Projecting the Red Sox
Yeah, I was thinking about the Red Sox and Carl Crawford. The contracts may be a slight overpay, but Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez add so much to the Red Sox that it’s tough not to get very excited about their chances this year. Adrian Gonzalez is a premier hitter with great opposite-field power, and he’s going to play with the Green Monster 310 feet away from him. Crawford may not have home run power, but he can lace hits to the gaps and his speed can turn them into doubles and triples. And even though the Monster offsets the value of his defense somewhat, he is consistently worth 10-15 runs per season in the field, which goes a long way toward making him worth his contract.
I’m quite excited about the possibilities for this team. Since I couldn’t think about anything other than baseball all day, I decided to run some back-of-the-envelope projections for the team. The pitching staff is still somewhat in flux, though I expect them to pick up a reliever or two (Scott Downs is looking likely now that they are already losing their first round pick). It has the talent to be better than average, but given the new pitching coach and thus far no major bullpen upgrades, let’s project it as league average. Last year this was around 716 runs per team. The Red Sox were slightly below average at 744 runs allowed. So for ease in calculation, since we’re estimating and I want to be conservative, let’s project them to allow 720.
Offensively, I took the Bill James projections, which are available on Fangraphs, and input them to BaseballMusings lineup run generator, which is a very neat tool. As James’s projections are known to be optimistic, I adjusted them mostly downward, except for a few cases as explained below.
Leadoff: Jacoby Ellsbury, center field.
Jacoby had a tough year last year, and many question what he’ll be able to do next year. But for now the Red Sox still have Mike Cameron, who is great against lefties and also one of the best center fielders of my lifetime when not in pain from a kidney stone. Bill James projects Ellsbury to have an OBP of .355 and a SLG of .409. Since Cameron would probably play any center field innings that Ellsbury isn’t in the lineup, I’m comfortable with these projections, but in the interest of being conservative, let’s adjust them down to .350/.400.
2nd: Dustin Pedroia, second base.
Pedroia was having a very solid year before going down with a broken foot. He had a .367 OBP and a career high .493 SLG when injured. James projects him to hit .372/.462, which seems fair, but given that he may miss ten games (likely replaced by Lowrie or Scutaro) and maybe is off his game because of the injury, we’ll drop it down to .360/.450.
3rd: Carl Crawford, left field.
Crawford is an excellent hitter, but he’s not exactly built for Fenway. There’s also question about whether his last two years (during which he increased his walk rate and slugged .473) represents his true hitting level, or if a little less power than that should be expected. James projects him at .350/.453, which seems pessimistic to me, but I’ll use it.
Cleanup: Adrian Gonzalez, first base.
Here’s where I took some liberty in adapting Bill James’s projections. James projects Adrian Gonzalez to hit for a .378/.512 line, which seems very pessimistic to me. I think it’s possible that that projection is assuming he’d remain in San Diego, in which case it makes sense to adjust it upward. Using the wisdom of crowds, the 40 fangraphs users who have voted thus far project him at a .400/.595 line, which seems maybe a bit too optimistic. But given that he’s hit about that well away from Petco Park in his last three years, and Fenway seems like a park built for him, maybe it’s not too crazy. We’ll take the middle ground, but the high end: .390/.580.
Fifth: Kevin Youkilis, third base.
Youkilis has been one of the most underrated hitters in the majors for the last few years. His fierce playing style can cause him to miss time, but on a per-at-bat basis here’s how he ranks in the majors since 2008 (minimum 1200 PA):
OBP: 5th
SLG: 3rd
wOBA: 2nd, to Pujols
It’s not hard to make the case that Youkilis is the second-best hitter in the majors, per at-bat. Not only does he have amazing patience, but he has surprising power. While Fenway has helped him a lot, he would be a solid hitter in any park and as the Red Sox #5 guy, you know this is an exceptional lineup.
James projects him for a .398/.507 line. That slugging looks low to me, but I can foresee the scenario in which Youk misses 20 or so games very easily, and those at-bats would probably be taken by Jed Lowrie. While I love Lowrie’s bat, he’s not quite at Youk’s level, especially in the plate discipline department. So let’s call this position an aggregate .385/.520.
6th: David Ortiz (and platoon partner?), designated hitter.
In the same time frame that Youkilis is the second-best hitter in baseball, Ortiz has had some well-publicized struggles. But he still has a .498 slugging percentage during that time, good for 32nd in the majors (just behind Jason Bay). His wOBA makes him 52nd in MLB during that time. This isn’t great, but it would look better if he played less often against lefties, against whom he only managed a .275 OBP and .324 SLG in 2010. This is a continuing trend, and I expect Terry Francona (and Ortiz) to realize this and sit Ortiz more often than not against LHP. Against LHP, the likely DH would be Mike Cameron, who has a career .866 OPS against lefties, or if Russell Martin or another catcher is acquired, Jason Varitek could even DH against lefties.
James projects Ortiz for a .366/.509 line, and given his likely solid platoon partners, let’s call it a .365/.505 aggregate from the DH slot this year.
7th: JD Drew, Right Field.
2011 is the last year of JD Drew’s contract, and he had a rough 2010. After adjusting to the American League and posting a .399/.521 line for an OPS of .920 from 2008-09, he could only manage .341/.452 last year (.793 OPS) and has hinted at retiring after this year. But James projects him for somewhat of a rebound year and a .370/.460 line, so we’ll go with that. Though Drew likes to miss time, his backups are likely to be Ellsbury, Ryan Kalish, or Cameron, who won’t do much worse. So we’ll go with a .360/.455 projection from right field.
8th: Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie, shortstop.
As I wrote in my offseason preview, I think Lowrie will be the starting shortstop sooner or later (I’d guess around May), while Scutaro will become a super-sub at third, second, and short. James projects Lowrie at .361/.467, and while I think he could very easily improve on that mark, let’s not get too hasty. We’ll do .360/.460.
9th: Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Jason Varitek/Russell Martin, catcher.
As I noted in my last post, just Saltalamcchia and Varitek could make for a solid catching tandem, given their complimentary platoon splits and Varitek’s experience. Given the rumors about how the Red Sox weren’t happy with Victor Martinez’s dedication to the pitching staff, I think they’ll mostly be looking for defense from this spot, but Saltalamacchia’s youth gives me hope that this can be more than an offensive black hole. James likes Salty for a .323/.422 line, and gives Varitek a .324/.386 mark. Let’s call it .325/.400.
Plugging all this into the lineup analysis tool, we get a projection of: 5.722 runs per game.
Holy crap. That works out to 927 runs for the whole season, which would be 109 more runs than last year. Is that possible? Considering that they added two all-star hitters (though, yes, one replaced an all-star) and will get three other all-stars back after missing them for half to all the year (including the man who has been the best hitter not named Pujols for the last three years), then, yes. Not to mention that the lineup model assumes the team has average speed, and the Red Sox have the two best base-stealers in the league.
Still, let’s be conservative. Say on a team level this lineup estimator is optimistic, and maybe the Red Sox have some bad luck with runners in scoring position or something. So say they only score 910 runs.
With an average number of runs allowed discussed above, that projects (via the pythagorean expectation, using 1.83 as an exponent) to a 98-64 record.
