World Series Preview

Welcome to my World Series preview. Since the Red Sox missed the playoffs for the first time in a few years I’ve had the chance to watch the playoffs as a slightly dispassionate fan; that is, I didn’t have a horse in the race. While I was rooting against the Yankees, I am far from a Rangers fan, and while Tim Lincecum is one of my favorite non-Red Sox players, and the Giants have a place in my heart, it’s tough to get excited about a team relying on Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell as their best hitters. So let’s get into the meat here.

I already covered the Rangers in my previous post, but something I’d like to point out is that their bullpen, which is being referred to as a weakness given its collapse in game one against NY, has actually been a strength so far. Going forward, it should be expected to perform even better in the World Series than it has previously in the playoffs. Here’s the postseason numbers:
v. TBR: 13 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 16 H, 5 BB, 15 K
v. NYY: 16 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 12 BB, 15 K
Total postseason: 3.64 ERA, 7.89 H/9, 5.16 BB/9, 9.1 K/9.

Hey, that’s pretty good. But it’s not as good as the regular season performance from the top of the pen (Feliz, Oliver, O’Day, and Ogando all had ERAs of 2.73 or lower, with good peripherals to support them). And it’s even better when you consider that four of those runs came from Darren Oliver, who is likely to fall out of favor as he’s not looked good, and three more of the runs came during Game 1 against New York, a game that was grossly mismanaged by Ron Washington.

What else do the Rangers have? Well, Josh Hamilton looks like he’s relatively healthy, which is a boon for Texas. The rest of the team is hitting too, with the notable exception of Vlad Guererro. And they have Cliff Lee, which makes up for their disadvantage at the back end of the rotation (Tommy Hunter having turned in an awful performance in Game 4). They made some glaring defensive mistakes against New York, but during the regular season were fifth in defensive efficiency, so I would expect their defense to be solid overall.

As for the Giants, they don’t have nearly the amount of offensive firepower that the Rangers have. Cody Ross is absolutely on fire, but no one else on the team had better than a .760 OPS in the Phillies series, and they only pushed across 19 runs in the six games. When you remove the Joe Blanton-started game, it’s even worse—just 13 runs in five games, or 2.6 per game. That won’t cut it against the Rangers, and while Lincecum and Cain are very good, the Rangers aren’t as lefty-heavy as the Phillies and it’s unlikely they’ll be stifled by Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner.

Nor is their bullpen particularly impressive. Brian Wilson is excellent, but Ramon Ramirez may have lost whatever was carrying him down the stretch, and while Javier Lopez pitched well, it’s tough to rely on him. Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla are good, but the bullpen isn’t quite a strength for San Francisco.

But the Giants have one of the best pitching rotations in the league. Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez are all capable of having no-hit stuff every night, and are very reliable. Madison Bumgarner is the best #4 starter in these playoffs, and I was surprised he was removed so quickly in his Game 4 start.

What I think this series will come down to are the two games that Cliff Lee starts. If the Giants can win one of them, whether by a fluke or by Lincecum pitching even better than Lee, then they are the favorite to win the series. But if Lee continues his seeming untouchability, it’s tough to pick against the Rangers, given their offensive and bullpen superiority. Since Lee hasn’t really shown anything in his postseason career that suggests he is vulnerable, I have to pick Texas in this one.

Rangers in 6, as Lee outduels Lincecum twice and then wins Game 6 in extra innings as their bullpen outperforms the Giants’.