, and Baltimore. Perhaps the biggest concern of all isn’t anything to do with the Patriots themselves, but the fact that the Jets and Dolphins have continued to get significantly better; they have better people in their front offices now than in the past, and have been huge players in the free agency market, with the Jets acquiring Antonio Cromartie, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Santonio Holmes, and the Fins picking up Karlos Dansby and Brandon Marshall. The Patriots could possibly go 10-6 again and not make the playoffs.

The case for the Bruins
Seguin! Seguin! Seguin! Thanks to the inept Maple Leafs trading two high first-round picks in successive years to the B’s for Phil Kessel, the Bruins drafted forward Tyler Seguin Friday night, one of two players in the draft to be considered star caliber. The Globe’s pre-draft coverage of Seguin detailed how following a playoff loss to number one overall pick Taylor Hall and a superior Windsor team, Seguin went into seclusion, working out and training with intense competitive fervor for sometimes ten hours a day leading up to the draft. Kid’s got moxie. The Bruins’ off-season will also look to be the most animated of the three teams; they’ve already traded playoff scapegoat Dennis Wideman, resigned hard-nosed young defender Johnny Boychuk, and acquired talented scorer Nathan Horton. Seguin’s arrival gives them a back log at center, but the kid can play some wing and the Bruins have promised more moves are on the horizon.

The case against the Bruins
How do you bounce back after coughing up a 3-0 lead in a Game 7 of a series you once led three games to none? The second round exit was a stain on the franchise and nearly wiped out the memory of the gutsy first round upset over Ryan Miller and the Sabres. In fact, it was probably the worst playoff loss after being up 3-0 since this infamous game. Scoring was the chief concern this year, and despite the talent down the middle, there is no promise that the Bruins will get enough from the wings to change that. Mark Recchi, the veteran leader, is a free agent-to-be, and there is concern about the sizeable contract of now backup goaltender Tim Thomas. At what point do we start calling former top sixteen picks Zach Hamill and Joe Colbourne busts?

The case for the Celtics
Out of the three, they’re coming off the most successful previous season, and the heart and soul of the team, Paul Pierce, should have a few good years left. Despite an erratic and sometimes downright puzzling finals, Rajon Rondo has established himself as one of the top five point guards in the league, and is locked up for the next five years. Rasheed Wallace, we hardly knew ye: the NBA career technical foul leader’s pending retirement, paired with some shrewd contract restructuring with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, could leave the Celtics enough money to pursue a second-tier big man, the likes of a Carlos Boozer, as well as set them up to have Pierce, Allen, and Garnett’s contracts all expire at the same time. Celtics fans will love rookie Avery Bradley—he fits the Celtics mold of an athletic, stud defender who should develop an offensive game and give Rondo (fourth in the NBA in minutes last season) and Allen (if he returns) a breather off the bench. It was only a year ago that Bradley was ranked ahead of top overall pick John Wall by ESPN scouts.

The case against the Celtics
Another year goes by, another hundred games of wear and tear on Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. I’d ask at what point the age starts to take its toll, but I think we already saw it this past season. The Celtics should still be good enough to be a top four team in the East, but their window of being a legitimate title contender may have just ended at the Staples Center last Thursday. Also, what happens with Doc Rivers? I have a feeling he’s going to leave, and it’s not easy to find quality NBA coaches. One thing that the Celtics have no control over is what the rest of the league will look like. LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, David Lee, Joe Johnson…all available and possibly on the move. Personally, I think James is out of Cleveland, which will probably immediately drop them out of playoff contention. Orlando will certainly be around, and if talks to acquire Chris Paul go anywhere, they will be downright scary. But what if James joins Wade in Miami? What if he takes someone like Amare with him to Chicago to team with Derrick Rose? If he joins Jay-Z with the Nets, they go from a 12-win team to a suddenly intriguing squad with a scoring point guard in Devin Harris, two young big men with high ceilings in Brook Lopez and rookie Derrick Favors, and potentially solid role players in Terence Williams, Courtney Lee, and Yi Jianlian. Whatever happens, next season’s Eastern Conference should have a completely different look to it, and where the C’s fit in will largely depend on how they replenish themselves with youthful talent and how starting center and resident banger Kendrick Perkins comes back from knee surgery.

Ideally, I’d like to see all three teams at least continue to make the playoffs, and in truth, that’s what I expect of each. But the law of averages tells us that disappointment will eventually rear its ugly head and one or more of these teams will go through another rough stretch. So whom am I most optimistic about?

