Theo’s Plan II: Not a Bridge Year

Welcome to my second annual Red Sox offseason preview. Guess what? I was relatively correct last time I did this, as I predicted the addition of Beltre and Cameron, touched on the decline of Papelbon, and noted that Jed Lowrie is good if healthy. Not to toot my own horn, but…I’ll toot my own horn.

So far the Sox have made three major moves, all of which I agree with. First, after John Farrell left his role as pitching coach to become Toronto’s manager, they signed Curt Young from Oakland to be the new Red Sox pitching coach. Generally, pitching coaches are overrated—they seem to get too much credit for any success stories that occur under their tutelage, and get too much blame when a pitcher experiences a decline in performance. Farrell is a good example of this, as he is credited with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz’s success after their first couple years had some rough stretches, when the fact is that they have been great pitchers since they were in high school and it seemed like only a matter of time before they adjusted to pitching in the majors*. Similarly, he was given lots of blame for the perceived underperformance of Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, when there are other reasonable explanations for each player’s decline (Lackey adjusting to a new ballpark and division, Beckett’s conditioning, and Dice-K’s injuries and stubbornness). Therefore, I wasn’t too worried when the news came that Farrell was leaving, as I expected any new coach the Red Sox management decided on to be a solid one, given the collective knowledge of the coaching staff already in place and the immense talent of the pitching staff. That said, I doubt one could find a better option to take over than Young, since he already knows and has a good relationship with Francona and has shown excellent results in his previous work in Oakland.

*I do think Farrell deserves credit for the unexpected strong performance of Hideki Okajima, since he was the one who got him to perfect and throw his “Oki-Doki.”

Second, the team picked up their option on Scott Atchison. Atchison isn’t going to be the savior of the bullpen, but for $40k more than the league minimum salary, he’s a solid cheap option at the back of the staff. If he collapses, there’s no harm in cutting him, but he should be a good bet to repeat his 2010 performance and picking up the option is a no-brainer.

Third, the team picked up David Ortiz’s 2011 option, worth $12.5 million. This move caused some derision in Red Sox world. The panel at the recent Blogapalooza I attended seemed to be mostly against it, saying that it was too much money, that full-time DHs were on their way out and that Ortiz was likely to decline further and his “April slump,” which has occurred each of the last two seasons, was a foregone conclusion and likely to increase in length next year. Also, there were insinuations that he wasn’t really 36, even though after 9/11 there have been very few cases of players faking their ages. Vlad Guerrero’s 2010 contract was brought up as something closer to what Ortiz is really worth ($6.5 million, plus a mutual option for 2011 with a $1 mil buyout—so essentially $7.5 mil). And they’re probably close to right, though Ortiz did hit for a .899 OPS (eighth in the league) while Vlad only managed a .841 after a hot start. Except for one thing—it’s David Ortiz we’re talking about. I’ll be the first one to discount the impact of chemistry, but if you can find me anyone in Boston who has said something bad about Ortiz as a person, it’ll be the first one. Paying an extra $5 mil or so to keep an icon happy isn’t necessarily a bad deal, and he’s not hurting you at the plate either.

So, where should they go from here? Like last year’s post, I’ve organized it into steps.

1. Re-sign Adrian Beltre.
Last year, I stated that signing the free agent Beltre should be the Red Sox’s top priority as he was likely to provide around an .850 OPS in Fenway, he was the best third baseman in the league defensively, and there were very few other palatable options for the position in the near future. I would have signed him to a multi-year deal then, but given his recent injury history the one-year “make good” contract he ended up signing made sense to minimize risk. Except when I (and the Red Sox) were right and Beltre had a great year offensively, he obviously turned down the player option for 2011 and became a free agent, putting the Red Sox in the position of bidding against other teams for his services.

So, we’re in a similar position to last year. Beltre is again the best third baseman on the market. His good offensive season surprised a lot of people, but could have been foreseen by an astute observer, so not much has changed there. And again, if they don’t sign Beltre, the backup plan for third base is less than ideal.

What the other options? They could acquire a first baseman and move Youkilis to third, but Youkilis is another year removed from playing third with any regularity, and if they don’t add a top first baseman they’d be looking at a serious downgrade. Jed Lowrie played incredibly well after recovering from mononucleosis, and while his injury history is mostly one bad injury (the broken bone in his wrist in 2008) and bad luck (the aforementioned mono), he would be more valuable as the team’s shortstop, where he has more experience (more on that later). Beyond that, the Sox would need to trade for a third baseman or sign a lesser free agent, and the pickings there are very slim.

Beltre is likely to command at least a three-year deal, but he’s only 31 right now, so giving him even four guaranteed years shouldn’t be a major concern. Apart from 2009, he has remained healthy, and has always hit well outside of Seattle. While a repeat of 2010 or 2004 offensively is unlikely, it’s not out of the question that he could come close, as Seattle does have the most difficult travel schedule in baseball and one of the most brutal parks for right-handers to hit in. Given the Mariners’ complete ineptitude at the plate the last few years, maybe there’s something wrong with the coaching or training staff there as well. At the least, it didn’t work for Beltre.

In 2007, the Red Sox gave Mike Lowell a three-year deal at $12.5 mil a year for the seasons when he was age 34-36. That contract didn’t work out, but it shows that the Red Sox aren’t averse to giving multiple years to 34-year-old third basemen who provide good defense and whose swing is perfect for Fenway. Beltre will be just 32 next year and is a better player than Lowell. The “Contract Crowdsourcing” feature over at Fangraphs estimates that Beltre will get a four-year, $52 million deal. Given the dearth of other options, I might start with that, but would be willing to offer a four-year deal worth $60 million and be 100% happy if he signed it.