Given how conservative I was in all my estimates and the ability of the pitching staff to improve upon my projection (especially with the likely bullpen help they will add and the improved defense), I’m very excited about the 2011 Red Sox.
*Photo courtesy of Albert Yau via Creative Commons License
Theo’s Plan II: Not a Bridge Year
Welcome to my second annual Red Sox offseason preview. Guess what? I was relatively correct last time I did this, as I predicted the addition of Beltre and Cameron, touched on the decline of Papelbon, and noted that Jed Lowrie is good if healthy. Not to toot my own horn, but…I’ll toot my own horn.
So far the Sox have made three major moves, all of which I agree with. First, after John Farrell left his role as pitching coach to become Toronto’s manager, they signed Curt Young from Oakland to be the new Red Sox pitching coach. Generally, pitching coaches are overrated—they seem to get too much credit for any success stories that occur under their tutelage, and get too much blame when a pitcher experiences a decline in performance. Farrell is a good example of this, as he is credited with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz’s success after their first couple years had some rough stretches, when the fact is that they have been great pitchers since they were in high school and it seemed like only a matter of time before they adjusted to pitching in the majors*. Similarly, he was given lots of blame for the perceived underperformance of Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, when there are other reasonable explanations for each player’s decline (Lackey adjusting to a new ballpark and division, Beckett’s conditioning, and Dice-K’s injuries and stubbornness). Therefore, I wasn’t too worried when the news came that Farrell was leaving, as I expected any new coach the Red Sox management decided on to be a solid one, given the collective knowledge of the coaching staff already in place and the immense talent of the pitching staff. That said, I doubt one could find a better option to take over than Young, since he already knows and has a good relationship with Francona and has shown excellent results in his previous work in Oakland.
*I do think Farrell deserves credit for the unexpected strong performance of Hideki Okajima, since he was the one who got him to perfect and throw his “Oki-Doki.”
Second, the team picked up their option on Scott Atchison. Atchison isn’t going to be the savior of the bullpen, but for $40k more than the league minimum salary, he’s a solid cheap option at the back of the staff. If he collapses, there’s no harm in cutting him, but he should be a good bet to repeat his 2010 performance and picking up the option is a no-brainer.
Third, the team picked up David Ortiz’s 2011 option, worth $12.5 million. This move caused some derision in Red Sox world. The panel at the recent Blogapalooza I attended seemed to be mostly against it, saying that it was too much money, that full-time DHs were on their way out and that Ortiz was likely to decline further and his “April slump,” which has occurred each of the last two seasons, was a foregone conclusion and likely to increase in length next year. Also, there were insinuations that he wasn’t really 36, even though after 9/11 there have been very few cases of players faking their ages. Vlad Guerrero’s 2010 contract was brought up as something closer to what Ortiz is really worth ($6.5 million, plus a mutual option for 2011 with a $1 mil buyout—so essentially $7.5 mil). And they’re probably close to right, though Ortiz did hit for a .899 OPS (eighth in the league) while Vlad only managed a .841 after a hot start. Except for one thing—it’s David Ortiz we’re talking about. I’ll be the first one to discount the impact of chemistry, but if you can find me anyone in Boston who has said something bad about Ortiz as a person, it’ll be the first one. Paying an extra $5 mil or so to keep an icon happy isn’t necessarily a bad deal, and he’s not hurting you at the plate either.
So, where should they go from here? Like last year’s post, I’ve organized it into steps.
1. Re-sign Adrian Beltre.
Last year, I stated that signing the free agent Beltre should be the Red Sox’s top priority as he was likely to provide around an .850 OPS in Fenway, he was the best third baseman in the league defensively, and there were very few other palatable options for the position in the near future. I would have signed him to a multi-year deal then, but given his recent injury history the one-year “make good” contract he ended up signing made sense to minimize risk. Except when I (and the Red Sox) were right and Beltre had a great year offensively, he obviously turned down the player option for 2011 and became a free agent, putting the Red Sox in the position of bidding against other teams for his services.
So, we’re in a similar position to last year. Beltre is again the best third baseman on the market. His good offensive season surprised a lot of people, but could have been foreseen by an astute observer, so not much has changed there. And again, if they don’t sign Beltre, the backup plan for third base is less than ideal.
What the other options? They could acquire a first baseman and move Youkilis to third, but Youkilis is another year removed from playing third with any regularity, and if they don’t add a top first baseman they’d be looking at a serious downgrade. Jed Lowrie played incredibly well after recovering from mononucleosis, and while his injury history is mostly one bad injury (the broken bone in his wrist in 2008) and bad luck (the aforementioned mono), he would be more valuable as the team’s shortstop, where he has more experience (more on that later). Beyond that, the Sox would need to trade for a third baseman or sign a lesser free agent, and the pickings there are very slim.
Beltre is likely to command at least a three-year deal, but he’s only 31 right now, so giving him even four guaranteed years shouldn’t be a major concern. Apart from 2009, he has remained healthy, and has always hit well outside of Seattle. While a repeat of 2010 or 2004 offensively is unlikely, it’s not out of the question that he could come close, as Seattle does have the most difficult travel schedule in baseball and one of the most brutal parks for right-handers to hit in. Given the Mariners’ complete ineptitude at the plate the last few years, maybe there’s something wrong with the coaching or training staff there as well. At the least, it didn’t work for Beltre.
In 2007, the Red Sox gave Mike Lowell a three-year deal at $12.5 mil a year for the seasons when he was age 34-36. That contract didn’t work out, but it shows that the Red Sox aren’t averse to giving multiple years to 34-year-old third basemen who provide good defense and whose swing is perfect for Fenway. Beltre will be just 32 next year and is a better player than Lowell. The “Contract Crowdsourcing” feature over at Fangraphs estimates that Beltre will get a four-year, $52 million deal. Given the dearth of other options, I might start with that, but would be willing to offer a four-year deal worth $60 million and be 100% happy if he signed it.
2. Give Jed Lowrie the starting shortstop job.
Jed Lowrie will be the best shortstop in the American League this season. Lots of people may think this is a crazy statement, but it’s not. Let’s examine.
First, it’s not too difficult right now to be the best shortstop in the American league. Last year the best-hitting AL shortstop by OPS (among those who qualified for the batting title) was Alexei Ramirez of Chicago, who put up a .744 OPS. Marco Scutaro was second on this list, and he played with a hurt shoulder for much of the year. Across the league, all shortstops hit for just a .669 OPS. There are some great shortstops in the NL, and a few AL guys look to be on their way up, but right now, if you have a guy who can field well and get on base every once in a while, you should consider yourself lucky.
What did Jed Lowrie hit last year? Oh, just a .907 OPS in 197 plate appearances.
Which brings me to my second point: Jed Lowrie is a pretty good hitter. There are two big myths about Jed Lowrie that I’d like to dispel. First, that his 2010 production came out of nowhere. Second, that he is injury-prone. The two are related.
In 2008, Lowrie was a reasonably well-regarded prospect who had worked his way slowly but surely up the system. He switched from second base to shortstop, which slowed his development some, and also had an ankle injury in 2006, though he still played 97 games. In 2007 he had hit quite well at three levels, culminating in a .862 OPS at Pawtucket and a #73 ranking on Baseball America’s top prospect list. He injured his wrist in Pawtucket in May, but was able to keep playing, and when Julio Lugo got hurt he was called up to the Red Sox and more or less played every day for the rest of the season. The wrist continued to bother him more and more, but since he was the Red Sox’s best option at short beyond Alex Cora, he stayed on the field and helped the Red Sox reach the playoffs.