I promised myself when the Bruins were eliminated that I wouldn’t just go back to them, that they had to earn my trust back, like a friend who had lied to me. Their Game 7 loss made me want to reenact the shower and crying scene from Ace Ventura. However, I trust in Coach Claude Julien and I trust in General Manager Peter Chiarelli. I like the guys they’ve built this team around, and defensive stalwart Zdeno Chara is still in his prime. Injuries and inconsistency hurt the team this year and you got the sense that they never were operating on all cylinders.

I believe in the moves they’ve made so far, and the moves they’re going to make. I believe in Tyler Seguin. I believe in goalie Tuukka Rask. I believe that over the next few years, I will see the Bruins in their first Stanley Cup since 1990. I believe in the B’s.

*Photo of Tom Brady courtesy of Keith Allison via Creative Commons License
**Photo of Tuukka Rask courtesy of 4rilla via Creative Commons License

World Cup: KNOCKOUT!

So, it’s here. Just 16 games remain in the World Cup, and you don’t need an expert, or even me, to tell you that they’re all important. With France and Italy falling short, there are some surprise teams hanging around, and of course Landon Donovan and company are through as group C winners, so you’ll see bandwagon-hoppers multiply as well as columns like this drivel be hashed and re-hashed as writers tell us how far they have their fingers in their ears.

Let’s get to the games before I get any more upset.

Saturday, June 26
10:00 AM: Uruguay v. South Korea
I’ll admit I don’t know much about either of these teams. Uruguay has looked impressive in the group stages, but was facing poor competition in a disgruntled France, inconsistent Mexico, and South Africa, who’s only there because they’re the home side. They’re likely the best of that group, but have certainly had a lucky run of opponents so far.

I haven’t watched any of South Korea’s games. Sorry. But, I didn’t expect them to do much and I think they’ll lose against Uruguay. They were second, but only had four points, beating a poor Greece team, getting trounced by Argentina, and drawing with Nigeria with help from Nigeria’s striker Yakubu missing the easiest chance of the tournament (though he did get a penalty moments later).

2:30 PM: United States v. Ghana
While the USA barely made it into the knockout stage, it does seem that they are a dangerous team, as two goals were disallowed and they had numerous other chances. While finishing is a skill, I can’t help but think that they got unlucky with both the bad calls and the ball just not bouncing the right way, and if they can produce as many quality chances against Ghana as they have this tournament so far, they should be able to put more of them away.

Most of the odds-makers have this match as close to even, but I’d give the edge to the USA. I think the odds-makers are overrating the “home continent” effect, as it’s not a particularly short trip for Ghanaians, there are a lot of Americans at the World Cup, and it’s questionable how many South Africans would root for Ghana. Some prediction systems don’t even account for Michael Essien being out, and he is one of the best players in the world. I also think the U.S. is being underrated. But it should be a good match, as both teams play positive football, and while they’ll both be wary of mistakes, they should move forward.

Sunday, June 27
10:00 AM: England v. Germany
I’m very excited for this game. Germany has played well this tournament (they always do) and play a skilled yet physical game, and while England hasn’t played as well, they have numerous star players and it just takes them working together to produce a great performance. I kind of doubt that will happen, as I think there are a lot of egos on that England team, but it will be fun to watch them implode.

I’d like to direct your attention to German midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger and point out first, his awesome name, and second, this outfit he is wearing. The English blog I link to makes fun of it, but I’m kind of into it. Kind of Elfish. Let your freak flag fly, Bastian.

2:30 PM: Mexico v. Argentina
I think Argentina can lose in this tournament against a team with a strong defense which can keep Lionel Messi somewhat in check and score with quick counterattacks. Mexico isn’t that team, though. Argentina is really fun to watch, however, and it’s worth it to watch the Best Player in the World in every game he plays. So do it. Or else.

World Cup Group Stage: The Last Games

The final round of the group stage isn’t likely to hold as much drama as group C did, but there are some interesting scenarios, especially in group H, as well as the possibility of some Cinderella teams making it in if they can come up with one more strong performance. Let’s take a look.