2. Give Jed Lowrie the starting shortstop job.
Jed Lowrie will be the best shortstop in the American League this season. Lots of people may think this is a crazy statement, but it’s not. Let’s examine.

First, it’s not too difficult right now to be the best shortstop in the American league. Last year the best-hitting AL shortstop by OPS (among those who qualified for the batting title) was Alexei Ramirez of Chicago, who put up a .744 OPS. Marco Scutaro was second on this list, and he played with a hurt shoulder for much of the year. Across the league, all shortstops hit for just a .669 OPS. There are some great shortstops in the NL, and a few AL guys look to be on their way up, but right now, if you have a guy who can field well and get on base every once in a while, you should consider yourself lucky.

What did Jed Lowrie hit last year? Oh, just a .907 OPS in 197 plate appearances.

Which brings me to my second point: Jed Lowrie is a pretty good hitter. There are two big myths about Jed Lowrie that I’d like to dispel. First, that his 2010 production came out of nowhere. Second, that he is injury-prone. The two are related.

In 2008, Lowrie was a reasonably well-regarded prospect who had worked his way slowly but surely up the system. He switched from second base to shortstop, which slowed his development some, and also had an ankle injury in 2006, though he still played 97 games. In 2007 he had hit quite well at three levels, culminating in a .862 OPS at Pawtucket and a #73 ranking on Baseball America’s top prospect list. He injured his wrist in Pawtucket in May, but was able to keep playing, and when Julio Lugo got hurt he was called up to the Red Sox and more or less played every day for the rest of the season. The wrist continued to bother him more and more, but since he was the Red Sox’s best option at short beyond Alex Cora, he stayed on the field and helped the Red Sox reach the playoffs.

After the season the news came out that Lowrie had actually broken a bone in his wrist and this had severely hampered his hitting, particularly from the left side of the plate. He didn’t have surgery, but the wrist still bothered him when he began play the next year and he had to be shut down and undergo surgery, so 2009 was essentially a lost year. In spring training of 2010, hopes were high for him as he was completely recovered from the wrist injury, but he unfortunately came down with mono, and had to miss about half the year.

So that’s Lowrie’s injury history. He essentially has had just one bad injury, which he’s fully recovered from, and one disease, which he’s also shown he’s fully recovered from. Now, the case can be made that guys who get injuries from playing “balls-to-the-wall” are injury-prone, as are guys who have a lot of muscle pulls, and maybe guys who take poor care of themselves. But Lowrie is none of those things. Simiarly, players who have reputations as being “injury-prone” are often guys like J.D. Drew and (maybe) Ellsbury this year who show a tendency to not play through injuries. Everyone gets banged up during the season, but Drew often needs to take a few games off here and there after pulling a muscle, or with a sore shoulder. People argue that he should be playing through these injuries (which I disagree with) and be more like Ripken, who was (likely) banged up a lot during his streak, but was a “gamer” and stayed on the field.

Most players who played through an injury and helped their team to a playoff berth when the other options to play their (important) position were poor would get a reputation as a gamer and garner lots of deserved accolades. Somehow Jed Lowrie has gained a reputation for being injury-prone, even though if he had told Francona in 2008, “Sorry, Tito, my wrist hurts too much, I gotta sit” he would have likely healed faster/better and had a more normal career path.

I’m confused about this perception. Lowrie should remain healthy, and while he is probably not going to put up a .900 OPS for a whole season, he seemed to only get stronger as the season went on and he was essentially playing every day by September. While he wasn’t rated a top prospect by the magazines, neither were Kevin Youkilis or Dustin Pedroia, or for that matter Jon Lester, and they produced well at the major league level. I have a theory that the Red Sox focus less on the results of their prospects and more on the process—that is, they have their prospects work on certain things in the minors (Lowrie and Pedroia’s defense, Lester’s secondary pitches) and promote them based on their progress and reports from coaches rather than just on numbers. That might cause someone creating a prospect list to underrate them since they don’t know that the player is focusing on particular aspects of his game. Either that, or the Red Sox like to draft late bloomers.

3. Let Victor Martinez go elsewhere.
Victor Martinez is a solid catcher. He’s an excellent hitter and seems to be serviceable defensively. He’s not great at throwing runners out but does an OK job, and similarly, he’s not great at blocking balls in the dirt but isn’t a major liability back there. Whether or not he’s a good pitch-caller is tougher to figure out, as C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee did pretty well in Cleveland with him, as did Lester and Buchholz this year, but Lackey, Beckett, and Dice-K underperformed.

Anyway, it would be great to have Victor Martinez on the Red Sox in 2011 and 2012. But by 2013, he’s not likely to be able to catch very often, and even if he can, his defense is likely to have deteriorated further. And his bat is great for a catcher, but isn’t exceptional, and is unimpressive for a first baseman or DH. Given that he’s likely to receive at least a three-year deal and is a type A free agent, it would be a wise move to let him sign elsewhere, save the $10 million he’s likely to make, take the two draft picks, and not risk paying him through a likely decline.

The best argument for re-signing Martinez is that they don’t have a good replacement in-house. There options at catcher are Jason Varitek, who had a strong start in 2010 before missing most of the year with a broken foot or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has shown great offensive potential, but struggled to stick in the majors, first in Atlanta and then in Texas. Beyond those guys, they’d have to sign a free agent or promote a prospect, and while they have some strong catching prospects in their system, none of them seem to be MLB-ready yet.

