NFL Picks: Midseason Check-up

Alex: It looks like we were right about the west divisions being a crap shoot. In the AFC, the Chargers look like a mess, but after pulling out a win against Tennessee, I won’t rule out their typical second half surge, especially with Vincent Jackson’s return on the horizon. A record of 9-7 could win the division. In the NFC, I stand by my selection of Seattle, especially since 8-8 could win over there. What I feel great about is that I was the only one to pick the Steelers, Giants, and Falcons to all win their divisions. I also feel good about the Patriots, though omitting the Jets from the playoffs could prove to be an oversight, but somebody good is going to miss the AFC playoffs. My NFC wild card picks, however, are a mess. I totally whiffed on the Cowboys; I should’ve known better. They have an awful secondary and the worst O-line in the NFL. The Lions, however, I insist would’ve been in the mix had Stafford and others not gotten hurt, and for you gamblers out there, the Lions, while only 2-5, are 6-1 against the spread.

Patrick: Not too bad with my picks, I guess. If last week’s game against the Steelers was any indication, the Saints are about to pick things up and, most importantly, play defense like we all know they can. I probably shouldn’t have picked the Bengals, but whatever. As much of a mess as that team is, I’ll still root for a team with both Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. That’s just fun. Also, Dhani Jones wears really fly bow ties. At least I picked the Ravens for one of the wildcard spots. Either them or the Steelers will win that division, while the other gets one of the wildcards. I was dead wrong about the Panthers also, but that’s okay because I feel like the Bucs have a real shot at one of the NFC wildcards. I hope that happens, because then maybe someone in Florida will finally be able to watch a Bucs game on TV. I still feel good about the Rams taking the NFC West because the Seahawks and everyone else in that division couldn’t beat the 1-8 WSU Cougars. I propose we give the NFC West division to the AFC West, and let the Chiefs and Raiders both make the playoffs.

Ian: This is a mess. I think I can get a pass for the Cowboys and Vikings picks, as they have the talent, but complete breakdowns due to penalties and poor coaching are pretty hard to predict. I’d like to assume that if someone is one of the lucky 32 who gets to be an NFL head coach that they kinda know what they’re doing. But I have no excuse for my Broncos and 49ers picks other than “The divisions are awful, so it’s a crapshoot” and “Hey, I picked Bradford in the TNIIB Fantasy league.” I guess six of my picks have a shot. I don’t have much faith in the Bengals or Redskins either.

ALDS Preview: Tampa Bay vs. Texas

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…

No, seriously. October is my favorite month. The weather is just to my liking, there’s Octoberfest beer in the taps, the NFL and European soccer seasons are in full swing, and the NHL and NBA seasons are about to begin. And most importantly, it’s time for the MLB playoffs.

This year is a little bittersweet, as of course the Olde Towne Teame, the Red Sox, didn’t qualify for the postseason, due to some trickery or another. But even though my team didn’t make it, my second-favorite team—whoever’s playing the Yankees—is still alive. And playoff baseball is great no matter who’s playing. Let’s get on to the preview.

Tampa Bay vs. Texas
It’s tough to figure out these two teams. The Rays seem to have a mediocre offense with several holes and a good, but not great pitching staff, but they led the AL East nearly wire-to-wire and were never in danger of falling out of a playoff spot. At the end of May I took a look at them and noted that their defense was performing at an exceptional, probably unsustainable level and their offense was showing an incredible prowess at hitting in high-leverage situations:

But with runners in scoring position, the Rays are hitting .287/.367/.451 for an OPS of .819—a huge increase over their .744 overall OPS. With men on any base they have an .809 OPS. In high leverage situations they have a .798 OPS. It’s not uncommon for an individual player to hit better than average in clutch situations over one or even a few seasons. David Ortiz did it from 2003-2007, for one. But for an entire team to do so is basically impossible.

Let’s take a look at those numbers now:
Overall OPS: .736
RISP: .790
Men on: .783
High Leverage: .794

What the heck! These numbers didn’t regress to the mean at all. Players across the league do hit slightly better with runners on than with the bases empty, but not to this extent. And there’s essentially no difference between high, medium, or low leverage hitting across the league. So how did the Rays do it for a whole year?

