Theo’s Plan II: Not a Bridge Year
Welcome to my second annual Red Sox offseason preview. Guess what? I was relatively correct last time I did this, as I predicted the addition of Beltre and Cameron, touched on the decline of Papelbon, and noted that Jed Lowrie is good if healthy. Not to toot my own horn, but…I’ll toot my own horn.
So far the Sox have made three major moves, all of which I agree with. First, after John Farrell left his role as pitching coach to become Toronto’s manager, they signed Curt Young from Oakland to be the new Red Sox pitching coach. Generally, pitching coaches are overrated—they seem to get too much credit for any success stories that occur under their tutelage, and get too much blame when a pitcher experiences a decline in performance. Farrell is a good example of this, as he is credited with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz’s success after their first couple years had some rough stretches, when the fact is that they have been great pitchers since they were in high school and it seemed like only a matter of time before they adjusted to pitching in the majors*. Similarly, he was given lots of blame for the perceived underperformance of Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, when there are other reasonable explanations for each player’s decline (Lackey adjusting to a new ballpark and division, Beckett’s conditioning, and Dice-K’s injuries and stubbornness). Therefore, I wasn’t too worried when the news came that Farrell was leaving, as I expected any new coach the Red Sox management decided on to be a solid one, given the collective knowledge of the coaching staff already in place and the immense talent of the pitching staff. That said, I doubt one could find a better option to take over than Young, since he already knows and has a good relationship with Francona and has shown excellent results in his previous work in Oakland.
*I do think Farrell deserves credit for the unexpected strong performance of Hideki Okajima, since he was the one who got him to perfect and throw his “Oki-Doki.”
Second, the team picked up their option on Scott Atchison. Atchison isn’t going to be the savior of the bullpen, but for $40k more than the league minimum salary, he’s a solid cheap option at the back of the staff. If he collapses, there’s no harm in cutting him, but he should be a good bet to repeat his 2010 performance and picking up the option is a no-brainer.
Third, the team picked up David Ortiz’s 2011 option, worth $12.5 million. This move caused some derision in Red Sox world. The panel at the recent Blogapalooza I attended seemed to be mostly against it, saying that it was too much money, that full-time DHs were on their way out and that Ortiz was likely to decline further and his “April slump,” which has occurred each of the last two seasons, was a foregone conclusion and likely to increase in length next year. Also, there were insinuations that he wasn’t really 36, even though after 9/11 there have been very few cases of players faking their ages. Vlad Guerrero’s 2010 contract was brought up as something closer to what Ortiz is really worth ($6.5 million, plus a mutual option for 2011 with a $1 mil buyout—so essentially $7.5 mil). And they’re probably close to right, though Ortiz did hit for a .899 OPS (eighth in the league) while Vlad only managed a .841 after a hot start. Except for one thing—it’s David Ortiz we’re talking about. I’ll be the first one to discount the impact of chemistry, but if you can find me anyone in Boston who has said something bad about Ortiz as a person, it’ll be the first one. Paying an extra $5 mil or so to keep an icon happy isn’t necessarily a bad deal, and he’s not hurting you at the plate either.
So, where should they go from here? Like last year’s post, I’ve organized it into steps.
1. Re-sign Adrian Beltre.
Last year, I stated that signing the free agent Beltre should be the Red Sox’s top priority as he was likely to provide around an .850 OPS in Fenway, he was the best third baseman in the league defensively, and there were very few other palatable options for the position in the near future. I would have signed him to a multi-year deal then, but given his recent injury history the one-year “make good” contract he ended up signing made sense to minimize risk. Except when I (and the Red Sox) were right and Beltre had a great year offensively, he obviously turned down the player option for 2011 and became a free agent, putting the Red Sox in the position of bidding against other teams for his services.
So, we’re in a similar position to last year. Beltre is again the best third baseman on the market. His good offensive season surprised a lot of people, but could have been foreseen by an astute observer, so not much has changed there. And again, if they don’t sign Beltre, the backup plan for third base is less than ideal.
What the other options? They could acquire a first baseman and move Youkilis to third, but Youkilis is another year removed from playing third with any regularity, and if they don’t add a top first baseman they’d be looking at a serious downgrade. Jed Lowrie played incredibly well after recovering from mononucleosis, and while his injury history is mostly one bad injury (the broken bone in his wrist in 2008) and bad luck (the aforementioned mono), he would be more valuable as the team’s shortstop, where he has more experience (more on that later). Beyond that, the Sox would need to trade for a third baseman or sign a lesser free agent, and the pickings there are very slim.