Fortunately for the Sox, the MLB catchers they currently have have complimentary platoon splits. Varitek is still a solid hitter against lefties, as he posted a .868 OPS last year, an .807 OPS in 2009, and an .863 OPS against lefties in 2008—all years in which he struggled against righties. Saltalamacchia has a career .765 OPS against righties, which isn’t great, but if the two can combine for an OPS in the high .700s, that would make catching a strong point offensively, as just six catchers with over 100 PAs hit for an .800 OPS last year.

Outside the organization, there are some options, but none seem to be a perfect fit. John Buck would be a good stopgap signing, as the free agent put up a .487 slugging percentage over the last two years and as a type B free agent wouldn’t require the Sox to relinquish any draft picks. The problem with signing Buck is that he’d likely want the starting job, which he deserves, but which could stunt the development of Saltalamacchia and probably force the Sox to cut ties with Varitek, since it’s unlikely they’d carry three catchers when two of them can’t play another position (though I wish that were an option teams would explore more seriously instead of having 12 pitchers).

Through trade, the Red Sox have eyed some targets in the past, such as the Rockies’ Chris Iannetta or the Diamondbacks’ Miguel Montero, but neither of those appear to be a good fit now, as their respective teams have showed a renewed enthusiasm for them. At this point, it seems that either trade would require a top Red Sox prospect, and I don’t see that happening.

It probably makes the most sense to let Martinez sign elsewhere, stand pat with Saltalamacchia and Varitek, sign some AAAA guy as an emergency backup, and hope for the best. While this isn’t the sexiest choice (though NESN reporter Heidi Watney, who was rumored to have dated Tek, may disagree), it would likely give the team solid production, keep them from being locked in a long contract, and allow them to spend money elsewhere. Keeping Varitek around would not only keep a Red Sox legend happy, but if the Captain’s famous “computer brain” is what it’s cracked up to be, the pitching staff and Saltalamacchia’s development should be aided.

4. Bolster the bullpen.
While the injuries to the team did far more damage to the 2010 Red Sox, it certainly seemed like the bullpen was a bigger problem. Going into the season, they looked relatively solid. Jonathan Papelbon had shown some weaknesses in 2009 and had blown a save in their final game of the year (as I noted), but he was a top closer and was expected to rebound. Daniel Bard had had a sensational rookie season and looked to build upon that as the team’s set-up man. Beyond that, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez had always been solid, and they had the mercurial but talented Manny Delcarmen. They also added some lottery tickets in Dustin Richardson, Scott Atchison, Scott Schoenweis, and Boof Bonser, and as always had Tim Wakefield ready to fill a role in the pen or the rotation as necessary.

As with their injury problems, nearly everything that could go wrong did. Papelbon pitched about the same as he had in 2009, but his meltdowns seemed to come in tie or one-run games instead of ones in which he had more wiggle room. Hideki Okajima imploded, putting up a 6.00 ERA in the first half, and beyond Dan Bard, no one picked up the slack, and both Ramirez and Delcarmen were jettisoned to the National League, a.k.a. “Where Red Sox flameouts go to thrive.” Okajima improved in the second half, but Bard was less dominant, likely due to being somewhat overworked as the Sox’ only reliable 7th-8th inning option.

All in all, the Red Sox bullpen pitched 445 innings with a 4.24 ERA and was charged with 23 losses. Their 4.59 RA was 11th in the AL, and while blown saves aren’t the best measure of effectiveness, they were second only to Baltimore in this category. Beyond Bard, there wasn’t much good news there.

Where should they go from here? Well, Bard will be back and should anchor the pen. Papelbon is going to earn a lot of money in his final year of arbitration, so a trade is unlikely, and while he’s not likely to be worth the money he’ll make, he should be a solid pitcher. While his ERA jumped from 1.85 to 3.90, Papelbon’s peripherals remained consistent and he can be confidently projected for around a 3.00 ERA—not top-of-the-line stuff, but given that the closer often doesn’t pitch in the highest leverage situations, it can be advantageous for a team to have its set-up relievers be better than its closer while the closer pitches the 9th with a three-run lead (a lead that nearly any major league pitcher should be able to protect most of the time). Scott Atchison’s option has been picked up, and he’ll be a cheap arm for the 6th or 7th option in the pen. As noted, Hideki Okajima pitched well down the stretch and was re-signed for $2.75 mil. One would think that given his struggles last year, he won’t be given as many opportunities to lose games if he can’t regain his form. In the minors, they have a couple AAAA guys with promise in Fernando Cabrera and Robert Manuel, but neither have impressed in the cups of coffee they’ve been given thus far. They also have some starting pitching prospects who pitched out of the bullpen last year in Felix Doubrount and Michael Bowden, but the team hasn’t given up on them being starters, so they’re only likely to see the Fenway pen in an emergency. That’s all. So here’s where we stand:

Closer: Papelbon
Set-up: Bard
LHP: Okajima
RHP: Atchison
Other options: Wakefield, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubrount.

It’s not a bad start, but they could use some help. Fortunately, there are a lot of relievers on the free agent market. Normally, signing free agent relievers is a poor move, as they are very unpredictable and it’s often possible to get good relievers for free or cheap, rather than giving them guaranteed contracts. And signing type A free agents is almost always a bad idea; it’s not worth guaranteeing a bunch of money to a reliever as well as giving up a draft pick. For a team like this year’s Red Sox, who are strong all across the diamond and have some money to spend, adding a few free agent relievers could be the right choice to solidify the bullpen. Here’s who I’d target:

- Joaquin Benoit. Benoit has battled injuries during his career, but when healthy has always had great stuff. He was one of the best relievers in the league last year for Tampa Bay. He put up a 1.34 ERA and had a fantastic 75/11 K/BB ratio in 60 IP. He allowed six HR, but did almost everything else right and is a great target. Best of all, he wouldn’t require giving up a draft pick. He may be looking for closer money, but given his injury history he may not get more than a two-year offer, and if that’s what it takes then the Sox should pounce.