After the season the news came out that Lowrie had actually broken a bone in his wrist and this had severely hampered his hitting, particularly from the left side of the plate. He didn’t have surgery, but the wrist still bothered him when he began play the next year and he had to be shut down and undergo surgery, so 2009 was essentially a lost year. In spring training of 2010, hopes were high for him as he was completely recovered from the wrist injury, but he unfortunately came down with mono, and had to miss about half the year.
So that’s Lowrie’s injury history. He essentially has had just one bad injury, which he’s fully recovered from, and one disease, which he’s also shown he’s fully recovered from. Now, the case can be made that guys who get injuries from playing “balls-to-the-wall” are injury-prone, as are guys who have a lot of muscle pulls, and maybe guys who take poor care of themselves. But Lowrie is none of those things. Simiarly, players who have reputations as being “injury-prone” are often guys like J.D. Drew and (maybe) Ellsbury this year who show a tendency to not play through injuries. Everyone gets banged up during the season, but Drew often needs to take a few games off here and there after pulling a muscle, or with a sore shoulder. People argue that he should be playing through these injuries (which I disagree with) and be more like Ripken, who was (likely) banged up a lot during his streak, but was a “gamer” and stayed on the field.
Most players who played through an injury and helped their team to a playoff berth when the other options to play their (important) position were poor would get a reputation as a gamer and garner lots of deserved accolades. Somehow Jed Lowrie has gained a reputation for being injury-prone, even though if he had told Francona in 2008, “Sorry, Tito, my wrist hurts too much, I gotta sit” he would have likely healed faster/better and had a more normal career path.
I’m confused about this perception. Lowrie should remain healthy, and while he is probably not going to put up a .900 OPS for a whole season, he seemed to only get stronger as the season went on and he was essentially playing every day by September. While he wasn’t rated a top prospect by the magazines, neither were Kevin Youkilis or Dustin Pedroia, or for that matter Jon Lester, and they produced well at the major league level. I have a theory that the Red Sox focus less on the results of their prospects and more on the process—that is, they have their prospects work on certain things in the minors (Lowrie and Pedroia’s defense, Lester’s secondary pitches) and promote them based on their progress and reports from coaches rather than just on numbers. That might cause someone creating a prospect list to underrate them since they don’t know that the player is focusing on particular aspects of his game. Either that, or the Red Sox like to draft late bloomers.
3. Let Victor Martinez go elsewhere.
Victor Martinez is a solid catcher. He’s an excellent hitter and seems to be serviceable defensively. He’s not great at throwing runners out but does an OK job, and similarly, he’s not great at blocking balls in the dirt but isn’t a major liability back there. Whether or not he’s a good pitch-caller is tougher to figure out, as C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee did pretty well in Cleveland with him, as did Lester and Buchholz this year, but Lackey, Beckett, and Dice-K underperformed.
Anyway, it would be great to have Victor Martinez on the Red Sox in 2011 and 2012. But by 2013, he’s not likely to be able to catch very often, and even if he can, his defense is likely to have deteriorated further. And his bat is great for a catcher, but isn’t exceptional, and is unimpressive for a first baseman or DH. Given that he’s likely to receive at least a three-year deal and is a type A free agent, it would be a wise move to let him sign elsewhere, save the $10 million he’s likely to make, take the two draft picks, and not risk paying him through a likely decline.
The best argument for re-signing Martinez is that they don’t have a good replacement in-house. There options at catcher are Jason Varitek, who had a strong start in 2010 before missing most of the year with a broken foot or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has shown great offensive potential, but struggled to stick in the majors, first in Atlanta and then in Texas. Beyond those guys, they’d have to sign a free agent or promote a prospect, and while they have some strong catching prospects in their system, none of them seem to be MLB-ready yet.
Fortunately for the Sox, the MLB catchers they currently have have complimentary platoon splits. Varitek is still a solid hitter against lefties, as he posted a .868 OPS last year, an .807 OPS in 2009, and an .863 OPS against lefties in 2008—all years in which he struggled against righties. Saltalamacchia has a career .765 OPS against righties, which isn’t great, but if the two can combine for an OPS in the high .700s, that would make catching a strong point offensively, as just six catchers with over 100 PAs hit for an .800 OPS last year.
Outside the organization, there are some options, but none seem to be a perfect fit. John Buck would be a good stopgap signing, as the free agent put up a .487 slugging percentage over the last two years and as a type B free agent wouldn’t require the Sox to relinquish any draft picks. The problem with signing Buck is that he’d likely want the starting job, which he deserves, but which could stunt the development of Saltalamacchia and probably force the Sox to cut ties with Varitek, since it’s unlikely they’d carry three catchers when two of them can’t play another position (though I wish that were an option teams would explore more seriously instead of having 12 pitchers).
Through trade, the Red Sox have eyed some targets in the past, such as the Rockies’ Chris Iannetta or the Diamondbacks’ Miguel Montero, but neither of those appear to be a good fit now, as their respective teams have showed a renewed enthusiasm for them. At this point, it seems that either trade would require a top Red Sox prospect, and I don’t see that happening.
It probably makes the most sense to let Martinez sign elsewhere, stand pat with Saltalamacchia and Varitek, sign some AAAA guy as an emergency backup, and hope for the best. While this isn’t the sexiest choice (though NESN reporter Heidi Watney, who was rumored to have dated Tek, may disagree), it would likely give the team solid production, keep them from being locked in a long contract, and allow them to spend money elsewhere. Keeping Varitek around would not only keep a Red Sox legend happy, but if the Captain’s famous “computer brain” is what it’s cracked up to be, the pitching staff and Saltalamacchia’s development should be aided.
4. Bolster the bullpen.
While the injuries to the team did far more damage to the 2010 Red Sox, it certainly seemed like the bullpen was a bigger problem. Going into the season, they looked relatively solid. Jonathan Papelbon had shown some weaknesses in 2009 and had blown a save in their final game of the year (as I noted), but he was a top closer and was expected to rebound. Daniel Bard had had a sensational rookie season and looked to build upon that as the team’s set-up man. Beyond that, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez had always been solid, and they had the mercurial but talented Manny Delcarmen. They also added some lottery tickets in Dustin Richardson, Scott Atchison, Scott Schoenweis, and Boof Bonser, and as always had Tim Wakefield ready to fill a role in the pen or the rotation as necessary.
As with their injury problems, nearly everything that could go wrong did. Papelbon pitched about the same as he had in 2009, but his meltdowns seemed to come in tie or one-run games instead of ones in which he had more wiggle room. Hideki Okajima imploded, putting up a 6.00 ERA in the first half, and beyond Dan Bard, no one picked up the slack, and both Ramirez and Delcarmen were jettisoned to the National League, a.k.a. “Where Red Sox flameouts go to thrive.” Okajima improved in the second half, but Bard was less dominant, likely due to being somewhat overworked as the Sox’ only reliable 7th-8th inning option.