Beltre is likely to command at least a three-year deal, but he’s only 31 right now, so giving him even four guaranteed years shouldn’t be a major concern. Apart from 2009, he has remained healthy, and has always hit well outside of Seattle. While a repeat of 2010 or 2004 offensively is unlikely, it’s not out of the question that he could come close, as Seattle does have the most difficult travel schedule in baseball and one of the most brutal parks for right-handers to hit in. Given the Mariners’ complete ineptitude at the plate the last few years, maybe there’s something wrong with the coaching or training staff there as well. At the least, it didn’t work for Beltre.
In 2007, the Red Sox gave Mike Lowell a three-year deal at $12.5 mil a year for the seasons when he was age 34-36. That contract didn’t work out, but it shows that the Red Sox aren’t averse to giving multiple years to 34-year-old third basemen who provide good defense and whose swing is perfect for Fenway. Beltre will be just 32 next year and is a better player than Lowell. The “Contract Crowdsourcing” feature over at Fangraphs estimates that Beltre will get a four-year, $52 million deal. Given the dearth of other options, I might start with that, but would be willing to offer a four-year deal worth $60 million and be 100% happy if he signed it.
2. Give Jed Lowrie the starting shortstop job.
Jed Lowrie will be the best shortstop in the American League this season. Lots of people may think this is a crazy statement, but it’s not. Let’s examine.
First, it’s not too difficult right now to be the best shortstop in the American league. Last year the best-hitting AL shortstop by OPS (among those who qualified for the batting title) was Alexei Ramirez of Chicago, who put up a .744 OPS. Marco Scutaro was second on this list, and he played with a hurt shoulder for much of the year. Across the league, all shortstops hit for just a .669 OPS. There are some great shortstops in the NL, and a few AL guys look to be on their way up, but right now, if you have a guy who can field well and get on base every once in a while, you should consider yourself lucky.
What did Jed Lowrie hit last year? Oh, just a .907 OPS in 197 plate appearances.
Which brings me to my second point: Jed Lowrie is a pretty good hitter. There are two big myths about Jed Lowrie that I’d like to dispel. First, that his 2010 production came out of nowhere. Second, that he is injury-prone. The two are related.
In 2008, Lowrie was a reasonably well-regarded prospect who had worked his way slowly but surely up the system. He switched from second base to shortstop, which slowed his development some, and also had an ankle injury in 2006, though he still played 97 games. In 2007 he had hit quite well at three levels, culminating in a .862 OPS at Pawtucket and a #73 ranking on Baseball America’s top prospect list. He injured his wrist in Pawtucket in May, but was able to keep playing, and when Julio Lugo got hurt he was called up to the Red Sox and more or less played every day for the rest of the season. The wrist continued to bother him more and more, but since he was the Red Sox’s best option at short beyond Alex Cora, he stayed on the field and helped the Red Sox reach the playoffs.
After the season the news came out that Lowrie had actually broken a bone in his wrist and this had severely hampered his hitting, particularly from the left side of the plate. He didn’t have surgery, but the wrist still bothered him when he began play the next year and he had to be shut down and undergo surgery, so 2009 was essentially a lost year. In spring training of 2010, hopes were high for him as he was completely recovered from the wrist injury, but he unfortunately came down with mono, and had to miss about half the year.
So that’s Lowrie’s injury history. He essentially has had just one bad injury, which he’s fully recovered from, and one disease, which he’s also shown he’s fully recovered from. Now, the case can be made that guys who get injuries from playing “balls-to-the-wall” are injury-prone, as are guys who have a lot of muscle pulls, and maybe guys who take poor care of themselves. But Lowrie is none of those things. Simiarly, players who have reputations as being “injury-prone” are often guys like J.D. Drew and (maybe) Ellsbury this year who show a tendency to not play through injuries. Everyone gets banged up during the season, but Drew often needs to take a few games off here and there after pulling a muscle, or with a sore shoulder. People argue that he should be playing through these injuries (which I disagree with) and be more like Ripken, who was (likely) banged up a lot during his streak, but was a “gamer” and stayed on the field.