- J.J. Putz. Putz, like Benoit, has a significant injury history, but was healthy last year. Here’s a good breakdown of the pros and cons of Putz. Since he was once a closer, he may be more likely to get an offer from somewhere to be a closer, so this seems a less likely option than Benoit.

Others to consider: Jon Rauch, Koji Uehara, and Brian Fuentes.

Ideally the Red Sox would sign two of these guys, giving them a strong bullpen and allowing any “lottery tickets” they pick up to avoid being forced into action.

5. Don’t trade for Adrian Gonzalez.
I’m sure you’ve read myriad rumors about Adrian Gonzalez being on the market and how attractive he is for the Red Sox. I don’t see it happening for two main reasons.

First, it doesn’t make sense for the Padres. San Diego came within one game of the playoffs last year, and most of their pieces are returning. They saw the team who beat them out win the World Series. Now, no one expected them to be so competitive last year, but I don’t think anyone had the Giants winning the series either. Essentially, the division is up for grabs and the Padres have as good a chance as anyone at taking it. Now, I know San Diego is not very likely to re-sign Gonzalez, but if they hold onto him for the upcoming season, they have a good chance at the playoffs, and even if they let him go they will get two draft picks for him. If they don’t like their chances at the trading deadline, they can trade him then—look at the haul the Rangers got for Mark Teixiera in a very similar situation (Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, if you forgot). And given that he is from the area, they must have some hope of re-signing him, even though they’re not likely to be able to afford such a commitment. So I see the Padres holding onto Gonzalez until at least the trading deadline, and even then not letting him go for cheap.

Second, it doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox, at least not right now. Yes, he would hit well in Fenway and is a good long-term fit for the team. But for 2010, they still have David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, and Saltalamacchia can also fill in at first. Yes, Youkilis could move to third, but his defense there isn’t as good as at first and it’s only going to get worse as he gets older. Plus, Adrian Beltre is a much better fit at third, or even Jed Lowrie. Finally, since Gonzalez is going to be a free agent after this season, it makes just as much sense to wait and then just give up a draft pick to sign him instead of having to give up top prospects like Casey Kelly or even a major league player like Jacoby Ellsbury. While they’d have a period of time to negotiate with Gonzalez exclusively, they’re not likely to get a significant discount over simply signing him as a free agent.

Also, I think Kevin Youkilis is underappreciated by the fans who are clamoring to add Gonzalez. Youkilis’s hard-nosed style has caused some injuries (though his thumb injury last year seems like a freak thing), but when healthy he has been neck-and-neck with Mark Teixeira as the best all-around first baseman in the league. He can play defense, hit for average, and while we all know he’s patient, he has underrated power, hitting for a .560 slugging percentage the last three years combined. (For reference, Jason Bay, the “big bat” the Sox were missing last year, has never had a slugging percentage that high in a single season.)

If the Sox want A-Gon, they have a great shot at him in the 2011 offseason, and by then they won’t have David Ortiz under contract. But for 2010, there’s no space for Gonzalez without passing on a better option.

6. Otherwise: Stand Pat.
It’s not a stretch to say that the Red Sox lost ten wins to injuries last year. Pedroia and Youkilis missed half the season and are conservatively worth about 4-5 wins above replacement per year. Jacoby Ellsbury missed almost the entire year and could be conservatively projected to be worth around three wins. Adding in the time missed by Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez brings the total above ten wins and that’s before accounting for Mike Cameron and the pitchers who missed time. Given that the team won 89 games with all its injuries, it seems like bringing most of the same team back would give them a great shot at 95-100 wins and the playoffs, given a normal amount of injuries.

Beyond Beltre and Martinez, shortstop, and the bullpen, which they have to make decisions on, Theo should stand pat and let his team play. Players like Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford are attractive, but are likely to receive huge contracts and the Red Sox have solid, if not great, in-house options in Ellsbury, Cameron, and 2010’s surprising rookie Ryan Kalish. Cliff Lee would be nice to have (and to keep away from the Yankees) but would again require a huge salary commitment, and in this case would require the trade of a starter. Simply re-signing Beltre, giving Lowrie the shortstop job, adding pieces to the bullpen and bolstering the depth should make the 2011 Red Sox once again a good bet for 95-100 wins and a playoff berth.

**Photo courtesy of Chuck Welch via Creative Commons License

Son of a Beach!

9:09 PM EST, Thursday, July 8, 2010…doesn’t it feel like all of our sports lives are about to change as we know them? LeBron announced where he will be playing basketball for the next five years or so. As much as I’ve been smearing him for setting up this media carnival and showcase for his ego, I have to admit, I didn’t change the channel. Like it or not, whether LeBron ever wins a ring, the NBA next season is going to look vastly different than it did in ‘09-‘10, and LeBron is the at the center of this universe in flux. It fits in with the idea of LeBron the Global (Universal?) Icon, who over the past couple years seems much more determined perhaps than LeBron the player.

Granted, this is unfair: I’m torn on how to feel about LeBron’s considering fleeing the Cavs to get help to win his rings elsewhere. People are continuously saying “Jordan wouldn’t do that; Kobe wouldn’t do that,” but Jordan a) was unquestionably the best player who has ever lived and b) played in one of the worst eras talent-wise the NBA has seen. When Bird and Magic’s generation faded, teams could get by on one superstar being surrounded by marginal players, but even Jordan had Pippen, often overlooked and yet a member of the NBA’s silver anniversary team in his own right. Kobe almost left the Lakers after missing the playoffs, and the same people who are now chastising LeBron were the ones who were irate when the Lakers stole Pau Gasol from Memphis. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are playing during an extremely competitive time in the NBA. It takes six, seven, eight guys to win a title, not three.