Thursday, June 24
10:00 AM: Italy v. Slovakia, Paraguay v. New Zealand

So for some reason Group F plays before Group E, but I am guessing maybe it’s because Group E’s teams are more interesting, or perhaps because group E includes Japan, or something. Anyway, the 10:00 AM group is pretty, as New Zealand’s surprise draw with Italy (and Italy’s terrible performance so far) leaves the group pretty open. Paraguay is likely to get in, as they have the edge in points, goal differential, and they play New Zealand, who are (theoretically) the worst team in the tournament. They win the group with a win and would also win it with a tie as long as Italy doesn’t win by more than one goal. Winning the group would let them avoid playing the dangerous Netherlands, as they’d match up instead with Denmark or Japan.

If the Paraguay game goes as it’s supposed to, Italy can be in with a win or draw against Slovakia, while Slovakia would need a win to leapfrog Italy and New Zealand. Italy is likely to take second in this group, but the Netherlands shouldn’t be scared of them just because they are the defending champions, as this is the weakest team Italy has fielded in a while, their starting keeper is out (though their backup is also good), and while their performance so far is disappointing and surprising, it’s tough to call it shocking.

2:30 PM: Netherlands v. Cameroon, Japan v. Denmark
Netherlands is all but assured of taking the top spot here, as they would have to lose and someone would have to win big in the other game for them to finish second. Between Japan and Denmark, Japan has the lead in goal differential, so it’s possible they will be playing for a tie, while Denmark will need to win and should be pushing forward. The problem with this for Japan is that defense isn’t exactly their strength, so the Danish attack could break them down given enough time. With the Netherlands likely to field a B team, all eyes should be on this game.

Friday, June 25
10:00 AM: Brazil v. Portugal, Ivory Coast v. N. Korea
Portugal beat North Korea badly enough that they are in unless they lose by about six goals to Brazil. They’re far too good for that, so it’s all decided except the seeding in this group. Unfortunately, group H is mostly up in the air, so there’s not much advantage to winning this group for either Brazil or Portugal. So you’re likely to see a boring morning as both teams will avoid cards, play backups, and look ahead to the knockout stage.

North Korea was the first “team that no one expected to perform well” to actually perform like that, giving up seven goals in an absolute shellacking by Portugal. The Ivorians played better, but with Didier Drogba not at 100% it was always going to be tough for them to advance. This game doesn’t matter, but might be more fun to watch than the other one.

2:30 PM: Chile v. Spain, Switzerland v. Honduras
Usually I am pretty good at figuring out the different scenarios in these final group stages. But this one is a doozy. I spent about 20 minutes playing with it in my head and still wasn’t sure, so I turned to the internet to help.

Chile is on top of the group with six points. Spain and Switzerland each have three, and Honduras has zero. Spain is probably the best team of the group, but they lost to Switzerland somewhat unluckily in a game they dominated, and as Switzerland is likely to beat lowly Honduras, Spain will probably need a win to advance. Unfortunately for Chile, they are only up by two in goal differential over Switzerland, so if they lose to Spain and the Swiss win by more than one, Chile would finish in third on goal differential and miss out on the group stage. If they lose 2-1 and Switzerland only wins 1-0, though, they would be through on the third tiebreaker, which is total goals scored (they also hold the fourth tiebreaker over Switzerland by virtue of their 1-0 victory over them).

Because Chile can win the group with a draw or with a 2-1 loss, they are likely to play an attacking style (even though they could win with a 0-0 draw), which should make for a very exciting match. Switzerland may look to pile on the pressure in the hopes of winning by multiple goals, which would increase their chances of winning a tiebreaker. If you’re confused, just watch the games—it will be explained to you as the picture becomes clearer. Heck, watch the games anyway.

World Cup Group Stage: The Last Matches

Here’s where the World Cup gets awesome. While there may be some games that don’t matter for anything other than pride, the final matchups in the group stages are definitely some of the more interesting games on the whole. It’s particularly fascinating how, due to the tiebreaker system, teams can have different goals other than simply winning—for example, if they are trailing in goal differential, they will have to win by more than one; or perhaps if they are already assured a place in the next round, they will be simply trying to get through the game without being carded or injured.

Without further ado, here’s an examination of what teams will be playing for in the first two days of the final group stage matches (Note: the final matches of each round are played simultaneously so the teams don’t know the results of their group-mates before their own match):

Tuesday, June 22
Group A: South Africa v. France, Uruguay v. Mexico, 10:00 AM ET
Uruguay and Mexico both have four points, and South Africa and France both have one. If Uruguay and Mexico draw, they’re both in; however, the runner-up in the group will likely go on to play Argentina, while team that wins the group would play either South Korea, Greece, or if everything breaks right, Nigeria. Uruguay is currently leading the group on goal differential, so don’t expect Mexico to play for a tie because even if they lose, France or South Africa would have to win their match by a few goals to overtake them. Uruguay has looked like the stronger team thus far, but it’s certainly anyone’s game.