All in all, the Red Sox bullpen pitched 445 innings with a 4.24 ERA and was charged with 23 losses. Their 4.59 RA was 11th in the AL, and while blown saves aren’t the best measure of effectiveness, they were second only to Baltimore in this category. Beyond Bard, there wasn’t much good news there.
Where should they go from here? Well, Bard will be back and should anchor the pen. Papelbon is going to earn a lot of money in his final year of arbitration, so a trade is unlikely, and while he’s not likely to be worth the money he’ll make, he should be a solid pitcher. While his ERA jumped from 1.85 to 3.90, Papelbon’s peripherals remained consistent and he can be confidently projected for around a 3.00 ERA—not top-of-the-line stuff, but given that the closer often doesn’t pitch in the highest leverage situations, it can be advantageous for a team to have its set-up relievers be better than its closer while the closer pitches the 9th with a three-run lead (a lead that nearly any major league pitcher should be able to protect most of the time). Scott Atchison’s option has been picked up, and he’ll be a cheap arm for the 6th or 7th option in the pen. As noted, Hideki Okajima pitched well down the stretch and was re-signed for $2.75 mil. One would think that given his struggles last year, he won’t be given as many opportunities to lose games if he can’t regain his form. In the minors, they have a couple AAAA guys with promise in Fernando Cabrera and Robert Manuel, but neither have impressed in the cups of coffee they’ve been given thus far. They also have some starting pitching prospects who pitched out of the bullpen last year in Felix Doubrount and Michael Bowden, but the team hasn’t given up on them being starters, so they’re only likely to see the Fenway pen in an emergency. That’s all. So here’s where we stand:
Closer: Papelbon
Set-up: Bard
LHP: Okajima
RHP: Atchison
Other options: Wakefield, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubrount.
It’s not a bad start, but they could use some help. Fortunately, there are a lot of relievers on the free agent market. Normally, signing free agent relievers is a poor move, as they are very unpredictable and it’s often possible to get good relievers for free or cheap, rather than giving them guaranteed contracts. And signing type A free agents is almost always a bad idea; it’s not worth guaranteeing a bunch of money to a reliever as well as giving up a draft pick. For a team like this year’s Red Sox, who are strong all across the diamond and have some money to spend, adding a few free agent relievers could be the right choice to solidify the bullpen. Here’s who I’d target:
- Joaquin Benoit. Benoit has battled injuries during his career, but when healthy has always had great stuff. He was one of the best relievers in the league last year for Tampa Bay. He put up a 1.34 ERA and had a fantastic 75/11 K/BB ratio in 60 IP. He allowed six HR, but did almost everything else right and is a great target. Best of all, he wouldn’t require giving up a draft pick. He may be looking for closer money, but given his injury history he may not get more than a two-year offer, and if that’s what it takes then the Sox should pounce.
- J.J. Putz. Putz, like Benoit, has a significant injury history, but was healthy last year. Here’s a good breakdown of the pros and cons of Putz. Since he was once a closer, he may be more likely to get an offer from somewhere to be a closer, so this seems a less likely option than Benoit.
Others to consider: Jon Rauch, Koji Uehara, and Brian Fuentes.
Ideally the Red Sox would sign two of these guys, giving them a strong bullpen and allowing any “lottery tickets” they pick up to avoid being forced into action.
5. Don’t trade for Adrian Gonzalez.
I’m sure you’ve read myriad rumors about Adrian Gonzalez being on the market and how attractive he is for the Red Sox. I don’t see it happening for two main reasons.
First, it doesn’t make sense for the Padres. San Diego came within one game of the playoffs last year, and most of their pieces are returning. They saw the team who beat them out win the World Series. Now, no one expected them to be so competitive last year, but I don’t think anyone had the Giants winning the series either. Essentially, the division is up for grabs and the Padres have as good a chance as anyone at taking it. Now, I know San Diego is not very likely to re-sign Gonzalez, but if they hold onto him for the upcoming season, they have a good chance at the playoffs, and even if they let him go they will get two draft picks for him. If they don’t like their chances at the trading deadline, they can trade him then—look at the haul the Rangers got for Mark Teixiera in a very similar situation (Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, if you forgot). And given that he is from the area, they must have some hope of re-signing him, even though they’re not likely to be able to afford such a commitment. So I see the Padres holding onto Gonzalez until at least the trading deadline, and even then not letting him go for cheap.
Second, it doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox, at least not right now. Yes, he would hit well in Fenway and is a good long-term fit for the team. But for 2010, they still have David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, and Saltalamacchia can also fill in at first. Yes, Youkilis could move to third, but his defense there isn’t as good as at first and it’s only going to get worse as he gets older. Plus, Adrian Beltre is a much better fit at third, or even Jed Lowrie. Finally, since Gonzalez is going to be a free agent after this season, it makes just as much sense to wait and then just give up a draft pick to sign him instead of having to give up top prospects like Casey Kelly or even a major league player like Jacoby Ellsbury. While they’d have a period of time to negotiate with Gonzalez exclusively, they’re not likely to get a significant discount over simply signing him as a free agent.
Also, I think Kevin Youkilis is underappreciated by the fans who are clamoring to add Gonzalez. Youkilis’s hard-nosed style has caused some injuries (though his thumb injury last year seems like a freak thing), but when healthy he has been neck-and-neck with Mark Teixeira as the best all-around first baseman in the league. He can play defense, hit for average, and while we all know he’s patient, he has underrated power, hitting for a .560 slugging percentage the last three years combined. (For reference, Jason Bay, the “big bat” the Sox were missing last year, has never had a slugging percentage that high in a single season.)
If the Sox want A-Gon, they have a great shot at him in the 2011 offseason, and by then they won’t have David Ortiz under contract. But for 2010, there’s no space for Gonzalez without passing on a better option.
6. Otherwise: Stand Pat.
It’s not a stretch to say that the Red Sox lost ten wins to injuries last year. Pedroia and Youkilis missed half the season and are conservatively worth about 4-5 wins above replacement per year. Jacoby Ellsbury missed almost the entire year and could be conservatively projected to be worth around three wins. Adding in the time missed by Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez brings the total above ten wins and that’s before accounting for Mike Cameron and the pitchers who missed time. Given that the team won 89 games with all its injuries, it seems like bringing most of the same team back would give them a great shot at 95-100 wins and the playoffs, given a normal amount of injuries.
Beyond Beltre and Martinez, shortstop, and the bullpen, which they have to make decisions on, Theo should stand pat and let his team play. Players like Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford are attractive, but are likely to receive huge contracts and the Red Sox have solid, if not great, in-house options in Ellsbury, Cameron, and 2010’s surprising rookie Ryan Kalish. Cliff Lee would be nice to have (and to keep away from the Yankees) but would again require a huge salary commitment, and in this case would require the trade of a starter. Simply re-signing Beltre, giving Lowrie the shortstop job, adding pieces to the bullpen and bolstering the depth should make the 2011 Red Sox once again a good bet for 95-100 wins and a playoff berth.
**Photo courtesy of Chuck Welch via Creative Commons License
World Series Preview
Welcome to my World Series preview. Since the Red Sox missed the playoffs for the first time in a few years I’ve had the chance to watch the playoffs as a slightly dispassionate fan; that is, I didn’t have a horse in the race. While I was rooting against the Yankees, I am far from a Rangers fan, and while Tim Lincecum is one of my favorite non-Red Sox players, and the Giants have a place in my heart, it’s tough to get excited about a team relying on Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell as their best hitters. So let’s get into the meat here.