Anyway, here is a key to what we’re learning about LeBron based on his decision:
Cleveland - Is loyal like a dog with a sick owner; admirable, but a poor professional decision.
Miami - He wants to win without the pressure of being “the man.”
Chicago - He wants to win with the pressure of being “the man” (in Jordan’s shadow no less).
New York - He wants to be a global icon.
New Jersey - I don’t know. It’s kind of crazy, but it’s kind of not. The icon level is low in Jersey, but when they move to Brooklyn? I don’t even know what I would make of this, but it’s not going to happen unless he has beer goggles that make Travis Outlaw look like David Thompson.
LA Clippers - He hates winning, money, and his ACLs and wants them to be shattered instantly.

Here is a breakdown of my thoughts as his infomercial unfolded on what it means for him, for the Eastern Conference, for the NBA over the next decade, and for us as human beings.

9:27 - Still waiting. I would like to note that I had the same beard as LeBron my senior year of college, but I don’t hear anyone calling him Abe Lincoln.

9:28 - So it’s Miami…Pat Riley, Bosh, Wade….uh…Beasley (for now)….umm…Chalmers? This is what we suspected for the past 24 hours, but now that it’s final, let’s quickly break down what it means for everyone involved.

First and foremost, the Heat. They now have three all-stars and two superstars to go with a handful of second-round picks and not much money to fill out the squad. The Celtics won a title with three just-past-their-prime guys in Pierce, Garnett, and Ray Allen, so there is some precedent for this, despite what everyone in the media wants you to think. However, these three are all younger and in their primes; that’s the difference here and why everyone wants to, to quote Denny Green, “crown they ass.” But let’s pump the breaks. The Heat have no money to invest elsewhere. They have no quality point guard and no depth. Let’s imagine that the Heat run into the Lakers in the finals next season. Personally, I take Gasol over Bosh, who has played 11 playoff games in seven years and never won a playoff series, and I think Kobe and Lebron cancel each other out. The Lakers would have no one left to equal Wade on their own, BUT a cast of five or six decent role players, all giving Gasol and Kobe rest while El Tres Grande can’t afford to come out? The Celtics were in a position to win because of the new big three, but they were the best team in 2008 because of guys like James Posey, Eddie House, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, and P.J. Brown. I don’t see how Miami could possibly fill out their roster with quality unless their three stars take less money (not likely, isn’t that what a large part of this was about?) One last thought on the Heat: LeBron was asked how he planned on sharing the spotlight in Miami and responded, “For me, it’s about everyone having their own spotlight and doing what’s best for the team.” What?

And then there is the poor Cavs. Jesus. “It’s not about leaving Cleveland…” is the equivalent of “It’s not you, it’s me.” They’re going to go from back-to-back top seeds in the East to out of competition for the next decade. Yes, it will be that drastic. Frankly, I think the Cavs should be shipped to Seattle. Seriously. Seattle should’ve never lost its team in the first place, they have a good fan base, and the city of Cleveland really just needs to be single for awhile and focus on itself. Five years from now, we’ll give them the Hornets or something. By the way, who is their best player now? The ghost of Antawn Jamison? Mo Williams? (Shuddering.)

9:49 - ESPN shows a burning LeBron jersey on a street in Cleveland. His response: “I can’t get involved in that.” No one has burned their home this badly since David Koresh.

Twenty-four hours ago, we thought the Knicks were going to obtain the services of the King, and being a Celtics fan, I said, “pretty please.” With LeBron and Amare, the Knicks become a 50-win team, fourth or fifth seed because there is again, no point guard, and Amare doesn’t play defense or rebound well for his size. Now with just Amare and no LeBron? We also just found out David Lee was signed and traded to Golden State, not for Monta Ellis as had been reported, but high upside risk Anthony Randolph and a couple of role players. I’m saying an eight seed and prompt first round exit. Sadly, the remaining Knick fans in the room are applauding that idea happily. I also predict that by the All-Star Break, Amare will be deeply regret underrating spending his entire career playing with Jason Kidd and Steve Nash and will be putting in calls to Tony Parker, Carmelo, and Chris Paul, pleading with them to join him on his 45-37 team.

The Eastern Conference as a whole has fluctuated a bit. The Cavs are annihilated from contention, and the 2001 All-NBA team…I mean, 2010 Boston Celtics and Orlando should still be among the elite contenders for a title. Whether the Celtics window just closed or has a year to go remains to be seen, but they are one DeJuan Blair away from having the All-Bad Knees team after signing Jermaine O’Neal, who, somehow, I think the Heat will miss. The Heat become a top three team unquestionably and where they fit among those other two teams depends on who else dons a Heat jersey this winter. The Bulls, Bucks, and Hawks are decent, but a definite level below the previous three teams. The biggest loser besides the Cavs (and new coach with an empty cupboard Byron Scott)? The Nets, who actually have a foursome of promising youngsters in Derrick Favors, Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, and Terence Williams, tons of spending cash, a rich new owner, future Brooklyn arena, and currently nothing to show for it. The worst thing they could do, however, is take that money and go hand out bad contracts to the leftover free agents still grubbing for fat deals.

