October Madness II

Last fall, I made two sets of predictions: first I tried to guess every matchup for the FBS bowl season. That went very poorly. Then I tried to predict the NCAA Men’s Tournament field in October. This went a little bit better, as I predicted 32 of the 65 teams in the field, and even nailed a handful of seeds exactly. While the football experiment went so badly that I decided not to punish you all with a repeat performance, I had fun picking the tournament field, and this year 68 teams get to go instead of 65 (thankfully not 96). My goal this year: 40 teams, 10 exact seeds. We’ll call it the 40-10 Challenge.

I’ve also decided, as a means to help aid my quest for the 40-10, that I will forgo tossing my personal affections into my picks. So Penn State, Hofstra, and Boston College will all not be found below. Sorry, locals; it hurts me too.

East Regional—Newark, NJ1.

Michigan State: My top overall seed. Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers, Korie Lucious…Tom Izzo made a wise choice returning to East Lansing; there’s more talent there than with the Cavs.

16.Sam Houston State vs. Quinnipiac: Two teams that almost qualified last year get rewarded with a battle to face Izzo’s Spartans.

9. San Diego State: Led by Kawhi Leonard, the Aztecs will have one of the country’s most experienced and dangerous front courts.

8. Maryland: The Terrapins are a bit of an unknown after losing three seniors that averaged double digits scoring, including emotional leader Greivis Vasquez, but Sean Mosley is a leader and Jordan Williams could be the Terps’ next star.

5. Texas: Rick Barnes lost three starters from last year’s underachieving squad, but stellar freshman Tristan Thompson should help soften the blow.

12. Play-in Game! Washington State vs. Indiana: The Cougars could be fighting for the Pac-10’s dignity as a major conference while Tom Crean could be on the verge of making the Hoosiers a March mainstay once more.

13. Akron: Zeke Marshall should develop in the middle and Brett McKnight provides veteran leadership to the MAC champs.

4. Syracuse: No Big East team lost more than the Orange, but with Rick Jackson, Kris Joseph, and Scoop Jardine still in the mix, they’ll find themselves near the top of the conference again. Look out for the latest Melo in upstate New York, freshman center Fab Melo.

3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes lose Evan Turner, but return everyone else, and add an awesome freshman class led by Jared Sullinger.

14. Western Kentucky: One of the most consistently dangerous mid-major programs, the Hilltoppers could make early noise this year in the Puerto Rico tip-off with UNC and Minnesota as possible opponents.

11. Seton Hall: I was wrong on the Pirates last year; so help me god, I won’t be wrong again. New coach Kevin Willard, former Louisville assistant under Pitino, has one of the best offensive teams in the country, and a wide open Big East.

6. Virginia Tech: The Hokies lost nobody from last year’s 25-9 squad and are led by phenomenal talent Malcolm Delaney. They shouldn’t be left sweating on Selections Sunday again.

7. Butler: Last year’s Final Four darlings shouldn’t fall too far back, but Gordan Heyward’s early escape to the NBA does hurt a bit. Detroit has the talent to challenge in the Horizon, but nobody in conference can match their depth.

10. Clemson: The Tigers lost their coach (Oliver Purnell) and star (Trevor Booker), but have everyone else back, including seniors Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant.

15. Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers just missed out on a trip to the NCAAs last year, but a pair of former Gamecocks, Chad Gray and Mike Holmes, should be more than enough to get them there this year.

2. Kansas State: Frank Martin is developing the Wildcats into a perennial powerhouse, and Jacob Pullen should compete for Big 12 Player of the Year.

Southeast Regional —New Orleans, LA1.

Duke: The defending national champs could be better. Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith have a lot of young talent behind them.

16. Lehigh vs. Jackson State: Jackson State is consistently the class of the SWAC, while Lehigh may have supplanted Holy Cross and Bucknell in the Patriot League pecking order.

9. Tennessee: The Vols lost some talent up front and coach Bruce Pearl has his own issues, but freshman Tobias Harris is dynamite.

8. Texas A&M: Most prognosticators believe the Aggies lost too much to make it back to NCAAs, but Mark Turgeon is great at getting production out of unknown talent. Sophomore Khris Middleton could be ready to make the leap.

5. Minnesota: Tubby Smith has raised the level of talent coming onto campus, but this team will go as far as seniors Blake Hoffarber and Al Nolen can lead it.

12. UConn: I’d like to believe coach Jim Calhoun can stymie the Huskies recent inconsistency, but replacing Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson is asking a lot from an NIT team. Forward Roscoe Smith should help.

13. Fairfield: Wouldn’t a Fairfield-UConn second-round upset matchup be fun? The Battle for the Nutmeg State is on! Derek Needham is one of the country’s best sophomores.