Well, the answer now is still the same as it was in May: they got lucky. They had a great year hitting in big situations, and that allowed a mediocre offense to score about 50 more runs than they “should” have if their hits had been spread out normally (according to Baseball Prospectus’ UEQR numbers). And again, the projection for the future is the same: their great luck may or may not continue, but digging down statistically, this is a mediocre offense. They finished sixth in the league in OBP and eighth in slugging percentage (just where they were in May) and yet managed to be third in runs. Everyone chalks this up to their aggressive baserunning, which is part of it, but the main reason is their situational hitting. Since I can’t predict what luck they’ll have, we’ll say that the Rangers have a significant advantage in offense over Tampa.

The Rangers offense, while better than Tampa’s, has its own questions. They got poor production from several offensive positions, and the Ballpark at Arlington is an extreme hitters’ park, so they have questions about hitting on the road. Rangers catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and center-fielders all hit for below a .700 OPS this year, which is pretty lousy. While the main culprit at first base, Justin Smoak, went to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade, his replacement, Mitch Moreland, is a rookie with under 200 plate appearances in his career. Even among the bright spots there are questions: Josh Hamilton is recovering from a broken rib, Vlad Guerrero had just a .748 OPS in the second half, and Nelson Cruz had a huge home/road split (1.099 OPS at home, .805 on the road).

On the pitching side, both teams once again have plenty of talent but plenty of questions. Both teams have a strong ace with previous postseason success, but Cliff Lee took game one, and even before then had a stronger postseason record. David Price surpassed his previous year’s innings total by nearly 50, so maybe a poor performance could have been expected. Beyond game one, the Rays have more experience, but C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis have had very strong years while Shields and Garza have struggled somewhat. Still I can’t much separate the teams beyond their number one starters—which speaks to the struggles of Shields, as coming into the season the Rays would have had a clear edge.

Both bullpens are very strong. Both have a dominant closer, though Neftali Feliz is probably slightly more dominant than Rafael Soriano. But that’s like saying Black Sabbath rocks slightly more than Iron Maiden (though of course, reasonable minds may differ). Both have a setup guy with a minuscule ERA who kind of came out of nowhere (Joaquin Benoit and Alexi Ogando), and the remainder of each bullpen is strong. While relief pitching is of course volatile, none of the key relievers for either team seem to be getting by on smoke and mirrors: the Rangers have five of the top 28 AL relievers in FIP (which corrects for defensive performance and stranded runners) this season (minimum 30 IP), while the Rays aren’t quite as deep but have three of the top ten.

Both teams are very well matched, but the Rangers have the best starting pitcher and, in a short series, he can pitch two of the five games. Were Cliff Lee more mortal, I’d say the Rays win in five, but I think the Rangers will take this one. Texas in five.

Preseason Playoff Picks 2010

There’s No “I” in Blog recently turned one year old, so we’ve decided to celebrate our birthday by doing what we did for our very first post: clumsily scrawling our NFL preseason playoff picks for all to (attempt to) read. Football season is almost here! Hooray!

We all like the Colts, Patriots, and Packers to win their divisions. Alex thinks the Saints will fall off a bit and go something around 9-7, while Ian and Patrick have them winning the NFC South. The other divisions are pretty much up for grabs, either because they’re pretty good (NFC East, AFC North) or because they’re terrible (both AFC and NFC West). Ian believes Mike Singletary and his floor-bound pants will lead the 49ers to the playoffs, Alex thinks Golden Tate’s love for maple bars is reason enough to pick the Seahawks, and Patrick picked the Rams because why not? The NFC West sucks so horribly.

None of us think Rex Ryan’s F-bombs will lead the Jets to the playoffs, but we all picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl. Even though making these picks might make us all be totally wrong and look like idiots, the Packers pick gives me an excuse to link to this awesome Brent Favruh shirt.

NFL Playoff Picks: End-of-Season Update (Plus Totally Random Super Bowl Picks)

The holidays have come and gone, and so has 2009. That means your friends here at There’s No “I” in Blog are back from vacation and ready commence a new year of sports coverage. The NFL regular season is also over, which means it’s once again time to check up on our preseason picks and see just how wrong we were. (Here’s a link to our mid-season update.)

