Son of a Beach!

9:09 PM EST, Thursday, July 8, 2010…doesn’t it feel like all of our sports lives are about to change as we know them? LeBron announced where he will be playing basketball for the next five years or so. As much as I’ve been smearing him for setting up this media carnival and showcase for his ego, I have to admit, I didn’t change the channel. Like it or not, whether LeBron ever wins a ring, the NBA next season is going to look vastly different than it did in ‘09-‘10, and LeBron is the at the center of this universe in flux. It fits in with the idea of LeBron the Global (Universal?) Icon, who over the past couple years seems much more determined perhaps than LeBron the player.

Granted, this is unfair: I’m torn on how to feel about LeBron’s considering fleeing the Cavs to get help to win his rings elsewhere. People are continuously saying “Jordan wouldn’t do that; Kobe wouldn’t do that,” but Jordan a) was unquestionably the best player who has ever lived and b) played in one of the worst eras talent-wise the NBA has seen. When Bird and Magic’s generation faded, teams could get by on one superstar being surrounded by marginal players, but even Jordan had Pippen, often overlooked and yet a member of the NBA’s silver anniversary team in his own right. Kobe almost left the Lakers after missing the playoffs, and the same people who are now chastising LeBron were the ones who were irate when the Lakers stole Pau Gasol from Memphis. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are playing during an extremely competitive time in the NBA. It takes six, seven, eight guys to win a title, not three.

Anyway, here is a key to what we’re learning about LeBron based on his decision:
Cleveland - Is loyal like a dog with a sick owner; admirable, but a poor professional decision.
Miami - He wants to win without the pressure of being “the man.”
Chicago - He wants to win with the pressure of being “the man” (in Jordan’s shadow no less).
New York - He wants to be a global icon.
New Jersey - I don’t know. It’s kind of crazy, but it’s kind of not. The icon level is low in Jersey, but when they move to Brooklyn? I don’t even know what I would make of this, but it’s not going to happen unless he has beer goggles that make Travis Outlaw look like David Thompson.
LA Clippers - He hates winning, money, and his ACLs and wants them to be shattered instantly.

Here is a breakdown of my thoughts as his infomercial unfolded on what it means for him, for the Eastern Conference, for the NBA over the next decade, and for us as human beings.

9:27 - Still waiting. I would like to note that I had the same beard as LeBron my senior year of college, but I don’t hear anyone calling him Abe Lincoln.

9:28 - So it’s Miami…Pat Riley, Bosh, Wade….uh…Beasley (for now)….umm…Chalmers? This is what we suspected for the past 24 hours, but now that it’s final, let’s quickly break down what it means for everyone involved.

First and foremost, the Heat. They now have three all-stars and two superstars to go with a handful of second-round picks and not much money to fill out the squad. The Celtics won a title with three just-past-their-prime guys in Pierce, Garnett, and Ray Allen, so there is some precedent for this, despite what everyone in the media wants you to think. However, these three are all younger and in their primes; that’s the difference here and why everyone wants to, to quote Denny Green, “crown they ass.” But let’s pump the breaks. The Heat have no money to invest elsewhere. They have no quality point guard and no depth. Let’s imagine that the Heat run into the Lakers in the finals next season. Personally, I take Gasol over Bosh, who has played 11 playoff games in seven years and never won a playoff series, and I think Kobe and Lebron cancel each other out. The Lakers would have no one left to equal Wade on their own, BUT a cast of five or six decent role players, all giving Gasol and Kobe rest while El Tres Grande can’t afford to come out? The Celtics were in a position to win because of the new big three, but they were the best team in 2008 because of guys like James Posey, Eddie House, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, and P.J. Brown. I don’t see how Miami could possibly fill out their roster with quality unless their three stars take less money (not likely, isn’t that what a large part of this was about?) One last thought on the Heat: LeBron was asked how he planned on sharing the spotlight in Miami and responded, “For me, it’s about everyone having their own spotlight and doing what’s best for the team.” What?

And then there is the poor Cavs. Jesus. “It’s not about leaving Cleveland…” is the equivalent of “It’s not you, it’s me.” They’re going to go from back-to-back top seeds in the East to out of competition for the next decade. Yes, it will be that drastic. Frankly, I think the Cavs should be shipped to Seattle. Seriously. Seattle should’ve never lost its team in the first place, they have a good fan base, and the city of Cleveland really just needs to be single for awhile and focus on itself. Five years from now, we’ll give them the Hornets or something. By the way, who is their best player now? The ghost of Antawn Jamison? Mo Williams? (Shuddering.)