The other big winners? Jarvis Varnardo, Da’Sean Butler, Dexter Pitman, and Latavious Williams. Not only did these second-round picks luck out by getting drafted, but they got drafted by a team that is a legit finals contender, AND has at least eight holes to fill in their lineup on the cheap. Williams spent last winter playing in the freakin’ D league after skipping college. Talk about lucking out.

Out west, I’d urge people not to overlook Lee going to the Warriors, where Randolph never got a legitimate chance to show his mettle. Lee’s a great scorer and rebounder, but his weakness is defense, and he just went to the one team in the NBA that doesn’t care whether you play defense or not. Look around the conference—Phoenix just got a lot weaker without Amare in the post, Dallas kept Dirk but overpayed Brendan Haywood (shades of Erick Dampier—some people never learn) and Utah lost Carlos Boozer. The West should be in flux too after free agency finishes up and may actually be weaker than the East for the first time in over a decade.

Which brings me to my last point: A bold prediction. Jon Barry predicted two NBA titles for the Heat over the next five years. Michael Wilbon went three in four years. Me? I think Kevin Durant wins more rings over the next decade than this current Heat squad. Under the radar this week (the way it should be), the defending NBA scoring champ and 22-year-old wunderkind Durant signed a five-year extension to stay with Oklahoma City, a rising team that has surrounded Durant with young talent and smart management/coaching. As a player, one-on-one, Durant is not better than LeBron, but in regard to intangibles and how he goes about being a part of a team, I’d much prefer Durant over the next five years than LeBron. He pushed a top seeded Laker team to six games despite being outgunned by a superior squad, has the work ethic and developing game to continue growing as an elite player, and contrary to popular belief, he’s not just a scorer: this past season, there were dramatic spikes in his rebound, steal, block, and assist numbers. At only 22, those should continue to trend upwards. So you heard it here first: OKC is where the future of the NBA is at.

Okay, so maybe that wasn’t so brief. But on a night where everything has changed, it’s not so bad to simmer and dwell on the shifting battle lines of the NBA.

Optimism Reigns or Rain on Optimism?

Who is going to prolong Boston’s run of success?
Ahh, summer. If you’re not a baseball fan, it can be the slowest time of the year, the few month period where baseball is the only sport going on until NFL training camps convene and the season begins at the end of August. With the drafts now completed for the NBA and NHL, it is a time where fans who enjoy having three or four of their teams competing at the same time are forced to dwell on what could’ve been this past year and be optimistic about what is to come.

Boston fans still smarting from a Game 7 loss at the hands of the Lakers really have nothing to complain about. From 2001 to 2008, the city underwent an unprecedented run of success not just for Boston, but any sports city. We won six titles in eight finals appearances across three different teams. The Red Sox broke an 86-year string of disappointment only to repeat three years later, the Celtics won their first title since 1986, and the Patriots dynasty won the franchise’s first three Super Bowl titles. In the past decade, Boston teams have 25 combined playoff appearances, dominating other four-sport, four-team cities such as Phoenix/Arizona (13), Atlanta (13), and DC (10). Toronto has 14 and I even gave them the six postseason appearances of the Toronto Argonauts in the CFL.

These things go in cycles, of course. The nineties were a relatively down time in Boston sports with only the Bruins being a consistent playoff contender and never reaching the Stanley Cup. With the Celtics lost title, the Bruins historically embarrassing second round exit to the Flyers after being up three games to none, and the Patriots losing their first home playoff game of the Belichick/Brady era, there are ominous signs of lean years approaching. Both the Celtics and Patriots are led by aging veterans and the Bruins are starting to have the stench of perennial underachievers.

That being said, we still have a lot going for us, including four bonafide playoff teams, and as I said, ‘tis the off-season when optimism can reign supreme. The question is this: Whom am I most optimistic about for when the leaves turn orange and baseball goes into hibernation?

The case for the Patriots
First and foremost, we still have Brady and we still have Belichick. We also still have the veteran offensive line led by Logan Mankins, who may be the best interior lineman in the NFL, and rising tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Meriweather are Pro Bowl caliber defenders. Randy Moss is still “straight cash, homey” and the Patriots have gotten a much needed infusion of youth in the past two drafts that should hopefully start to pay dividends this season. Specifically, I’m excited about cornerback Darius Butler and rookie linebacker Brandon Spikes, who’s got the leadership and instincts reminiscent of former Pats stud Mike Vrabel.

The case against the Patriots
There have been reports that Tom Brady is no longer seeing eye to eye with the coaching staff and other veterans, causing fans to worry if he’s gone too “Hollywood” on us. Mankins has requested a trade (never a good sign), and you have to wonder when that offensive line will go from being “veteran” to “old.” We have no idea what, if anything, we’ll get from Wes Welker, and the options to replace him are the gritty but limited Julian Edelman, second-year man Brandon Tate, rookie deep threat Taylor Price, and Torry Holt, who is entering the “Babe Ruth with the Braves” portion of his career. The scheduling doesn’t do us any favors with non-division games against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Minnesota, San Diego, and Baltimore. Perhaps the biggest concern of all isn’t anything to do with the Patriots themselves, but the fact that the Jets and Dolphins have continued to get significantly better; they have better people in their front offices now than in the past, and have been huge players in the free agency market, with the Jets acquiring Antonio Cromartie, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Santonio Holmes, and the Fins picking up Karlos Dansby and Brandon Marshall. The Patriots could possibly go 10-6 again and not make the playoffs.