4. Mississippi State: I was disgruntled when the Bulldogs were passed over for fellow mediocre SEC-mates Florida. With Renardo Sidney finally on board, the Bulldogs shouldn’t miss again. If Dee Bost somehow wins his NCAA appeal, their cause will be greatly aided.

3. Illinois: Regardless of where they finish in the Big Ten, the Fighting Illini has the right combination of experience, versatility, and toughness to be dangerous in March, led by senior Demetrius McCamey.

14. Oakland: Last year, I claimed that Tulsa’s Jerome Jordan would be the unknown big man that flourished into a potential NBA lottery selection. Well, I was wrong. But Golden Grizzly center Keith Benson (17.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 3.3 BPG) is the real deal. I won’t be wrong again.

11. BYU: The Cougars, now preparing to make an interesting move to the West Coast Conference, AKA Gonzaga’s House, should return to the tourney, led by potential All-American Jimmer Fredette.

6. Baylor: While LaceDarius Dunn is the star, the Bears will only go as far as freshman big man Perry Jones can take them (and it could be quite far).

7. Florida State: The return of Chris Singleton and Michael Snaer means the Seminoles will be solid again, but Solomon Alabi’s departure will lower their ceiling to the second round.

10. Vanderbilt: The Commodores have the unenviable task of replacing leading scorer Jermaine Beal and A.J. Ogilvy, one of the top big men in the SEC, but Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins should be enough to get them back to the tourney.

15. Boston University: The Terriers are the best offensive team in the America East and senior John Holland is a talent, but you may want to look elsewhere for your first-round upset—the America East has only won three NCAA tournament games ever.

2. Pittsburgh: In what was supposed to be a down year for Pitt, Ashton Gibbs developed into a top flight point guard and led Pitt to a three seed. A wild card for the Panthers could be raw redshirt freshman Talib Zanna.

Southwest Regional—San Antonio, TX

1. Villanova: Jay Wright’s squad lost Scottie Reynolds, true, but what they bring back is a veteran squad led by Corey Fisher, Antonio Pena, and Corey Stokes that should be the class of the Big East. Generally, the Big East champs are not denied a top seed.

16. Lipscomb: Center Adnan Hodzic has scored double figures in 57 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation. In the Atlantic Sun, it is the year of the Bison.

9. Creighton: Granted they’re both only 6’9”, but in the MVC, Kenny Lawson and transfer Greg Echinique qualify as twin giants and create matchup problems for the Blue Jays’ opponents. Antoine Young and Darryl Ashford provide support on the perimeter.

8. UCLA: Even in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, 14-18 is never acceptable in Westwood. From those growing pains though, Malcolm Lee, Reeves Nelson, Tyler Honeycutt, and a deep recruiting class should find success this season in a still-watered down Pac-10.

5. NC State: Coach Sidney Lowe has an experienced point guard in Javier Gonzalez and a tough inside presence in Tracy Smith, but far more importantly, he has potential lottery pick freshman C.J. Leslie coming to Raleigh for at least one season.

12. Play-in Game! George Mason vs. Ole Miss: Remember us? The Patriots have faded since their Final Four run of 2006, finishing 17-15 last season, but led by Cam Long and Andre Cornelius, they have the talent to make it back to the dance, as CAA champ or as an at-large. The Rebels will have to overcome what feels like serial underachieving and the departure of Murphy Holloway and Terrico White, but few guards in the country are better in the last two minutes than Chris Warren.

13. Utah State: The Aggies are quietly becoming the class of the WAC, producing leader after leader—first DeMarre Carroll, then Jared Quayle, and now Tai Wesley.

4. Florida: The Gators are back. Though there is no Joakim Noah or Al Horford on this team, there is balance on Billy Donovan’s squad. Kenny Boynton, Vernon Macklin, Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus, and Erving Walker make it impossible for other teams to key in on just one or two guys.

3. UNC: The Heels struggled last season before winning the NIT, and then lost Ed Davis, Marcus Gilyard, and Deon Thompson, but consensus top 10 recruits Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock should help fill the void, and it’ll be interesting to see if John Henson can develop into the next dominant big man in Chapel Hill. If they can get by their season opener against Hofstra, they should be fine. (I knew I’d find a way to sneak the alma mater in.)

14. Wofford: The returning SoCon champs return the conference player of the year in Noah Dahlman and six of their other top eight scorers from last year’s squad. Besides, their name is fun to say.

11. Arizona: We’ve been here before. Plenty of talent, plenty of question marks. Will Jamelle Horne ever develop into a premier forward? What is Derrick Williams’s ceiling? Who will replace Nic Wise’s production? The Wildcats could be a year away from being a serious contender.