Patrick: In my opinion, the NFC East is the most entertaining division in the NFL, with the AFC East a close second, because the other divisions were wrapped up a long while ago. Sure, Denver made the AFC West interesting for a while, but then they remembered they’re the Broncos. Even though they finally got rid of him, I still say the Broncos are suffering the karmic consequences of replacing Jake “the Snake” Plummer with Jay Cutler. The East divisions were interesting though, with the Eagles and Cowboys going at each other in the final week. The Dolphins and Jets, as well as what Patriots fans might consider a down year, gave the AFC East a little intrigue as well. Also, I picked the Steelers to win the South, but I am more than happy to see the Bengals in the playoffs instead. As I said before, Ochocinco is always entertaining. I’m sure he’s looking forward to his rematch with Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis as much as I am. He told Bob Costas he’d change his name back to Johnson if Revis shut him down, which Revis did.

I haven’t yet mentioned that I picked the Giants to win the East. Ouch. Talk about a pitiful a team. I’ll go with older brother Manning to make the Super Bowl this year. That leads me to my…

Totally random Super Bowl pick: Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints lost to Tampa Bay. That’s a problem. I also refuse to pick Brett Favruh and the Vikings, so that leaves me with the Iggles. The Colts pull this out behind Manning, who throws for a billion yards and a hundred touchdowns in the Super Bowl.

Alex: As far as the AFC goes, hey, if you don’t go out on a limb, you never get the apple. Oakland was mostly terrible, but they probably ruined more survivor pools than any other team with victories over Philly and Pittsburgh. Houston was in it until the end of the last day, so I can’t be faulted for missing there. In the NFC, Atlanta looked frisky often, but just not quite often enough to make the playoffs. I have no regrets in backing my boy Matty Ice, who I think will become a top five QB next season. Arizona got past the Super Bowl loser hangover (better than the no-longer-defending champ Steelers at least) and kept out the most feared QB-TE combination since Bledsoe-Coates in the 49ers Alex Smith and Vernon Davis (well, maybe not.)

Super Bowl Pick: San Diego finally gets there, only to be taken apart by my original preseason pick of the Packers of Green Bay. In the end, they will defeat the Chargers by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a giant H. It will be a most ripping victory. (Anyone who got that reference can grill at my BBQ any time.)

Ian: I did alright for an off-the-cuff prediction. In both leagues I correctly guessed four of the six playoff teams, and could have been better than that with a bit of luck. In the AFC, Pittsburgh just missed the playoffs, and could have made it if the Jets weren’t given two free victories at the end of the year. Tennessee started out awful, but were playing pretty well after putting Vince Young in as starting QB—maybe if they had done that sooner they could have fulfilled my prediction.

As for the AFC playoff teams I didn’t get right, I basically only switched Baltimore and Indianapolis, but I think those two teams’ real quality was much closer than their records show. Of Baltimore’s seven losses, five were by six points or fewer, while Indianapolis had seven of their 14 wins come by six points or fewer. Of course, the record is what counts, but I think Baltimore is probably a game or two better than their record, while Indy is a game or two worse.

Did anyone see the Saints coming? I’d like to see someone who predicted their defense would be that solid. Besides that, I’ll admit that I picked against Brett Farve and the Vikings even though if I had been objective, I probably would have given them a playoff spot. And, if you can tell me where the Giants defense went, you get a cookie.

For the Super Bowl, I have to go with San Diego and Dallas. The Dallas D looks great and I don’t see Farve playing mistake-free for a whole playoff. New Orleans…has no defense. Green Bay looks strong, but without the home games I don’t think they can go too far. San Diego wins a great game.

NFL Playoff Picks: Mid-Season Update

The NFL season has reached its halfway point, which means No “I” in Blog is digging up our preseason playoff picks (that scribbly thing to the left there) to see how we’re doing.


Alex: Okay, I know what you’re thinking: How in the name of David Bowie did you think the Oakland Raiders were going to make the playoffs this year? Basically, my reasoning was this: 1) there always seems to be that one team that not even their own fans believe in that catches fire and makes the playoffs. Last year it was Miami. I saw potential in JaMarcus Russell and had invested a fourth round fantasy pick (like many others) in Darren McFadden. Like George Dubya said after 9/11 — Nev-uh Ah-gan. Besides, it’s partially not my fault. I only thought Tom Cable had punched one of his assistants, but it turns out he may have hit a number of former girlfriends/wives as well. If only he could channel that aggressiveness to his defense, instead of, you know, women.