The case for the Bruins
Seguin! Seguin! Seguin! Thanks to the inept Maple Leafs trading two high first-round picks in successive years to the B’s for Phil Kessel, the Bruins drafted forward Tyler Seguin Friday night, one of two players in the draft to be considered star caliber. The Globe’s pre-draft coverage of Seguin detailed how following a playoff loss to number one overall pick Taylor Hall and a superior Windsor team, Seguin went into seclusion, working out and training with intense competitive fervor for sometimes ten hours a day leading up to the draft. Kid’s got moxie. The Bruins’ off-season will also look to be the most animated of the three teams; they’ve already traded playoff scapegoat Dennis Wideman, resigned hard-nosed young defender Johnny Boychuk, and acquired talented scorer Nathan Horton. Seguin’s arrival gives them a back log at center, but the kid can play some wing and the Bruins have promised more moves are on the horizon.

The case against the Bruins
How do you bounce back after coughing up a 3-0 lead in a Game 7 of a series you once led three games to none? The second round exit was a stain on the franchise and nearly wiped out the memory of the gutsy first round upset over Ryan Miller and the Sabres. In fact, it was probably the worst playoff loss after being up 3-0 since this infamous game. Scoring was the chief concern this year, and despite the talent down the middle, there is no promise that the Bruins will get enough from the wings to change that. Mark Recchi, the veteran leader, is a free agent-to-be, and there is concern about the sizeable contract of now backup goaltender Tim Thomas. At what point do we start calling former top sixteen picks Zach Hamill and Joe Colbourne busts?

The case for the Celtics
Out of the three, they’re coming off the most successful previous season, and the heart and soul of the team, Paul Pierce, should have a few good years left. Despite an erratic and sometimes downright puzzling finals, Rajon Rondo has established himself as one of the top five point guards in the league, and is locked up for the next five years. Rasheed Wallace, we hardly knew ye: the NBA career technical foul leader’s pending retirement, paired with some shrewd contract restructuring with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, could leave the Celtics enough money to pursue a second-tier big man, the likes of a Carlos Boozer, as well as set them up to have Pierce, Allen, and Garnett’s contracts all expire at the same time. Celtics fans will love rookie Avery Bradley—he fits the Celtics mold of an athletic, stud defender who should develop an offensive game and give Rondo (fourth in the NBA in minutes last season) and Allen (if he returns) a breather off the bench. It was only a year ago that Bradley was ranked ahead of top overall pick John Wall by ESPN scouts.

The case against the Celtics
Another year goes by, another hundred games of wear and tear on Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. I’d ask at what point the age starts to take its toll, but I think we already saw it this past season. The Celtics should still be good enough to be a top four team in the East, but their window of being a legitimate title contender may have just ended at the Staples Center last Thursday. Also, what happens with Doc Rivers? I have a feeling he’s going to leave, and it’s not easy to find quality NBA coaches. One thing that the Celtics have no control over is what the rest of the league will look like. LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, David Lee, Joe Johnson…all available and possibly on the move. Personally, I think James is out of Cleveland, which will probably immediately drop them out of playoff contention. Orlando will certainly be around, and if talks to acquire Chris Paul go anywhere, they will be downright scary. But what if James joins Wade in Miami? What if he takes someone like Amare with him to Chicago to team with Derrick Rose? If he joins Jay-Z with the Nets, they go from a 12-win team to a suddenly intriguing squad with a scoring point guard in Devin Harris, two young big men with high ceilings in Brook Lopez and rookie Derrick Favors, and potentially solid role players in Terence Williams, Courtney Lee, and Yi Jianlian. Whatever happens, next season’s Eastern Conference should have a completely different look to it, and where the C’s fit in will largely depend on how they replenish themselves with youthful talent and how starting center and resident banger Kendrick Perkins comes back from knee surgery.

Ideally, I’d like to see all three teams at least continue to make the playoffs, and in truth, that’s what I expect of each. But the law of averages tells us that disappointment will eventually rear its ugly head and one or more of these teams will go through another rough stretch. So whom am I most optimistic about?

I promised myself when the Bruins were eliminated that I wouldn’t just go back to them, that they had to earn my trust back, like a friend who had lied to me. Their Game 7 loss made me want to reenact the shower and crying scene from Ace Ventura. However, I trust in Coach Claude Julien and I trust in General Manager Peter Chiarelli. I like the guys they’ve built this team around, and defensive stalwart Zdeno Chara is still in his prime. Injuries and inconsistency hurt the team this year and you got the sense that they never were operating on all cylinders.

I believe in the moves they’ve made so far, and the moves they’re going to make. I believe in Tyler Seguin. I believe in goalie Tuukka Rask. I believe that over the next few years, I will see the Bruins in their first Stanley Cup since 1990. I believe in the B’s.

*Photo of Tom Brady courtesy of Keith Allison via Creative Commons License
**Photo of Tuukka Rask courtesy of 4rilla via Creative Commons License

Offseason Trade Report, or What is Arizona doing?

The winter meetings are over. As usual, there were plenty of fanfare and rumors, but precious few signings or trades. But let’s take a look at what happened, and, of course, provide some snarky analysis.

The Big Trade: Curtis Granderson to Yankees; Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, and Austin Jackson to the Tigers; Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks:

Usually teams do three-way trades only because a two-way one wouldn’t work. For example, if the two teams don’t have tradeable assets that work for the other. In this case, I’m not sure what’s up, specifically from the Diamondbacks’ perspective. Arizona traded a potential star pitcher in Scherzer, who is under team control for 5 years, as well as a promising reliever for two starters, one of whom may have had a career year (and tailed off badly in the second half) and another who just isn’t very good. Meanwhile, the Tigers sell high on Edwin Jackson and free up salary (please give this money to Verlander) while getting a better starter going forward, two good relievers, and a good outfield prospect. The Yankees get a centerfielder who will MASH in their stadium, even though he needs to sit against most lefties. In an unrelated point, Mike Cameron hits lefthanders well, plays all three outfield slots, and is a free agent as of this writing. Hmm…

Other Notable Trades:
Kelly Shoppach to Rays for a PTBNL:

This one flew under my radar when it happened. Shoppach had an off year in 2009, but is only 30 years old and hasn’t had a particular high workload because the Indians had a guy named Victor Martinez around for a while. Given that Dioner Navarro was one of the worst hitters in the Rays lineup (no matter how much praise Buck Martinez gave him), Shoppach is definitely a player worth taking a chance on. One wonders why the Red Sox and Yankees passed Shoppach up.