6. Gonzaga: The front court of Elias Harris and Robert Sacre will be tough to matchup with, and there is additional height to give them depth. I don’t expect the Zags to be upset by anyone in the conference tourney this time around.

7. Temple: Guard Juan Fernandez and Forward Lavoy Allen are the best inside-outside combo in the Atlantic-10, and the Owls should be plenty hungry after a premature first-round exit last spring.

10. Marquette: Buzz Williams lost his go-to guy in Lazar Heyward, but Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom should be able to pick up the slack. Freshman guard Vander Blue is one to watch; he’s coming in as a higher touted prospect than Dwayne Wade was when he arrived in Wisconsin.

15. UC Santa Barbara: The Gauchos return plenty of firepower from last year’s surprise Big West champs, but they’ll need to rebound better to fight off Long Beach State and Pacific.

2. Kentucky: Out: five NBA first rounders. In: Blazing PG Brandon Knight, powerful forward Terrence Jones, and potential star pivot Enes Kanter (if he’s cleared to play). Don’t overlook the addition of former Gator Eloy Vargas either.

West Regional—Anaheim, CA

1. Kansas: Don’t think for a moment that losing three stars will slow down the Jayhawks. The Morris brothers will maintain the post and freshman Josh Selby is a potential top 10 NBA pick next spring.

16. Morgan State: The Bears have dominated the MEAC over the past three years and bring back a nightly double-double threat in Kevin Thompson and last year’s conference Rookie of the Year DeWayne Jackson.

9. Alabama: Not quite on par with their football counterparts, but if the Tide can navigate the loss of guard Mikhail Torrance, they could make it back to the tourney. Arriving this year is a familiar name to most basketball fans: Kendall Durant, cousin of OKC Thunder demigod, Kevin.

8. Wisconsin: This is now Jon Leuer’s team, and it remains to be seen if he can be a go-to guy, but he’ll have help, and Bo Ryan rarely gets less than the best out of his teams.

5. Washington: Point Guard Isaiah Thomas shouldn’t be confused with the Hall of Famer whose name he shares, but he should be good enough to lead the Huskies to a Pac-10 title. The Huskies were hurt by Jones’s defection to Kentucky late in the signing period.

12. Old Dominion: No more Gerald Lee playing monolith-in-the-middle, but coach Blaine Taylor always has a tough team, and Frank Hassell and Ben Finney should be able to lead the Monarchs to a second straight dance ticket.

13. Murray State: Morehead State has the best player in the OVC in Kenneth Faried, but Murray State has the best team. An upset win over Vandy in last year’s first round, a school record 31 wins, and an almost completely intact returning cast—it’s high times for the Racers.

4. Georgetown: Greg Monroe’s last season in DC failed to live up to the hype, but one would be wise not to lower their expectations too far. Austin Freeman is one of the best shooters in the Big East, and Hollis Thompson could develop into a star in his second year for the Hoyas.

3. Memphis: A one-year absence from important March hoops should be enough for the Tigers. Josh Pastner brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country this fall, led by Jelan Kendrick and Joe Jackson, and with Wesley Witherspoon returning on the wing, Memphis will again be a force.

14. Montana: To make it back to the tourney, the Grizzlies will again have to get by preseason favorites Weber State, but nobody in the Big Sky can match Brian Qvale and Derek Selvig up front.

11. St. John’s: Woooo! Look who’s back! The Red Storm, at one time a March fixture, hasn’t been to the NCAAs since the days of Ron Artest. With nine seniors, lead by DJ Kennedy, this could be the year Steve Lavin brings St. John’s back to glory.

6. Xavier: Gone are Jordan Crawford and Jason Love, but Chris Mack brought in a great recruiting class. The development of C. Kenny Frease and Mark Lyons will primarily decide how far Xavier can go.

7. Missouri: Despite some recent success, the Tigers continue to hover just under the radar. With Kim English leading the way and Laurence Bowers and Marcus Denmon in tow, that could change this season. Watch for freshman Tony Mitchell as a breakout candidate if he’s declared eligible.

10. Louisville: The Cardinals lost their top three scorers and Coach Rick Pitino has his own issues, but if they can find someone to score, they maintain the athleticism and defense to remain dangerous.

15. Princeton: Unlike last year, the Ivy League should be wide open. In such cases, I like to roll with the team that plays the best defense, and the Tigers led Division I in defensive points per game last season.

2. Purdue: Last year, I picked them to go all the way, but a Robbie Hummel injury at the worst time stopped us from finding out just what could’ve been. With three All-American candidates, including a healthy Hummel, the Boilermakers will again be a threat to reach the Final Four.

