October Madness II in Review
Any fool can come close to predicting the NCAA field on Selection Sunday. This fool, however, tried to do so back in October when the season was just getting under way. Last season, I accurately predicted 32 of the 65 teams. This season, my goal was to guess 40 of the 68 teams and get 10 of the exact seeds. I dubbed it the 40-10 challenge.
Well the field was released this weekend, and the results for me were a mixed bag. I easily surpassed the 40 team test, getting 46 of the entries in the field—a 14 team improvement from last season—but I fell just shy of getting 10 seeds, accurately guessing 7 seeds and missing 12 of them by just one spot.
The best calls:
- Dear Duke, Tennessee, Wofford, Temple, UC Santa Barbara, Kansas, and Xavier: I’m not sure why you bothered playing those 30+ games when I could’ve told you on Halloween exactly where you’d end up. Some people just don’t listen.
- I predicted St.John’s would return to the NCAA tournament for the first time in ten years, and despite playing the toughest schedule in the country, they surpassed even my prediction of an 11 seed by snatching up the 6 in the Southeast Region.
- I also said Texas A&M would make the tourney behind Khris Middleton, something many other prognosticators deemed too difficult. Alas, I was only off by one regarding their seed.
- Having gone to Hofstra, I am very familiar with the Colonial and knew that they were potentially a multi-bid conference this year with George Mason and Old Dominion leading the way (although I too was surprised by VCU’s at-large bid.)
- I had Saint Mary’s as one of my first four out, and sure enough, that’s right where they ended up. Sorry, Gaels.
- Interestingly enough, 4 of the 5 guys on my “All Not Making The Tourney” Team ended up leading their teams into the tourney. At least I believed in the individuals even if I didn’t believe in their team.
More fun, what I screwed up:
- While I accurately called Kansas and Duke getting 1 seeds, my other top seeds didn’t work out quite as well. Michigan State never gelled on their way to getting a generous 10 seed, and Villanova, who looked like a legitimate title contender in early January, dropped 10 of their last 15 on their way to a 9 seed. Another gaffe was getting overzealous about a Memphis revival. I had them as a 3, but they just barely made it as a 12.
- I was right on saying the Big East was wide open (I predicted a record 9 teams would get a tourney bid), but I definitely whiffed when I said it was a down year as far as top talent, saying that the ACC was “tougher top to bottom.” Total NCAA entrants: ACC: 4 Big East: 11. Oops.
- Some teams I ranked highly didn’t even make the tournament. I had NC State and Minnesota as 5 seeds, though I also pointed out that the Gophers would “go as far as (point guard) Al Nolen would take them.” Lo and behold, Nolen was lost for the season in January and things went down hill from there. Last year I said Seton Hall would make it; they did not. This year I said I would not be wrong about them again, and, well, I was. Hey, not everyone from the Big East could make it. Same with Mississippi State, though I gave them a more-than-egregious 4 seed.
- I also was pleasantly surprised when my beloved Penn State Nittany Lions made the field for the first time since I was in high school thanks to a run to the Big Ten Tournament finals. Boston College also made it and Hofstra had a decent year, so in the future I may just keep not being a homer so that I don’t jinx them.
- Worst records by teams I predicted to make it in: NC State 15-16 Seton Hall 13-18 Indiana 12-20 (yuck)
If you’d like some predictions regarding the actual tournament, here are a few thoughts:
- First Round Upsets: Richmond over Vandy, Wofford over BYU, Oakland over Texas (and then to the Sweet 16), Missouri over Cincy
- My Final Four: Ohio State, Duke, Purdue, and St.John’s. Yep, you heard me. I believe in the battle tested Red Storm.
Best of luck to everyone filling out their brackets. Enjoy the tourney.

Alex: I’m still a little sour from the Patriots premature exit from the playoffs, so it’s been hard for me to get amped up for the game. That being said, fans of the sport have plenty to look forward to: two historic organizations, Dallas’s beautiful stadium, and perhaps the last game we’ll see in a while. At the beginning of the season, like the rest of the TNIB staff, I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl, so I have to stick with them here, I’m thinking to the tune of 35-27 and I predict this will be the game that we remember Aaron Rodgers for at the end of his career. I also predict Alex Smith is sitting at home praying that during the game nobody mentions the time the Niners picked him number one while Rodgers fell into the 20s.
As I was driving around Boston earlier this week listening to the 98.5 (THE SPORTS HUUUBB!) I heard a commercial for the NHL All-Star game being played this Sunday. With only two Bruins in the game and Sidney Crosby boycotting like a child due to concussions despite sharing a locker room with the disgraceful Matt Cooke, I hadn’t been paying much attention. Then the final line of the commercial caught my attention: the teams this year would not be East vs. West, or even North America vs. The World (which I kind of liked) but picked by two captains (hometown rep Eric Staal and Niklas Lidstrom) like they were back in the schoolyard at recess. 