Kevin Millwood and money to Orioles for Chris Ray and Benjamin Snyder:

Millwood isn’t particularly good, but he will keep the ball out of Jason Berken and David Hernandez’s hands. If Jeremy Guthrie regains his form and Brian Matusz takes a step forward, the Orioles could actually have an alright team.

Signings:
The okay:
Chone Figgins to Mariners (4 yrs / $36 mil). Rich Harden to Rangers (1 yr / $7 mil). Marco Scutaro to Red Sox (2 yrs / $12.5 mil). Jack Wilson re-signs with Mariners (2 yrs / $10 mil). J. J. Putz to White Sox (1 yr / $3 mil).

So far, I don’t love any free agent signings, but that is mainly because the best players have yet to sign. Figgins is a good player, but four years is probably one year too many. Still, the Mariners probably make up for losing Beltre with this deal and gain some versatility if Matt Tuiasosopo turns out to be an option at third base. Scutaro temporarily solves the Red Sox’s shortstop problem, at least defensively, and if he keeps some of his increased batting eye he will be a plus offensively—people forget that the average AL shortstop had just a .719 OPS last year. Harden and Putz provide a great upside on one-year deals, though they are both big injury risks.

The bad:
Placido Polanco to Phillies (3 yrs / $18 mil). Brad Penny to Cardinals (1 yr / $7.5 mil). Randy Wolf to Brewers (3 yrs / 29 mil).

None of these deals are terrible, but they are all for way too much money, and in Polanco’s case the plan of moving him to third base makes little sense. Penny and Wolf might do okay in AAAA the National League, but these contracts are way too big.

The ugly:
Jason Kendall to the Royals (2 yrs / $4 mil). Ivan Rodriguez to Natinals (2 yrs / $6 mil). LaTroy Hawkins to Brewers (2 yrs / $7.5 mil). Brandon Lyon to Astros (3 yrs / $15 mil).

What are these teams thinking? Both catchers can’t hit anymore, and both relievers are just about average. I mean, three years for Lyon? Holy crap.

Finally, there was this strange sequence of events:
Braves sign Billy Wagner to a $6.75 million deal with a 2011 option that becomes guaranteed if he appears in 50 games. In doing so, they lose their first-round pick, #20 overall. Then they sign Takashi Saito to a $3.2 million deal. Later, they offer Rafael Soriano arbitration. To their surprise, he accepts. They then have to scramble to fit him on the 40-man roster and designate Ryan Church for assignment to make room. Days later, Soriano is traded to the Rays since the Braves don’t want to pay the ~$6 million he’s likely to earn in arbitration (after they gave up that much money and a first-round pick for Wagner). Net result for the Braves: Gave up two young injury-risk relievers and a first-round pick for two old injury-risk relievers, spent a bunch of money, and lost a decent fourth outfielder for nothing.

Of course, the big names are all still out there in Holliday, Beltre, and Lackey. It will be interesting to see what happens, and I’ll be sure to update you with my thoughts.

Yankees Look Toward Free Agency, Plan to Sign All Available

NEW YORK — After winning their first World Series since 2000 and setting the baseball world back in its rightful order, the Yankees and GM Brian Cashman are looking to next year. Free agency opened a few days ago, and the Yankees have work to do.

One hundred and seventy-one players filed for free agency this year, and the Yankees hope to fill out their roster — the Major League 25-man roster along with the Yankees’ minor and Dominican League affiliates’ — by signing them all.

Three members of the World Series Champions are among that list, including True Yankee Andy Pettitte, World Series Champion and MVP of the Free World from East to West Hideki Matsui, and Johnny Damon, who is such a great Yankee that he hit 17 of his 24 home runs last year at home, where the ghosts of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Scott Brosius propelled his pop flies into the right-field porch.

“I’ll talk to our guys first, and sign them, and after I have my conversations with our guys then I’ll be full-blown into the marketplace,” said Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, as he attended Monday night’s premiere of this year’s World Series film, titled The World As It Should Be: Champions Again. “I’m trying to be very careful and respectful to our players first and try to make sure they’re aware of where they are in the process, and that they will be paid more money here than they could get anywhere else, even if they end up sitting in AAA all year.”

Cashman has finished his scouting meetings and is discussing his limitless budget with the Steinbrenner family. While not mentioning anyone specifically, manager Joe Girardi gave hints that he’d like to sign every available player, just to make sure no other teams could improve this off-season. He implied that top free-agent pitcher John Lackey would be someone he’d pursue, to join fellow pitchers C. C. Sabathia and A. J. Burnett, but noted that “it really didn’t matter” as they were planning to also sign Randy Wolf, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer, John Garland, Braden Looper, and Joel Pineiro.

In a shocking turn of events, Omar Vizquel is believed to be signing the first deal of the free agency period to play shortstop for the Chicago White Sox. The rationale for this development becomes clearer given the news that Derek Jeter felt threatened by the 43-year-old and the report that the Yankees’ captain complained about Vizquel to Girardi in private.