9:49 - ESPN shows a burning LeBron jersey on a street in Cleveland. His response: “I can’t get involved in that.” No one has burned their home this badly since David Koresh.

Twenty-four hours ago, we thought the Knicks were going to obtain the services of the King, and being a Celtics fan, I said, “pretty please.” With LeBron and Amare, the Knicks become a 50-win team, fourth or fifth seed because there is again, no point guard, and Amare doesn’t play defense or rebound well for his size. Now with just Amare and no LeBron? We also just found out David Lee was signed and traded to Golden State, not for Monta Ellis as had been reported, but high upside risk Anthony Randolph and a couple of role players. I’m saying an eight seed and prompt first round exit. Sadly, the remaining Knick fans in the room are applauding that idea happily. I also predict that by the All-Star Break, Amare will be deeply regret underrating spending his entire career playing with Jason Kidd and Steve Nash and will be putting in calls to Tony Parker, Carmelo, and Chris Paul, pleading with them to join him on his 45-37 team.

The Eastern Conference as a whole has fluctuated a bit. The Cavs are annihilated from contention, and the 2001 All-NBA team…I mean, 2010 Boston Celtics and Orlando should still be among the elite contenders for a title. Whether the Celtics window just closed or has a year to go remains to be seen, but they are one DeJuan Blair away from having the All-Bad Knees team after signing Jermaine O’Neal, who, somehow, I think the Heat will miss. The Heat become a top three team unquestionably and where they fit among those other two teams depends on who else dons a Heat jersey this winter. The Bulls, Bucks, and Hawks are decent, but a definite level below the previous three teams. The biggest loser besides the Cavs (and new coach with an empty cupboard Byron Scott)? The Nets, who actually have a foursome of promising youngsters in Derrick Favors, Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, and Terence Williams, tons of spending cash, a rich new owner, future Brooklyn arena, and currently nothing to show for it. The worst thing they could do, however, is take that money and go hand out bad contracts to the leftover free agents still grubbing for fat deals.

The other big winners? Jarvis Varnardo, Da’Sean Butler, Dexter Pitman, and Latavious Williams. Not only did these second-round picks luck out by getting drafted, but they got drafted by a team that is a legit finals contender, AND has at least eight holes to fill in their lineup on the cheap. Williams spent last winter playing in the freakin’ D league after skipping college. Talk about lucking out.

Out west, I’d urge people not to overlook Lee going to the Warriors, where Randolph never got a legitimate chance to show his mettle. Lee’s a great scorer and rebounder, but his weakness is defense, and he just went to the one team in the NBA that doesn’t care whether you play defense or not. Look around the conference—Phoenix just got a lot weaker without Amare in the post, Dallas kept Dirk but overpayed Brendan Haywood (shades of Erick Dampier—some people never learn) and Utah lost Carlos Boozer. The West should be in flux too after free agency finishes up and may actually be weaker than the East for the first time in over a decade.

Which brings me to my last point: A bold prediction. Jon Barry predicted two NBA titles for the Heat over the next five years. Michael Wilbon went three in four years. Me? I think Kevin Durant wins more rings over the next decade than this current Heat squad. Under the radar this week (the way it should be), the defending NBA scoring champ and 22-year-old wunderkind Durant signed a five-year extension to stay with Oklahoma City, a rising team that has surrounded Durant with young talent and smart management/coaching. As a player, one-on-one, Durant is not better than LeBron, but in regard to intangibles and how he goes about being a part of a team, I’d much prefer Durant over the next five years than LeBron. He pushed a top seeded Laker team to six games despite being outgunned by a superior squad, has the work ethic and developing game to continue growing as an elite player, and contrary to popular belief, he’s not just a scorer: this past season, there were dramatic spikes in his rebound, steal, block, and assist numbers. At only 22, those should continue to trend upwards. So you heard it here first: OKC is where the future of the NBA is at.

Okay, so maybe that wasn’t so brief. But on a night where everything has changed, it’s not so bad to simmer and dwell on the shifting battle lines of the NBA.