Atlanta Braves: Cox’s Last Hurrah

The Atlanta Braves have been a well-run organization for as long as I have been a baseball fan. Although they’ve only won one World Series in that time, they have been competitive all but a couple years under different GMs, pitching staffs, pitching coaches, closers, and core groups of players. The main constant during this time has been Bobby Cox. While the importance of managers is generally overrated, it’s probably fair to say that Cox deserves some credit for running the team for so long. As he will retire after this season, let’s take a look at Atlanta and see if the young team can provide a playoff run for Cox in his final season.

The Braves’ strength is their rotation. Unfortunately, due to monetary concerns, they had to trade one of their better pitchers, Javier Vazquez, away in the off-season. Vazquez has frequently underperformed his peripheral numbers, but the last few years he seems to have either figured out his problems from the stretch, simply gotten better luck, or a combination of both, and has been a top contributor; last year he was even a Cy Young contender. Though they did receive Melky Cabrera, who is a decent contributor along with a solid prospect (Arodys Vizcaino), they would likely have been able to keep Vazquez were it not for a grave mishandling of the roster.

Let me take you through the chain of events. First, the Braves offered arbitration to both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, figuring they would decline and the Braves would net draft picks when they signed elsewhere. Then, they signed both Billy Wagner from the Red Sox (giving up their first-round pick in compensation) and Takashi Saito for a total of $10.2 million. Gonzalez declined arbitration and opted for free agency, but Soriano accepted, which the Braves were absolutely not counting on. Because he accepted arbitration, they needed to find him a roster spot, and decided to designate Ryan Church for assignment, who is a solid fourth outfielder when healthy. Then, since they had signed Wagner and Saito, Soriano was superfluous, and was traded to Tampa for Jesse Chavez, who isn’t particularly good. Then, Vazquez was traded for Melky Cabrera and prospects, when Ryan Church is basically a less-healthy, older, left-handed version of the Melkman. So in all, they gave up Vazquez, Church, the 18th pick in the June draft, Soriano, and Gonzalez, and got a below-average outfielder, a prospect, and two old relievers.

Now, maybe the Braves needed to save money and the Vazquez contract was their most tradeable asset (they did save around $9 million in the Vazquez deal). Maybe they felt they couldn’t trust Soriano to be healthy the whole season and wanted to compete this year. Maybe they felt the same way about Church, or maybe they just really like the Melkman. But from here, it seems like the Braves could have let Gonzalez go, NOT signed two old relievers and given up their first round pick, and maybe kept Soriano (making $7.25 mil this year) and Vazquez, and been a better team. Maybe if they were worried about giving the somewhat injury-prone Soriano and Gonzalez big chunks of guaranteed money they shouldn’t have replaced them with a guy who needs platelets injected into his arm for it to not fall apart, and another who has had Tommy John surgery and shown a bad attitude in the past. Maybe if they paid $9 million this year to a very good pitcher he would help them make the playoffs where they would recoup that $9 million. But that’s just the view from up here.

For better or worse, the Braves can afford to make mistakes like their bullpen bungling because their scouting team is so dang good. Growing up in the ’90s playing fantasy baseball, it was always a bad thing when the Braves traded a prospect, and until the Mark Teixeira trade (which sent Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus to the Rangers), there are very few former Braves prospects who reached their potential. The most highly rated prospect who failed was probably Andy Marte, who was traded first for Edgar Renteria and then for Coco Crisp, two much more valuable players. This knack for identifying prospects shows through in the makeup of the team and the fact that they have, over the years, relied very sparingly on free agents. The latest example of this is Jason Heyward, who shot up the minors last year, cranking a .963 OPS at all three levels and is likely to take a spot in the outfield this year at the ripe age of 20, after being selected 14th overall out of high school.

The frustrating thing about the mistakes the team has made is that if they could have kept Vazquez and Soriano, they would likely be the co-favorites along with the Phillies in a somewhat weak division. But without Vazquez, their pitching staff is reliant on Tim Hudson’s healthy return and the continued success of Tommy Hanson, and though Wagner and Saito looked good last year, they are old and injury-prone, which makes their bullpen questionable. On the other side of the ball, they are again relying on too many unsure things, as their best hitters are either old (Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus) or young (Heyward), and some are just not that good (Melky Cabrera, Nate McClouth). It’s very possible that things could go right for the Braves and they win 95 games and the division, but it’s also just as likely that they will suffer a few injuries and underperformances and again finish in the middle of the pack.