Most players who played through an injury and helped their team to a playoff berth when the other options to play their (important) position were poor would get a reputation as a gamer and garner lots of deserved accolades. Somehow Jed Lowrie has gained a reputation for being injury-prone, even though if he had told Francona in 2008, “Sorry, Tito, my wrist hurts too much, I gotta sit” he would have likely healed faster/better and had a more normal career path.
I’m confused about this perception. Lowrie should remain healthy, and while he is probably not going to put up a .900 OPS for a whole season, he seemed to only get stronger as the season went on and he was essentially playing every day by September. While he wasn’t rated a top prospect by the magazines, neither were Kevin Youkilis or Dustin Pedroia, or for that matter Jon Lester, and they produced well at the major league level. I have a theory that the Red Sox focus less on the results of their prospects and more on the process—that is, they have their prospects work on certain things in the minors (Lowrie and Pedroia’s defense, Lester’s secondary pitches) and promote them based on their progress and reports from coaches rather than just on numbers. That might cause someone creating a prospect list to underrate them since they don’t know that the player is focusing on particular aspects of his game. Either that, or the Red Sox like to draft late bloomers.
3. Let Victor Martinez go elsewhere.
Victor Martinez is a solid catcher. He’s an excellent hitter and seems to be serviceable defensively. He’s not great at throwing runners out but does an OK job, and similarly, he’s not great at blocking balls in the dirt but isn’t a major liability back there. Whether or not he’s a good pitch-caller is tougher to figure out, as C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee did pretty well in Cleveland with him, as did Lester and Buchholz this year, but Lackey, Beckett, and Dice-K underperformed.
Anyway, it would be great to have Victor Martinez on the Red Sox in 2011 and 2012. But by 2013, he’s not likely to be able to catch very often, and even if he can, his defense is likely to have deteriorated further. And his bat is great for a catcher, but isn’t exceptional, and is unimpressive for a first baseman or DH. Given that he’s likely to receive at least a three-year deal and is a type A free agent, it would be a wise move to let him sign elsewhere, save the $10 million he’s likely to make, take the two draft picks, and not risk paying him through a likely decline.
The best argument for re-signing Martinez is that they don’t have a good replacement in-house. There options at catcher are Jason Varitek, who had a strong start in 2010 before missing most of the year with a broken foot or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has shown great offensive potential, but struggled to stick in the majors, first in Atlanta and then in Texas. Beyond those guys, they’d have to sign a free agent or promote a prospect, and while they have some strong catching prospects in their system, none of them seem to be MLB-ready yet.
Fortunately for the Sox, the MLB catchers they currently have have complimentary platoon splits. Varitek is still a solid hitter against lefties, as he posted a .868 OPS last year, an .807 OPS in 2009, and an .863 OPS against lefties in 2008—all years in which he struggled against righties. Saltalamacchia has a career .765 OPS against righties, which isn’t great, but if the two can combine for an OPS in the high .700s, that would make catching a strong point offensively, as just six catchers with over 100 PAs hit for an .800 OPS last year.
Outside the organization, there are some options, but none seem to be a perfect fit. John Buck would be a good stopgap signing, as the free agent put up a .487 slugging percentage over the last two years and as a type B free agent wouldn’t require the Sox to relinquish any draft picks. The problem with signing Buck is that he’d likely want the starting job, which he deserves, but which could stunt the development of Saltalamacchia and probably force the Sox to cut ties with Varitek, since it’s unlikely they’d carry three catchers when two of them can’t play another position (though I wish that were an option teams would explore more seriously instead of having 12 pitchers).
Through trade, the Red Sox have eyed some targets in the past, such as the Rockies’ Chris Iannetta or the Diamondbacks’ Miguel Montero, but neither of those appear to be a good fit now, as their respective teams have showed a renewed enthusiasm for them. At this point, it seems that either trade would require a top Red Sox prospect, and I don’t see that happening.
It probably makes the most sense to let Martinez sign elsewhere, stand pat with Saltalamacchia and Varitek, sign some AAAA guy as an emergency backup, and hope for the best. While this isn’t the sexiest choice (though NESN reporter Heidi Watney, who was rumored to have dated Tek, may disagree), it would likely give the team solid production, keep them from being locked in a long contract, and allow them to spend money elsewhere. Keeping Varitek around would not only keep a Red Sox legend happy, but if the Captain’s famous “computer brain” is what it’s cracked up to be, the pitching staff and Saltalamacchia’s development should be aided.