I already covered the Rangers in my previous post, but something I’d like to point out is that their bullpen, which is being referred to as a weakness given its collapse in game one against NY, has actually been a strength so far. Going forward, it should be expected to perform even better in the World Series than it has previously in the playoffs. Here’s the postseason numbers:
v. TBR: 13 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 16 H, 5 BB, 15 K
v. NYY: 16 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 12 BB, 15 K
Total postseason: 3.64 ERA, 7.89 H/9, 5.16 BB/9, 9.1 K/9.
Hey, that’s pretty good. But it’s not as good as the regular season performance from the top of the pen (Feliz, Oliver, O’Day, and Ogando all had ERAs of 2.73 or lower, with good peripherals to support them). And it’s even better when you consider that four of those runs came from Darren Oliver, who is likely to fall out of favor as he’s not looked good, and three more of the runs came during Game 1 against New York, a game that was grossly mismanaged by Ron Washington.
What else do the Rangers have? Well, Josh Hamilton looks like he’s relatively healthy, which is a boon for Texas. The rest of the team is hitting too, with the notable exception of Vlad Guererro. And they have Cliff Lee, which makes up for their disadvantage at the back end of the rotation (Tommy Hunter having turned in an awful performance in Game 4). They made some glaring defensive mistakes against New York, but during the regular season were fifth in defensive efficiency, so I would expect their defense to be solid overall.
As for the Giants, they don’t have nearly the amount of offensive firepower that the Rangers have. Cody Ross is absolutely on fire, but no one else on the team had better than a .760 OPS in the Phillies series, and they only pushed across 19 runs in the six games. When you remove the Joe Blanton-started game, it’s even worse—just 13 runs in five games, or 2.6 per game. That won’t cut it against the Rangers, and while Lincecum and Cain are very good, the Rangers aren’t as lefty-heavy as the Phillies and it’s unlikely they’ll be stifled by Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner.
Nor is their bullpen particularly impressive. Brian Wilson is excellent, but Ramon Ramirez may have lost whatever was carrying him down the stretch, and while Javier Lopez pitched well, it’s tough to rely on him. Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla are good, but the bullpen isn’t quite a strength for San Francisco.
But the Giants have one of the best pitching rotations in the league. Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez are all capable of having no-hit stuff every night, and are very reliable. Madison Bumgarner is the best #4 starter in these playoffs, and I was surprised he was removed so quickly in his Game 4 start.
What I think this series will come down to are the two games that Cliff Lee starts. If the Giants can win one of them, whether by a fluke or by Lincecum pitching even better than Lee, then they are the favorite to win the series. But if Lee continues his seeming untouchability, it’s tough to pick against the Rangers, given their offensive and bullpen superiority. Since Lee hasn’t really shown anything in his postseason career that suggests he is vulnerable, I have to pick Texas in this one.
Rangers in 6, as Lee outduels Lincecum twice and then wins Game 6 in extra innings as their bullpen outperforms the Giants’.
ALDS Preview: Tampa Bay vs. Texas
It’s the most wonderful time of the year…
No, seriously. October is my favorite month. The weather is just to my liking, there’s Octoberfest beer in the taps, the NFL and European soccer seasons are in full swing, and the NHL and NBA seasons are about to begin. And most importantly, it’s time for the MLB playoffs.
This year is a little bittersweet, as of course the Olde Towne Teame, the Red Sox, didn’t qualify for the postseason, due to some trickery or another. But even though my team didn’t make it, my second-favorite team—whoever’s playing the Yankees—is still alive. And playoff baseball is great no matter who’s playing. Let’s get on to the preview.
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
It’s tough to figure out these two teams. The Rays seem to have a mediocre offense with several holes and a good, but not great pitching staff, but they led the AL East nearly wire-to-wire and were never in danger of falling out of a playoff spot. At the end of May I took a look at them and noted that their defense was performing at an exceptional, probably unsustainable level and their offense was showing an incredible prowess at hitting in high-leverage situations:
But with runners in scoring position, the Rays are hitting .287/.367/.451 for an OPS of .819—a huge increase over their .744 overall OPS. With men on any base they have an .809 OPS. In high leverage situations they have a .798 OPS. It’s not uncommon for an individual player to hit better than average in clutch situations over one or even a few seasons. David Ortiz did it from 2003-2007, for one. But for an entire team to do so is basically impossible.
Let’s take a look at those numbers now:
Overall OPS: .736
RISP: .790
Men on: .783
High Leverage: .794
What the heck! These numbers didn’t regress to the mean at all. Players across the league do hit slightly better with runners on than with the bases empty, but not to this extent. And there’s essentially no difference between high, medium, or low leverage hitting across the league. So how did the Rays do it for a whole year?
Well, the answer now is still the same as it was in May: they got lucky. They had a great year hitting in big situations, and that allowed a mediocre offense to score about 50 more runs than they “should” have if their hits had been spread out normally (according to Baseball Prospectus’ UEQR numbers). And again, the projection for the future is the same: their great luck may or may not continue, but digging down statistically, this is a mediocre offense. They finished sixth in the league in OBP and eighth in slugging percentage (just where they were in May) and yet managed to be third in runs. Everyone chalks this up to their aggressive baserunning, which is part of it, but the main reason is their situational hitting. Since I can’t predict what luck they’ll have, we’ll say that the Rangers have a significant advantage in offense over Tampa.
The Rangers offense, while better than Tampa’s, has its own questions. They got poor production from several offensive positions, and the Ballpark at Arlington is an extreme hitters’ park, so they have questions about hitting on the road. Rangers catchers, first basemen, shortstops, and center-fielders all hit for below a .700 OPS this year, which is pretty lousy. While the main culprit at first base, Justin Smoak, went to Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade, his replacement, Mitch Moreland, is a rookie with under 200 plate appearances in his career. Even among the bright spots there are questions: Josh Hamilton is recovering from a broken rib, Vlad Guerrero had just a .748 OPS in the second half, and Nelson Cruz had a huge home/road split (1.099 OPS at home, .805 on the road).
On the pitching side, both teams once again have plenty of talent but plenty of questions. Both teams have a strong ace with previous postseason success, but Cliff Lee took game one, and even before then had a stronger postseason record. David Price surpassed his previous year’s innings total by nearly 50, so maybe a poor performance could have been expected. Beyond game one, the Rays have more experience, but C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis have had very strong years while Shields and Garza have struggled somewhat. Still I can’t much separate the teams beyond their number one starters—which speaks to the struggles of Shields, as coming into the season the Rays would have had a clear edge.
Both bullpens are very strong. Both have a dominant closer, though Neftali Feliz is probably slightly more dominant than Rafael Soriano. But that’s like saying Black Sabbath rocks slightly more than Iron Maiden (though of course, reasonable minds may differ). Both have a setup guy with a minuscule ERA who kind of came out of nowhere (Joaquin Benoit and Alexi Ogando), and the remainder of each bullpen is strong. While relief pitching is of course volatile, none of the key relievers for either team seem to be getting by on smoke and mirrors: the Rangers have five of the top 28 AL relievers in FIP (which corrects for defensive performance and stranded runners) this season (minimum 30 IP), while the Rays aren’t quite as deep but have three of the top ten.