Beyond that, I feel all right. Denver is gonna take out San Diego, but none of us saw that coming. I still believe in the Texans, especially since we KNOW Tennessee and Jacksonville aren’t going anywhere in that division, and I still think San Francisco isn’t out of it because if the rest of the NFL is the Big Ten, then the NFC West is the Sun Belt conference. Anything could happen. Beyond that, it would appear that instead of betting on the Vikings to go 8-8, I get the joy of betting against Brett Favre in the playoffs. Fine by me, even if he’s just a gunslinger that’s having fun out there like a kid in the yard blah blah blah. Hang me by my Wranglers (sounds like a country song).

Patrick: How did I pick Jacksonville to make the playoffs, even as a wildcard? Maybe I saw Maurice Jones-Drew and thought their offense would be awesome, but I forgot their QB is David Garrard and their receivers are a bunch of scrubs and the aging Torry Holt. Oh, and they don’t know how to play defense. I didn’t see Cincinnati becoming as good as they are, but no one did. If they win their next two games against division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh, they’ll essentially wrap up their division. I’m all for it, even if it means my picks were wrong, because that will mean a few more Ocho Cinco TD celebrations and maybe even an opportunity for Dhani Jones to tackle the globe in a bow-tie.

I’m pretty sure my Indy and New Orleans picks are pretty safe, but really, I would never have guessed the Saints would be this good. When a team is so deep at WR and RB that Reggie Bush is basically a wasted roster spot, you know they’re going to be pretty hard to stop. Even though the Vikings are going to win the NFC North (because Old Man Favre has Adrian Peterson and a fantastic offensive line to keep him from throwing stupid interceptions), I’ll say this: Aaron Rodgers looked like the better QB in both Vikings/Packers matchups, and that’s not just because Rodgers didn’t cry.

Ian: I’m still going to be 100% accurate in my predictions.

Tennessee is going to run the table and finish 10-6 — this team’s performance last year wasn’t an illusion. Denver is a piece of shit team masquerading as a 6-1 team, and Josh McDaniels’s mad fist-pumping after the New England win jinxed his team like Joba’s fist pump after striking out Kenji Johjima in the third inning on August 16 did. In the most surprising development, the mobsters holding Jake Delhomme’s wife hostage are going to be taken out by Brett Favre in an FBI operation (yeah, Favre does that on days off. Oh, you didn’t know?), and Jake will play lights-out for the rest of the season and lead Carolina to the division title. During this raid, Favre will break his hand, and Brad Childress will refuse to sit him down, which wouldn’t torpedo the Vikings’ season except for causing him to fumble on every other handoff to Adrian Peterson.

Oh, and Ocho Cinco will get suspended by Roger Goodell for Tweeting in the end zone after scoring a touchdown, and the Bengals will falter.

I should have bet money on my predictions!

Preseason Playoff Picks

Football season is about to kick off, which means a lot of people are about to become completely unproductive on Sundays. Fans in every city will be painting their faces, wearing crazy-ass costumes, and clogging their arteries both at home and in stadium parking lots. The Detroit Lions even get to take paper bags off their heads for at least a few games.

In preparation for the season, we’ve made our preseason playoff picks. Overall, our picks are pretty much to be expected. Even with our slight variations of opinion, we all picked the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Giants, and Packers to make the playoffs. Only Ian picked the Panthers, and Alex went out on a limb to pick the Texans and Raiders to win the AFC wildcard spots. (Alex’s pick of the Raiders was based solely on the proven feistiness of Tom Cable.) I picked Baltimore just over the Titans, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the AFC South put three teams in the playoffs. The best part about the NFL is that these predictions will probably, and hopefully, be blown apart, making us look stupid. No one expected the Cardinals to make the Super Bowl last year or for the Dolphins to go 11-5, and that’s what makes watching the season so fun.

Stay tuned for our college football bowl predictions.