4. Bolster the bullpen.
While the injuries to the team did far more damage to the 2010 Red Sox, it certainly seemed like the bullpen was a bigger problem. Going into the season, they looked relatively solid. Jonathan Papelbon had shown some weaknesses in 2009 and had blown a save in their final game of the year (as I noted), but he was a top closer and was expected to rebound. Daniel Bard had had a sensational rookie season and looked to build upon that as the team’s set-up man. Beyond that, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez had always been solid, and they had the mercurial but talented Manny Delcarmen. They also added some lottery tickets in Dustin Richardson, Scott Atchison, Scott Schoenweis, and Boof Bonser, and as always had Tim Wakefield ready to fill a role in the pen or the rotation as necessary.
As with their injury problems, nearly everything that could go wrong did. Papelbon pitched about the same as he had in 2009, but his meltdowns seemed to come in tie or one-run games instead of ones in which he had more wiggle room. Hideki Okajima imploded, putting up a 6.00 ERA in the first half, and beyond Dan Bard, no one picked up the slack, and both Ramirez and Delcarmen were jettisoned to the National League, a.k.a. “Where Red Sox flameouts go to thrive.” Okajima improved in the second half, but Bard was less dominant, likely due to being somewhat overworked as the Sox’ only reliable 7th-8th inning option.
All in all, the Red Sox bullpen pitched 445 innings with a 4.24 ERA and was charged with 23 losses. Their 4.59 RA was 11th in the AL, and while blown saves aren’t the best measure of effectiveness, they were second only to Baltimore in this category. Beyond Bard, there wasn’t much good news there.
Where should they go from here? Well, Bard will be back and should anchor the pen. Papelbon is going to earn a lot of money in his final year of arbitration, so a trade is unlikely, and while he’s not likely to be worth the money he’ll make, he should be a solid pitcher. While his ERA jumped from 1.85 to 3.90, Papelbon’s peripherals remained consistent and he can be confidently projected for around a 3.00 ERA—not top-of-the-line stuff, but given that the closer often doesn’t pitch in the highest leverage situations, it can be advantageous for a team to have its set-up relievers be better than its closer while the closer pitches the 9th with a three-run lead (a lead that nearly any major league pitcher should be able to protect most of the time). Scott Atchison’s option has been picked up, and he’ll be a cheap arm for the 6th or 7th option in the pen. As noted, Hideki Okajima pitched well down the stretch and was re-signed for $2.75 mil. One would think that given his struggles last year, he won’t be given as many opportunities to lose games if he can’t regain his form. In the minors, they have a couple AAAA guys with promise in Fernando Cabrera and Robert Manuel, but neither have impressed in the cups of coffee they’ve been given thus far. They also have some starting pitching prospects who pitched out of the bullpen last year in Felix Doubrount and Michael Bowden, but the team hasn’t given up on them being starters, so they’re only likely to see the Fenway pen in an emergency. That’s all. So here’s where we stand:
Closer: Papelbon
Set-up: Bard
LHP: Okajima
RHP: Atchison
Other options: Wakefield, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubrount.
It’s not a bad start, but they could use some help. Fortunately, there are a lot of relievers on the free agent market. Normally, signing free agent relievers is a poor move, as they are very unpredictable and it’s often possible to get good relievers for free or cheap, rather than giving them guaranteed contracts. And signing type A free agents is almost always a bad idea; it’s not worth guaranteeing a bunch of money to a reliever as well as giving up a draft pick. For a team like this year’s Red Sox, who are strong all across the diamond and have some money to spend, adding a few free agent relievers could be the right choice to solidify the bullpen. Here’s who I’d target:
- Joaquin Benoit. Benoit has battled injuries during his career, but when healthy has always had great stuff. He was one of the best relievers in the league last year for Tampa Bay. He put up a 1.34 ERA and had a fantastic 75/11 K/BB ratio in 60 IP. He allowed six HR, but did almost everything else right and is a great target. Best of all, he wouldn’t require giving up a draft pick. He may be looking for closer money, but given his injury history he may not get more than a two-year offer, and if that’s what it takes then the Sox should pounce.