Last Four Out: LSU, Wichita State, Saint Mary’s, Richmond
A couple extra NCAA tidbits to carry you into the season…
All-Not-Making-The-Tourney Team: G - Talor Battle / Penn State G - Kevin Anderson, Richmond / F - Trey Thompkins, Georgia / F - Kenneth Faried, Morehead State / F - Damian Saunders, Duquesne
Potential Bracket-Busting Mid-Majors: Virginia Commonwealth, Loyola Marymount, Detroit, Ohio, Missouri State
Top 5 Impact Transfers: Jio Fontan, Fordham to USC / Mike Holmes, South Carolina to Coastal Carolina / Roburt Sallie, Memphis to Louisville / Eniel Polynice, Ole Miss to Seton Hall / Seth Curry, Liberty to Duke
Top 15 NBA Prospects in NCAA this year (in no particular order): Jared Sullinger: F, Ohio State, Fr.Kyrie Irving: G, Duke, Fr.Derrick Williams: F, Arizona, Soph.C.J. Leslie: F, NC State, Fr.Kenneth Faried: F, Morehead State, Sr.Josh Selby: G, Kansas, Fr.Harrison Barnes: F, UNC, Fr.Aaric Murray: C, LaSalle, Soph.Jordan Hamilton: F, Texas, Soph.Perry Jones: F, Baylor, Fr.Kyle Singler: F, Duke, Jr.John Henson: F, UNC, Soph.Mason Plumlee: F, Duke, Soph.Brandon Knight: G, Kentucky, Fr.Marcus Morris: F, Kansas, Jr.
Rank the Conferences1. Big Ten—Only Iowa doesn’t have a legit chance of making the tourney. 2. ACC—Not as big as the Big East, but tougher top to bottom. 3. Big East—Should still have eight or nine tough teams, but not as strong up top as some past years. 4. SEC—Florida’s revival and Kentucky’s reloading helps carry the SEC near the top. 5. Big 12—Texas A&M and Oklahoma State could take a step back; Oklahoma continues to fall. 6. Pac-10—Considered dropping them behind the A10. Need Arizona and UCLA to rebuild. 7. Atlantic 10—Sent more teams to the tourney than the Pac-10 last year, and still has good depth, though Xavier taking a step back could mean no top flight squad this year. 8. Mountain West—BYU and Utah’s departure will hurt. 9. Conference USA—Memphis carries an otherwise mediocre conference. 10. Missouri Valley—Five years ago, they looked ready to ascend to A10 heights, but they continue to tread water. 11. West Coast—Gonzaga will see competition from Saint Mary’s and Loyola Marymount. 12. Colonial—Whether it’s George Mason’s Final Four run, VCU’s upset of Duke in 2007, or Old Dominion’s win over Notre Dame last year, this competitive conference can hang with anyone in March. 13. MAC—The Ohio three (Akron, Kent State, Ohio U) currently take turns duking it out at the top. 14. WAC—Nevada’s early NBA departures lowers their chances as well as the WAC’s ranking. 15. Horizon—Butler’s the big name squad, but Detroit is on the rise, and UW-Milwaukee has a Sweet Sixteen run in their recent past under former coach Bruce Pearl. 16. MAAC—Fairfield and Siena will be good, the rest of the league, ehhhh. 17. Southern—Davidson’s recent success gives this league some street cred, but they need Wofford or Western Carolina to pull of some nice wins to carry the league now. 18. Sun Belt—Western Kentucky has sustained some success; Isaiah Thomas still has a lot of work to do at Florida International. 19. Ohio Valley—Murray State upset Vandy last year and Morehead State has a first-round NBA prospect in Kenneth Faried. 20. Big Sky—Weber State and Montana can be tough outs come March. 21. Ivy—Raised by Cornell’s Sweet Sixteen run last year; Penn and Princeton actually rank among the top 25 Division I programs in NCAA Tourney appearances. 22. Summit—Oakland has gone from new Division I team to this league’s premier squad in less than a decade. 23. Big West—Has 14 tournament victories to its credit as a league. 24. Big South—Someone needs to step up to take Winthrop’s place as challenger to the big boys. 25. Atlantic Sun—Belmont gave Duke a scare a couple years back as a 15; new additions North Florida and South Carolina-Upstate have some work to do. 26. America East—Syracuse folks still cringe at the name of Vermont’s Taylor Coppenrath. 27. Patriot—Bucknell and Holy Cross both have nice legacies. 28. Southland—12 teams, seven total NCAA wins. 29. SWAC—Too bad Jerry Rice (Mississippi Valley State) and Steve McNair (Alcorn State) don’t count here. 30. Northeast—Not much to brag about, but at least Quinnipiac has started to build a nice program in a short amount of time. 31. MEAC—16th seeds abound; three total NCAA wins. 32. Great West—Division I’s newest conference doesn’t have an automatic NCAA bid.