Both teams are very well matched, but the Rangers have the best starting pitcher and, in a short series, he can pitch two of the five games. Were Cliff Lee more mortal, I’d say the Rays win in five, but I think the Rangers will take this one. Texas in five.
National League Playoffs
Instead of doing a formal playoff preview, I’m going to make a list of reasons I might root for each National League team. There are a few reasons for this, the biggest being that I don’t know as much about the National League as I do about the American League. Also, because I don’t have a rooting interest in the NL, these things will make the NL playoffs more entertaining to watch. Let’s begin!
San Francisco Giants
- They’ve never won a World Series since they moved from New York to San Francisco.
- AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful stadiums around, and the more games shown there on national television the better.
- Tim Lincecum is all kinds of awesome. He’s even entertaining in a Snuggie.
- Pablo Sandoval is fat, jolly, and a really good baseball player. He likes cake. His nickname is Kung Fu Panda. So many reasons!
- Buster Posey isn’t just an incredibly talented rookie catcher, but he also has one of the best names in baseball.
- Brian Wilson (according to his shirt in this clip) is “RAD.”
- The Giants have one of the best uniforms in baseball.
- When they wear jerseys with the Spanish version of their team name, they actually translate the word to “Gigantes” instead of just slapping a “Los” in front of Giants.
Atlanta Braves
- Jason Heyward, y’alls.
- I wouldn’t mind seeing a rematch of the 1996 Braves/Yankees World Series, as long as the Braves win this time.
Philadelphia Phillies
- If you don’t like watching Roy Halladay pitch, either you’re not a baseball fan or he’s pitching against your team.
- Chase Utley is like the National League’s Dustin Pedroia, only with more hair and less moxie.
- Shane Victorino has some awesome nicknames: “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” and “Pineapple Express.”
- If the Phillies win the World Series, someone very close to me gets another World Series ring.
Cincinnati Reds
- The possibility of Arthur Rhodes’s earrings starting a baseball brawl is always fun.
- Bronson Arroyo and his guitar.
- Aroldis Chapman throws faster than Ricky Vaughn.
- I’m not gonna lie. It’s difficult to find any reason to root for the Reds.
Starter: Carlos Delgado
Why is he a starter? Besides being one of the top hitters of all time, “Del-got-it” is a peace activist and has stood up for what he believes. He protested the use of the island of Vieques as a bombing target by the U.S. Army, and opposed the occupation of Iraq. He stayed in the dugout during the singing of “God Bless America” to protest the latter—and of course was booed when the Blue Jays visited New York*. While this is noteworthy in and of itself, the most interesting fact is that Delgado wasn’t particularly outspoken about why he wasn’t standing—his own teammates didn’t even know he was protesting until he gave an interview about it. While this may not be the best way to gain publicity for one’s cause, it shows that his beliefs were really genuine and there was nothing self-serving about his protest, as is so often the case. In a world of entertainers who take any excuse to gain publicity, it’s refreshing to see someone so subtle.
*It’s worth noting that the singing of “God Bless America” during the 7th inning of every game in Yankee Stadium is one of the more ostentatious displays of “patriotism” around. I have no problem with national anthems, but “God Bless America” isn’t one—it’s a show tune written in 1918 which didn’t become popular until 1938. As freedom of religion is one of the foundations of this country, forcing people to stand and listen to a song with religious lyrics during the 7th inning stretch, which should be reserved for “Take Me Out to the Ball Game” is something I have little patience for.
**Photo courtesy of Andrew Klein via Creative Commons License
A Few of My Favorite Things: Part 2
You can find part 1 of my favorite little things about sports (my top 10 YouTube clips) here.
Before I get going on my favorite nuances of sport, I must confess having committed an egregious sin. I somehow managed to omit these two YouTube clips from last week’s post. One is inspiring and the other is just awesome; both involve wrestling. This is wrestler Kyle Maynard’s trip to Larry King’s show, and this is, well, this is…The World of the Warrior! By the way, he now speaks at colleges.
So this started as a list of my top ten favorite small details about sport that keep me watching and loving, but I found there were way too many, so I expanded it to a Top 20. Feel free to comment or throw your own in down below. These are in no particular order.
1) British Soccer Announcers—Here’s how an American announcer might call it: “Smith…with a nice cut around the defender…takes a shot…and wide. Too bad.” Here’s how a British announcer might call it: “Smith, oh, what dashing footwork to evade his man! He sets his sights goal-ward! Brilliantly taken! Oh, just slightly askew! And his dreams must be absolutely crushed right now along with those of the home side!”
2) Embarrassing Fantasy Trades—Fantasy games are great and have become a large part of the American sports scene, but the best part is when awful, competition-skewing trades take place and the rest of the league begins to riot. For instance, I am in a keeper league right now with expiring contracts yadda yadda—all you need to know is that someone thought it was a good idea to trade Josh Hamilton for Brennan Boesch. Let’s just say friendships were hanging by a thread for a minute. Fortunately, everyone else responded with their own terribly slanted trades (I myself made a few) but in our basketball league last year, one trade led to about 21 posts and one person quitting the league altogether because he’s a baby. Anyways, always entertaining to see grown men argue about something that isn’t even real.
3) Obscure Jerseys—I’m a big fan of not only random-ass jerseys, but going to a Red Sox game and see someone wearing a Troy O’Leary shirt, or seeing a Dodgers fan in the crowd that has “Valenzuela” across his back. My current collection includes a “Bulldog” Jim Bouton Seattle Pilots jersey, a Gerald Green Celtics jersey, a Roger Dorn Cleveland Indians jersey, and a Baseball Furies jersey from the movie The Warriors. A good friend of mine has a Johnny Utah Ohio State jersey which probably trumps them all.
4) The Spladle—Those who aren’t familiar with high school or college wrestling probably don’t know what this is, but let’s say it’s just about the most emasculating and painful way to pin your opponent. It also happens to be my favorite move. Rather than describe it to you, see for yourself here. Start the video at 0:40.
5) The Rex Grossman Story—I want to be clear about something: this is not a verified fact. This may have never happened. My only source was a University of Florida sorority girl that I met at Calico Jack’s in Manhattan after a couple cocktails. So if Rexy’s reps read this, it’s merely a rumor. But, God, I want it to be true. The story goes that while playing quarterback for the Gators back at the beginning of the decade, Rex was the BMOC. He was so much so that he refused to have sex with any LESS than two girls at one time. That means if an absolute ten supposedly approached him at the bar and propositioned him by herself, he would turn her down on the grounds that there weren’t two of her. Why do I want this to be true? Because it would be proof that he’s an asshole! He was one of my least favorite college players of the past ten years and I couldn’t have been more happy when he failed as a pro QB. Fair warning Tebow fans, Florida QBs don’t translate well to the NFL. Somewhere, Danny Wuerrfel, Doug Johnson, Terry Dean, and Chris Leak are nodding sullenly. Maybe he should’ve been double-teaming the playbook and weight room instead of Lillian and Jillian.
6) Rick Krivda’s Baseball Card—Rick Krivda was a middling Orioles pitching prospect in the mid ’90s who never did a heck of a lot as a pro, but seems like a good guy. Why do I remember him? Here you go, from the man himself. Now you will remember Rick too. Def my favorite baseball card growing up.