- J.J. Putz. Putz, like Benoit, has a significant injury history, but was healthy last year. Here’s a good breakdown of the pros and cons of Putz. Since he was once a closer, he may be more likely to get an offer from somewhere to be a closer, so this seems a less likely option than Benoit.
Others to consider: Jon Rauch, Koji Uehara, and Brian Fuentes.
Ideally the Red Sox would sign two of these guys, giving them a strong bullpen and allowing any “lottery tickets” they pick up to avoid being forced into action.
5. Don’t trade for Adrian Gonzalez.
I’m sure you’ve read myriad rumors about Adrian Gonzalez being on the market and how attractive he is for the Red Sox. I don’t see it happening for two main reasons.
First, it doesn’t make sense for the Padres. San Diego came within one game of the playoffs last year, and most of their pieces are returning. They saw the team who beat them out win the World Series. Now, no one expected them to be so competitive last year, but I don’t think anyone had the Giants winning the series either. Essentially, the division is up for grabs and the Padres have as good a chance as anyone at taking it. Now, I know San Diego is not very likely to re-sign Gonzalez, but if they hold onto him for the upcoming season, they have a good chance at the playoffs, and even if they let him go they will get two draft picks for him. If they don’t like their chances at the trading deadline, they can trade him then—look at the haul the Rangers got for Mark Teixiera in a very similar situation (Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, if you forgot). And given that he is from the area, they must have some hope of re-signing him, even though they’re not likely to be able to afford such a commitment. So I see the Padres holding onto Gonzalez until at least the trading deadline, and even then not letting him go for cheap.
Second, it doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox, at least not right now. Yes, he would hit well in Fenway and is a good long-term fit for the team. But for 2010, they still have David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, and Saltalamacchia can also fill in at first. Yes, Youkilis could move to third, but his defense there isn’t as good as at first and it’s only going to get worse as he gets older. Plus, Adrian Beltre is a much better fit at third, or even Jed Lowrie. Finally, since Gonzalez is going to be a free agent after this season, it makes just as much sense to wait and then just give up a draft pick to sign him instead of having to give up top prospects like Casey Kelly or even a major league player like Jacoby Ellsbury. While they’d have a period of time to negotiate with Gonzalez exclusively, they’re not likely to get a significant discount over simply signing him as a free agent.
Also, I think Kevin Youkilis is underappreciated by the fans who are clamoring to add Gonzalez. Youkilis’s hard-nosed style has caused some injuries (though his thumb injury last year seems like a freak thing), but when healthy he has been neck-and-neck with Mark Teixeira as the best all-around first baseman in the league. He can play defense, hit for average, and while we all know he’s patient, he has underrated power, hitting for a .560 slugging percentage the last three years combined. (For reference, Jason Bay, the “big bat” the Sox were missing last year, has never had a slugging percentage that high in a single season.)
If the Sox want A-Gon, they have a great shot at him in the 2011 offseason, and by then they won’t have David Ortiz under contract. But for 2010, there’s no space for Gonzalez without passing on a better option.
6. Otherwise: Stand Pat.
It’s not a stretch to say that the Red Sox lost ten wins to injuries last year. Pedroia and Youkilis missed half the season and are conservatively worth about 4-5 wins above replacement per year. Jacoby Ellsbury missed almost the entire year and could be conservatively projected to be worth around three wins. Adding in the time missed by Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez brings the total above ten wins and that’s before accounting for Mike Cameron and the pitchers who missed time. Given that the team won 89 games with all its injuries, it seems like bringing most of the same team back would give them a great shot at 95-100 wins and the playoffs, given a normal amount of injuries.
Beyond Beltre and Martinez, shortstop, and the bullpen, which they have to make decisions on, Theo should stand pat and let his team play. Players like Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford are attractive, but are likely to receive huge contracts and the Red Sox have solid, if not great, in-house options in Ellsbury, Cameron, and 2010’s surprising rookie Ryan Kalish. Cliff Lee would be nice to have (and to keep away from the Yankees) but would again require a huge salary commitment, and in this case would require the trade of a starter. Simply re-signing Beltre, giving Lowrie the shortstop job, adding pieces to the bullpen and bolstering the depth should make the 2011 Red Sox once again a good bet for 95-100 wins and a playoff berth.
**Photo courtesy of Chuck Welch via Creative Commons License