As for the other game, it could be a bit of a snooze. Either team would need to win and make up at least four in goal differential to take the second spot in the group. But on the other hand, both teams should have a decent amount of pride to play for—the French after their striker was sent home and two of their coaches resigned, and the team refused to practice in protest, and South Africa in what will likely be the home side’s final match. Of course, South Africa isn’t a very good team, and France seems in complete disarray, and either side advancing is an extreme long shot, so who knows what will happen.

Group B: Argentina v. Greece, South Korea v. Nigeria, 2:30 PM
Argentina is nearly a lock to win this group, being three points and +five in goal differential ahead of both Greece and South Korea, and even if they step off the gas a little they should handle Greece. Nigeria was unlucky to lose both its games, especially the second, which they had to play a man down for the last 60 minutes. But if Nigeria can win and Greece loses as expected, Nigeria will be through and given a clean slate against (probably) Mexico or Uruguay. South Korea’s 4-1 loss to Argentina seemed a much more likely result than their 2-0 win over Greece, so I like Nigeria to take this one and sneak into the round of 16, provided they keep their composure.

Wednesday, June 23
Group C: Algeria v. United States, England v. Slovenia, 10:00 AM
If you’ve read this far, you’re either related to me (Hi, Dad!) or you have likely paid enough attention to the World Cup to know about the controversial disallowed goal in the U.S.’s previous game against Slovenia (or both, since I know my Dad follows sports). So I won’t waste time going into that (for a better writer’s take that essentially echoes my opinion, check out Joe Posnanski’s article). Fortunately for the U.S. team, if they beat Algeria as they should, they’ll get into the next round no matter what happens between England and Slovenia. Even if they draw, they could still be in if England loses or draws, and England has looked quite unimpressive and lethargic after Stephen Gerrard’s goal in the first game. Not only is this exciting because of my nationality, but the U.S. team really seems to play a positive brand of football with a minimum of diving and acting, which is a style of play I tend to support.

The more interesting game from a neutral standpoint is the England/Slovenia match. England is a team full of stars that has been underperforming thus far, looking disorganized and lacking leadership. Slovenia, on the other hand, is lending credence to the idea that teams who work together and work hard can do better than teams full of talent, as they are generally sound defensively and have taken advantage of opponents’ mistakes. Their run may end if they meet a team with more skill that can, you know, keep their back line intact (I’m looking at you, Oguchi Onyewu), but they’re certainly a good story and I have to say I’ll be pulling for them (it doesn’t hurt that England didn’t select anyone from my favorite English Premier League team, and includes stars from rivals Chelsea and Manchester United).

Scenarios? If Slovenia wins or draws, they’re in. If they lose, they’d need the U.S. to lose or draw. England needs to win, or draw and hope for a U.S. loss.

Group D: Serbia v. Australia, Germany v. Ghana, 2:30 PM
It’s unfortunate for Ghana that they could only manage a draw against Australia, as now they have to play Germany and, unless they win, will need help from Australia to advance. Unless Germany has a player sent off, they’re likely to win handily, as they are one of the best teams in the tournament. That would give them the inside track to win the group, as they have a much better differential than Serbia (the other contender). If Ghana can draw, Germany could miss out on the second round altogether with a Serbia win, so look for the Germans to play hard.

Australia looked like a tough team coming in, and have turned in two nearly opposite performances. I wrote them off after their game with Germany, as they looked quite bad, but it now seems likely that Germany just played very well, as Australia was able to draw Ghana with only ten men. But because of their awful game against Germany, Australia will need to win, hope Germany wins, and make up the five-goal difference between them and Ghana to advance. They’re a long shot.

I think the World Cup is nearly perfectly paced. They cram 48 games into the first two weeks, and while there are many story lines woven among them, it’s tough to catch them all without taking a vacation, and you don’t need to since they’re not all great and important games. But as time goes on, the games become more important and fewer, with more time to rest, analyze, and plan your next trip to the bar to cheer. By July 11, the vuvuzelas will be at full volume.