7) Latecomers to Bench-clearing Brawls Getting Caught on TV—I love when the benches clear and people are getting pushed around and words are flying, and finally things start calming down and…oh, hey, there’s the last guy out of the bullpen, still wearing his warm-up jacket trotting in like “hey, guys, you know I had your backs the whole time right? I was just making sure no one was attacking the outfield.”
8) Antonio Cromartie’s Kids—No, this is not a foundation. “I got a few three-year-olds…uh, I got a daughter…who was born…she’s two.” Eat your heart out, Shawn Kemp.
9) Camden Yards—I grew up near Boston and Fenway Park, where they announce at the beginning of each game that you are in “America’s Most Beloved Ballpark.” Now, I love the Sox, but that’s a load of bull. It’s an uncomfortable, archaic stadium where half the grandstand seats randomly face the bleachers instead of the field. Last summer, I took a roadtrip to Camden Yards. Wow. What a great baseball atmosphere. The easy to reach location, the cheap (for a ballpark) beers, no obstructed views. They even have the best sports bar I’ve ever been to next door called Pickle’s Pub. It was such an enjoyable experience that I bought a bright orange Nick Markakis shirt. Now, if they could just figure out that whole winning thing…
10) Mike Vrabel’s Career Receiving Statistics—My favorite Patriot of the dynasty era, hard-nosed linebacker, and the most lethal, yet underused offensive player in NFL history. Nine receptions for 12 yards—NINE TOUCHDOWNS. All he did was run four steps, turn around in the end zone, and an easy toss. How did teams not figure him out?
11) Any First Year Player Draft—Where do I begin? First, my favorite experience with a draft: I got free tickets through a friend to the 2006 NBA Draft where my Boston Celtics traded cash to the Suns to pick a mediocre guard prospect from the University of Kentucky named Rajon Rondo. Strangely, this wasn’t the high point of the experience. Being in New York to witness Knicks fans get worked up as they showed a montage of Knicks futility, then have Isaiah Thomas draft Renaldo Balkman (who no one else would’ve drafted even in the 2nd round) ahead of Rondo, then hearing the fans start to riot…it was pure comedy, especially for someone who dislikes the Knicks. As far as the NFL draft, I don’t approve of the decision to move it to three nights during the week because I used to plan an entire weekend around loafing on the couch and watching the draft, but I definitely support the shortening of first round picks from 15 minutes to 10 minutes per pick. Thank God. Did we really need to wait over 15 minutes for Oakland to draft Darrius Heyward-Bey? Either way, it’s the first time each year after the Super Bowl that we start thinking about pigskin again, and that’s all right by me. Also, check out the YouTube montage of awful New York Jets picks. This is why they should never move either NBA or NFL draft out of New York.
12) Converting Girlfriends’ Fandom—Man, this is sweet. Twice in my life I’ve been able to do this. You start dating a girl who likes sports enough that they want to have a team, but they don’t have the deep rooted investment that many of us guys have born within us or have instilled in us by our fathers. So they start hearing about your favorite team and learning about them and slowly start getting into them, and before you know it, a Phillies fan is now talking about her love for Johnny Damon. So it’s cool to feel like you can have that kind of influence over someone, even if to them the team isn’t really that big of a deal. The funnier part is if after the relationship is over, the girl INSTANTLY switches back to her “old team,” rooting for them harder than ever and acting like the affair with your squad never happened, like they can’t believe they lost control of themselves in such a manner.
13) Racehorse Names—”Pocatello Percy pulls ahead of Lady With a Rash, followed by Hitler’s Oyster and the Sound and the Furry!”…Where do they come up with this shit? Here’s a description from asking Google: The Jockey Club requires all American racehorses to be registered with a ‘unique’ name, meaning no other horse can have been registered using the name within a certain length of time, and “famous horse’s names” are off-limits forever. The name has to be under a certain number of letters with several other restrictions and several names must be submitted for each horse with the jockey club making the choice. So, “common” names have already been taken, and may not be used again, meaning owners need to get creative! Keep in mind that racehorses are not called by their registered names around the barn—their trainers and grooms will use a “barn name” for that. For example, Man O’ War’s “barn name” was “Red.” Also, many people want the horse to have a meaningful name—something powerful and appropriate for what they hope will be a winner. The names of the sire and dam of the horse and other famous horses in the pedigree are also taken into consideration and may be influential in the horse’s name…Well, then. I’d love to be hired to come in and just start naming critters. What if humans had to go by these rules too? Hustlin’ Custard Strum, coming to a cradle near you.
14) Overexcited Bench Players During the NCAA Tournament—Follow me if you will back to the first weekend of any NCAA tournament. The score is Big State 68, Hickory High 51. Big State looks half bored, half who-is-winning-the-Georgetown-game? Diminutive, yet scrapy white guard with a high GPA from Hickory drains a three from the corner. Sophomores with their warm-ups still buttoned all the way jump up and down in front of the Hickory bench, high-fiving and fist pumping, shouting to the rafters. Big State 68, Hickory 54. Big State ball.
15) Hockey Ice Girls—The cheerleader of the 21st century. Get with the times, though I’m probably biased. When I went to Hofstra, the Islanders played next door at Nassau Coliseum. I got to go to a lot of games, and found that a lot of the Islanders’ Ice Girls were fellow Hofstra students, which for some reason made them seem incredibly attainable. To this date, the number of ice girls I’ve spoken to in my life is the same number of NHL goals I’ve scored.
16) “Clay”—I haven’t been disappointed by an athlete named Clay in a long time. Clay “Fire Marshal Bill” Buchholz is my favorite current Red Sox player. The Dodgers Clayton Kershaw is a fantasy favorite of mine. Clay Matthews, Jr. is a stud linebacker in the making, much like his father. I even have a Clay Kirby baseball card from the early ’70s. (Kirby holds the career record for wild pitches for the Padres. Bet ya didn’t know that.) There’s Bucs wide receiver Michael Clayton, both Mark Claytons, and the D’Backs mustachioed relief pitcher Clay Zavada. Perhaps my all-time Clay was former Lions and Patriots safety “Big Play” Willie Clay. See? I bet you didn’t know you had so many prominent Clays in your sports life. You’re welcome.
17) First Round Quarterbacks—Much more specific than just the event of the draft above. Remember, at one point these were all real debates: Drew Bledsoe or Rick Mirer? Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf? Heath Shuler or Trent Dilfer (no, not for Congress)? At one point, Donovan McNabb was grouped in with Tim Couch, Akili Smith, and Cade McNown; now I don’t think he’d share a cab with them out of fear their suckage would rub off on him. My favorite draft debate was in 2002: David Carr or Joey Harrington? I believe a pre-draft discussion between Houston GM Charlie Casserly and Lions GM Matt Millen might’ve looked something like this.
18) Not Doing the Wave—Listen, I’m there to watch the game. How can you be properly cheering if you’re busy waiting to see if the boob next to you is standing up and sitting down? This probably comes across as too cynical for this list, but I definitely get a kick out of how incensed people are that I won’t participate. It’s like I told them I left a floater in their toilet. But it’s the wave! Exactly. Sit down and watch the game, ya tomahawk choppin’ dork.
