The Next Butler?

Monday night, I sat with my roommate watching Butler, a school of less than 5,000 students in Indianapolis, threaten Coach K. and the Duke Blue Devils, matching them shot for shot until ultimately coming up short. Many comparisons were made during the week between the Bulldogs and Hickory High from the movie “Hoosiers,” and it made sense. Butler, after all, comes from the Horizon League, meaning that while Duke played night in and night out against teams like UNC, Maryland, and Wake Forest, Butler was running past Wright State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and Youngstown State with minimal resistance. (Butler entered the title game having not lost since December.)

Although the media played it like Butler was an underdog that emerged from nowhere, this isn’t necessarily true. The Bulldogs were a five-seed and ranked in all preseason Top 25 polls. This was their fourth straight trip to the NCAAs and their third time reaching the Sweet Sixteen since 2003. Where Butler resides is in a new class with Gonzaga—media darlings that grow from underdogs in small conferences to legitimate tournament forces year in and year out. Both programs are at a point where they are expected to make the tourney each year, and that shouldn’t change any time soon. Andy Katz has Butler ranked #3 in his early 2010-11 poll and Gonzaga #18.
So are we seeing a new class of team, the juggernaut from the mid-major that competes year in and year out with the major conferences? There’s no reason not to think so. The question is who could potentially join them. Taking into account recent success, coach, recruiting pool, and league, here are a few teams that could be poised to join the Brothers Bulldog over the next few years.
Note: For our purposes, I’m not considering the MWC, WAC, or Atlantic 10, since those conferences regularly put multiple teams into the tournament.
Virginia Commonwealth
A logical place to first look for a team to join the mid-major juggernauts is the CAA. This year, Old Dominion represented the league well by upsetting Notre Dame in the first round before losing a tough game to Baylor in the NCAAs. It’s a deep league that also gave us George Mason’s Final Four run a few years back. VCU has regularly been near the top, making the tourney three times since 2004 and beating Duke in one of those trips. Touted young coach Anthony Grant left to take the Alabama job and was replaced by another up-and-comer in Shaka Smart, who led the Rams to a 27-9 record and CBI Championship this year. In fact, the team hasn’t had a losing record since ‘98-‘99. They have shown the ability to bring in high caliber talent, recently producing lottery selection Eric Maynor and currently possessing another potential lottery pick in power forward Larry Sanders. The Rams should again be near the top of the league next year, lead by Sanders and the next star in waiting, point guard Joey Rodriguez. There are a handful of CAA teams that could potentially take this mantel, but I think VCU is the best poised for long-term success.
Siena
More and more people are becoming familiar with the Saints, as they became a trendy pick to upset Purdue in the first round of this year’s tourney, as they did last time they were a 13-seed, beating Vanderbilt in ‘07-‘08. The Saints will graduate their two best players in Alex Franklin and Edwin Ubiles, but they seem to have outgrown the rest of the MAAC in recent years to become the perennial favorite, this year winning the regular season title by a Butler-esque four games. Coach Fran McCarthy has established a winning tradition in his five seasons in upstate New York, and with the addition next year of freshmen Melsahn Basabe and Trenity Burdine, he appears to reloading rather than rebuilding. Besides, don’t “Melsahn Basabe” and “Trenity Burdine” just sound like guys that would hit game-winning shots to upset a high-seeded team?
Creighton
Since the Missouri Valley Conference is one of the deeper, more talented mid-majors and one that’s had recent success in the NCAAs (Northern Iowa’s Sweet 16 run this year, Bradley’s Elite 8 run a couple years ago,) it would make sense that one of them could become a perennial contender. It would also make sense to select the most recent en vogue team, Northern Iowa, as that squad, in light of their huge upset of Kansas this year. But I think they’re losing too much after this year that’s not being replaced to sustain that kind of success. I see Creighton as the team from the MVC that could take a large step forward over the next few years. The Blue Jays have a few things going for them: they regularly draw a huge crowd, ranking 15th in average attendance in the country last year, so it’s a fun place to play. Their coach, Dana Altman, is one of the best in the business. This was his first season to not win 20 games (18-16) in over a decade. They also have recently produced NBA players in Kyle Korver and Anthony Tolliver. The Blue Jays were young this year, but will bring back leaders in Kenny Lawson and P’Allen Stinnett, and welcome in former blue chip prospect Greg Echinique, who will be eligible after transferring from Rutgers. Creighton made the tournament five straight years from ‘99-‘03, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to think they’ll return to that same level starting next year.
Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s garnered a lot of national attention this year with their second round upset of 2-seeded Villanova and subsequent Sweet 16 trip. In his ninth season, coach Randy Bennett has established a winning tradition, forcing his team to progressively raise its game to compete with conference rival Gonzaga, this year beating the Zags to win the WCC title. Though they’ll lose three talented seniors, including the face of the team in center Omar Samhan, the Gaels actually had a young squad this year with seven freshmen seeing playing time, led by Matthew Dellavedova (12.1 PPG). Saint Mary’s has the interesting recruiting factor of regularly pulling talent from not just the west coast, but Australia, with five players currently making the trip from down under. After finishing this season at #19 in the Coaches Poll, I see guard Mickey McConnell becoming a household name next spring and the Gaels making their third trip to the NCAAs in four seasons.