19) Adrian Beltre’s head—I don’t care who you are—his mother, his girlfriend, his priest—you DO NOT touch Adrian Beltre’s head. Doesn’t matter if he just hit a home run or struck out. Especially not you, Victor Martinez. You’re liable to get your teeth knocked in by the slugging third baseman.
20) Goalie Fights—Hockey fights are clearly great, but it would’ve been too easy to put them on here. What’s really great is when the goalie gets involved because it’s like the SWAT team just got called in, and yet it slightly resembles when people go to the carnival, put on those inflatable sumo costumes, and run into each other. Well, that is unless it’s the son of Hall of Fame goaltender Patrick Roy. Sick ‘em, boy.
Bonus! Mythical Temple Defensive Backs—I couldn’t let this one go. M. Night Shyamalan’s movie Unbreakable is about a real life superhero discovering his powers that he never had, specifically, that he cannot be physically hurt. But that wasn’t what I had a hard time going along with. The first scene of the movie shows our hero, Bruce Willis, flirting with a woman on a train travelling to Philadelphia, where the movie takes place. The woman is a pro sports agent who is representing a talented young defensive back out Temple University. Okay, you lost me. An invincible superhero is one thing, but a stud D-back out of Temple? In 2000? Come on. There have been three defensive backs IN HISTORY drafted out of Temple, the most recent of which in 1985, and he only played one season! Temple football sucks! Now, I get it, the story takes place in Philly, but couldn’t he have been a hoops prospect for the Owls, or even played football for Villanova, which I actually would’ve believed more? I saw this movie for the first time when I was 18 and the minute she said whom she represented, I muttered to myself, “Well, that would just never happen.”
Honorable mentions that got dropped because this was already too long: West Virginia LB Grant Wiley playing a bowl game with his arm broken in half, QB blocks/Kicker tackles, Gus Frerotte’s TD celebration where he gave himself a concussion, Dan Hampton’s fingers, Tony Kornheiser’s attempt at MNF, Carl Lewis’s music video (yikes), Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame induction speech, Jack Morris, Pumps, Mike Alstott, Charles Barkley, and the time Jim Everett attacked Jim Rome for calling him “Chris.”
Starter: Lou Piniella and His Man Tears
It’s been awhile since we’ve been on Man Tears watch here at There’s No “I” in Blog. There just hasn’t been too many notable Man Tears moments in sports. Well, Lou Piniella retired as manager of the Chicago Cubs this week and brought the Man Tears with him. As a Seattle Mariners fan, I’ve always been a fan of Lou. Some people find his arguing annoying and distracting (IAN!), but I’ve always thought it helped fire up his team when they needed it. And some of those Mariners teams were so bad we all wanted to be out there screaming, throwing bases, and burying home plate with him. When he left Seattle for Tampa Bay, we respected him for wanting to be with his family. Now that he’s doing the same, we can only respect his wishes to be with his sick mother. I and the game of baseball will miss him. Now, here are the Man Tears from his press conference:
Some Thoughts on Ty Cobb, Major League Baseball, and Sportswriters
First is this quote from the essay:
The rise of baseball as America’s national pastime coincided with the second industrial revolution at the turn of the twentieth century. Improvements in communication, transportation, and technology, heralded by industrialization, helped baseball become profitable. Baseball parks sprang up at railroad hubs in large urban areas, and national newspapers and magazines spread stories of sports stars to the masses…Myriad other social factors influenced baseball’s cultural prominence, including: a desire for adventure created by the settling of the frontier; the muscular Christianity movement, which advocated sport as a tool to improve mental and physical health; and a reaction to fluid gender roles.
Second is this quote:
Before the rise of the cultural studies movement in the 1970s, the examination of sports media history often was seen as a frivolous pursuit marginalized by the academy. However, if scholars fail to examine the importance of sports media history and icons such as Cobb, there is a risk of misunderstanding American culture, within which sports is inextricably linked.
I’ve always wondered why baseball seems so much more connected to American culture and history than do other sports. Obviously, I know that Jackie Robinson’s beginning with the Dodgers predates the larger Civil Rights Movement, but I assume Robinson was able to have such a profound effect because baseball had already become so entrenched in American culture. Though this isn’t a complete answer, it at least starts to lay the groundwork for one. I included the second quote because I 100% agree with the notion that writers reflect the values of their respective location (in place and time).
I’ve always wondered if baseball’s desire to be that unadulterated “Great American Pastime” has been detrimental to the league. As Ian pointed out in his latest post, MLB’s attendance and profits are soaring, so it’s not hurting them that much. But in many ways—and maybe this is an exclusively personal reaction—I see the NBA and NFL as more reflective of the current state of American culture than MLB.
This is where the writers come in, because a look at any team’s roster reveals a cross-section of contemporary American culture, but not a lot of writers are focusing on these already present story lines. Again, as Ian pointed out in his latest post, the Red Sox have Jon Lester, who is not only one of the best pitchers in baseball but also a cancer survivor. The San Francisco baseball Giants have Tim Lincecum, who is (also) not only one of the best pitchers in baseball but also half-Filipino. (Yes, as a half-Filipino person, that’s important to me). While both of them may come from fairly similar backgrounds—both are from the Seattle metro area—they undoubtedly come from different upbringings than Rockies pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez (from the Dominican Republic) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (Japan). Maybe Jimenez’s and Dice-K’s upbringings weren’t that different from Lester, Lincecum, or anyone else’s, but just the presence of these players from other countries is its own picture of American society today. I find that baseball writers and former players cling too desperately to this glorified past of baseball as purity while editing from history the game’s blemishes. Baseball writers are quick to declare “the steroid era” over and done with, proclaiming this the year of the pitcher because steroids have been completely removed from baseball. This reshaping of baseball’s recent past/present assumes no pitchers took steroids, ignoring the knowledge of steroid-using pitchers Andy Pettitte, Ryan Franklin, Edinson Volquez, J.C. Romero, Sergio Mitre*. It’s similar to the way no one seems to remember how many players during baseball’s untainted golden age took amphetamines (that era’s performance enhancing drug) to muster the energy to play through the season. Major League Baseball’s all-time hits leader Pete Rose isn’t allowed anywhere near anything remotely connected to the league, though one could argue he’s a lot like Ty Cobb: both played the game fiercely and are/were considered two of the best ever. While Cobb’s hustle is celebrated despite his personal flaws (he was reportedly very racist), Rose, known as “Charlie Hustle,” is almost a baseball non-entity.
*These pitchers all tested positive or admitted to using steroids. This list doesn’t include the biggest name, Roger Clemens, who has been pretty much shunned from the baseball world.
I don’t understand the selective memory regarding many aspects of the league, but I feel it can only hurt the game’s popularity. Mostly, I don’t understand why writers continue to cultivate characters and rewrite the game’s past, embracing both the good and bad of players like Cobb and glorifying the purity of the pre-steroid era. I know some fans don’t care about the story lines of individuals and just want to root for their hometown team. I fully support that, but I also think baseball holds an unexplored treasure of characters to be revealed and celebrated.
I’ll also admit that, hey, maybe baseball writers are writing about all of these things/people and I’m just looking in all the wrong places. If that’s the case, let me know. I will gladly read any baseball stories I’m missing out on.
**Photo courtesy of Keith Allison via Creative Commons License
Themed by Hunson and Five Gorillas
